PREELECTION APATHY, ALIENATION, AND TALES OF

C O N F I D E N T I A L TUNIS 000746

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/06/2019
TAGS: PREL PHUM KDEM ELAB TS
SUBJECT: PREELECTION APATHY, ALIENATION, AND TALES OF
REPRESSION FROM SOUTHERN TUNISIA

REF: A. TUNIS 741

B. TUNIS 725

C. TUNIS 694 AND PREVIOUS

Classified by Ambassador Gordon Gray for reasons 1.4 (b) and
(d).

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Summary
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1. (C) On a visit to Tunisia's southeast, Poloff found
citizens generally apathetic about the upcoming elections.
Most expressed resignation and said they would vote for Ben
Ali - "he has been there forever and will stay until we have
all gone." Most Tunisian voters we encountered could name
neither the parties involved in the elections nor any of the
other presidential candidates. Opposition party activists
voiced defiance as they continue to operate in a repressive
environment. They described continuous government harassment
and called on the USG to publicly condemn the election as a
sham. Notwithstanding the tangible general apathy toward the
election, we also found indications of popular support for
the banned Islamist Nahda party. Several contacts also
thought attitudes toward the U.S., which had improved after
President Obama's election, were again on the decline. End
summary.


2. (C) Poloff spent five days visiting three provincial
capitals in Tunisia's southeast: The petro-chemical town of
Gabes, the trading town of Mednine, close to the Libyan
border, and the island of Djerba, known for its tourist
industry and its small but thriving Jewish community. Along
the way she talked with dozens of local Tunisians, including
bus and air passengers, taxi drivers, merchants, restaurant
workers, political party activists, and a provincial head of
the Tunisian Human Rights League. Poloff was followed by
plainclothes security for much of her itinerary, and police
questioned (telephonically) several of our interlocutors.

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Street-Level Opinions: Apathy and Resignation
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3. (C) Asked if they were going to vote in the election, many
"average" Tunisians encountered in public settings told
poloff reflexively, "I have my voter's identification card,"
-- meaning they are on the right side of the regime and will
vote for Ben Ali. Tunisians young and old encountered on the
street during this trip said they would vote for President
Ben Ali. Many added, "there is no other choice," or "he
provides security."


4. (C) A storekeeper we spoke with laughed and said Ben Ali
is just like Qadhafi; he will stay until we are all gone.
Anecdotal evidence suggests those whom the regime suspects of
less than total support for Ben Ali often have a hard time
getting their voting cards, while other Tunisians face
various forms of peer and bureaucratic pressure to vote. One
woman in her mid-twenties who - unlike most women encountered
on the trip - was not wearing a head scarf, and said she did
not bother to vote because her father voted for her. A taxi
driver, outspoken on a variety of issues, said he had never
voted and would not this time. He would vote in the United
States or even in Iran but not in Tunisia, as there was no
point.

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Sub-Surface Support for Islamists?
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5. (C) Our contacts in the (secular) opposition Progressive
Development Party believed that the banned Islamist Nahda
("Renewal") Party enjoyed considerable public support, even
though the government had driven the group underground. A
talkative man in his sixties, whom poloff met in Djerba, was
outwardly religious and said he sometimes served as an Imam
at the mosque. He said he had learned English from Peace
Corps volunteers in the 1960s. He said he got involved in
politics in the 1991 elections but when he saw the
consequences (i.e. many Nahda supporters thrown in prison),
he quit politics and now he does not get involved. He has
his store and his garden and that is enough. He added that
it took 10-12 years before his "neighbors" stopped reminding
him that they knew he did not support Ben Ali.


6. (C) When asked about the other party candidates, only two
people were able to come up with the name of a candidate and
only one knew how many other candidates there were. Most
people said they had no idea about the other parties, their
platforms, or their candidates. They said the other parties
do not matter, they do not have a chance, and they do not

have an impact. The two people who volunteered information
about other parties referred, without prompting, to the Nahda
Party, although one person said that even that party did not
have much of a platform.

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A Long, Hard Slog Under a Heavy Boot
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7. (C) While Tunis is covered with "Ben Ali 2009" posters,
there were none in Djerba and only a few in Gabes and
Mednine. In Gabes, the headquarters of the ruling Democratic
Constitutional Rally (RCD),was wrapped in bunting and
municipal workers were putting up banners announcing a
government speech. In contrast, offices of the opposition
PDP in Gabes and Mednine were small, 2 to 3 rooms, with spare
furnishings and political banners on the inside walls. The
PDP is one of the three actually independent political
parties in Tunisia (the other two are El-Tajdid, the former
Tunisian Communist Party, and the FTDL, the Democratic Forum
for Labor and Liberties).


8. (C) The PDP activists said if they put banners outside
their own offices, the police would rip them down promptly.
Asked about the government's rejection of 17 of the PDP's 26
proposed legislative candidate slates, the PDP
representatives claimed the pattern was to approve only in
areas where the party had a weak organization and less
popular support. The PDP activists claimed their party was
fairly strong in Gabes, with 500 members, as opposed to the
southeastern cities of Tataouine and Zarzis, where they only
had 30 members each.


9. (C) The PDP activists recounted a pattern of persistent
government harassment. When they try to hold seminars or
events the police block the roads and prevent people from
attending, especially young people. In both Gabes and
Mednine, the party had had trouble renting offices. In
Gabes, the local security had circulated a petition in the
neighborhood to try and get the neighbors to protest and
force the PDP to move. This had not succeeded. In Medinine,
it took two years before the party was able to find tenable
office space. The head of the PDP's office in Gabes told us
that two years ago, he had asked for and was granted a
meeting with the Governor. However, when he arrived for the
meeting, the Governor's office was surrounded by police who
would not let him enter.


10. (C) One PDP representative was the head of the
legislative list for the small southeastern city of Siliana,
and the other party members thought he might actually make it
into Parliament. He said that if he got into Parliament, he
had no illusions about what he would be able to achieve. He
added that the Tunisian Parliament never drafts legislation,
nor does it even change legislation submitted by the
government. However, his presence in parliament would still
offer a forum to discuss the major problems of unemployment
and corruption, he thought.


11. (C) Two activists, one a PDP member and one a lawyer
affiliated with the Tunisian Human Rights League (LTDH),both
said they had paid the price for trying to visit the
politically sensitive mining area of Gafsa, the scene of
civil unrest in 2008. The PDP member said his car was
stopped by police and had his finger broken as a warning not
to go to Gafsa. The lawyer said that after he defended some
of the Gafsa demonstrators tried in early 2009, he was put in
prison himself for a minor traffic accident and fined TD
1,000 ($746). The average monthly salary is about $300. The
government relies on traffic fines, permit requests, and
other bureaucratic procedures to control and restrict
citizens' behavior, he opined.

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Attitudes Toward the USG: Post-election Euphoria Fading
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12. (C) Several of our civil society/activist contacts in the
south voiced their concern that President Obama was losing
popularity in the region. They were concerned that the
United States would not support democratic activists as it
had in the past and they were concerned that the U.S. was not
changing its policy toward the Israeli-Palestinian dispute.

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Comment
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13. (C) Our observations from this trip reinforced our sense
that the Ben Ali regime has left little to chance in
preempting all but the most token showing of opposition in
the upcoming presidential and legislative elections. The

public's apathy and alienation from the political process may
translate into smooth sailing for the regime at the October
25 polls but do not bode well for the country's long term
political development. End comment.
GRAY