PDP WITHDRAWS FROM OCTOBER 2009 PRESIDENTIAL

C O N F I D E N T I A L TUNIS 000643

SIPDIS

NEA/MAG (HAYES)
PARIS AND LONDON FOR NEA WATCHER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/01/2019
TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM KDEM TS
SUBJECT: PDP WITHDRAWS FROM OCTOBER 2009 PRESIDENTIAL
ELECTIONS

REF: A. TUNIS 569

B. 08 TUNIS 144

Classified by CDA Marc Desjardins for reasons 1.4 (b) and
(d).

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Summary
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1. (C) At an August 25 press conference, the Progressive
Democratic Party (PDP) announced its withdrawal from the
October 25 Presidential elections. PDP president Nejib
Chebbi stated that he will not run for president in the
October elections, nor will the party field any other
candidate for president. Chebbi slammed the GOT for
fostering a climate of repression, contrary to the principle
of free, fair and transparent elections. Chebbi held the GOT
responsible for closing off opportunities for Tunisian youths
and warned that the GOT's approach would ultimately endanger
Tunisia's political stability and national security. The
party leadership says that it will now focus solely on
legislative elections and has 26 candidates ready to contest
elections in the different provinces. The PDP's withdrawal
from the race effectively leaves only four "tame" and/or
marginal candidates running against Ben Ali. End Summary.

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Chebbi and Party Drop Out
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2. (SBU) In a press conference on August 25, the eve of the
official deadline for presentation of presidential candidates
to the Constitutional Council, the Progressive Democratic
Party (PDP) announced its withdrawal from the October 2009
presidential elections. PDP President Nejib Chebbi stated
that he will not run for president and that no other party
member will represent the party in the presidential race.
While technically ineligible to run after the GOT's revisions
to the electoral law, PDP leaders had previously said that
Chebbi would "run" anyway. Chebbi denounced the complete
absence of basic freedoms, fairness, and transparency in the
run-up to elections and stated that the October 2009
elections will simply perpetuate President Ben Ali's tenure
as "president for life." In the last elections in 2004, the
PDP declined to contest either the presidential or the
legislative elections, on the same grounds.


3. (SBU) Chebbi explained that he had announced his bid for
the presidency in February 2008 as a political maneuver to
prevent the GOT from changing the electoral laws. Although
the PDP's tactics failed to realize a climate of free and
open elections, Chebbi claimed the party's efforts resulted
in credible gains. He asserted that the party succeeded in
appealing to the conscience of many Tunisians and their right
to participate in the electoral process. Chebbi held the GOT
and Ben Ali responsible for "shutting all opportunities for
Tunisian youths" to be freely engaged in the Tunisian
electoral process and opined that this decision will
ultimately endanger the country's political stability and
national security.


4. (SBU) Chebbi also stated that despite the PDP's withdrawal
from the presidential election, the party supported and
respected the right of Ahmed Brahim of opposition Party
Ettajdid to submit his candidacy for president to the
Constitutional Council. (Note: Ettajdid, distinct from the
other "opposition" parties running, has been relatively more
independent and less deferential to the GOT. End note.)
Chebbi underlined that, since the PDP is no longer interested
in the presidential elections, he was not endorsing Brahim,
but rather a statement of principled support for the right of
another independent legal opposition party to contest the
presidency.

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The Case for Maya Jribi
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5. (SBU) PDP Secretary General Maya Jribi, the only PDP
member eligible to run for president under the July 2008
Amendment to the electoral law, reiterated Chebbi's
disapproval of the electoral process and the party's complete
withdrawal from the presidential elections. Jribi underlined
that she will not run for president in Chebbi's place, as
some had hoped. Jribi stated that the 2009 elections will be
worse than the 2004 elections, because the Tunisian people
have now been completely deprived of the right to choose

their candidates. Jribi added that the GOT is disregarding
all democratic and election competition principles by
selecting candidates for the opposition parties.


6. (SBU) Jribi claimed that the GOT, under the pretext of
preserving national sovereignty, blatantly ignored the
opposition request for an amendment to the electoral code and
the presence of foreign election observers. She commended
the PDP's responsible reaction to all the hostile campaign
pressure exerted by the GOT following the nomination of
Chebbi as their presidential candidate. She accused the GOT
of frustrating the electoral process and keeping the Tunisian
people in continuous political subservience.


7. (C) In a separate meeting on August 26, Mokthar Trifi,
President of the Tunisian Human Rights League (LTDH) told
poloff that two days prior to the PDP press conference, he
and other members of Tunisian civil society privately met
with Chebbi and tried to convince him to consider letting
Jribi represent the party at the presidential elections.
Trifi claimed that Chebbi and the PDP had decided that since
the elections were already pre-determined, it served the
party better to take a political stand and withdraw
completely from the presidential elections. This political
stand will serve as the party's continuous denouncement of
the elections and GOT politics.

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The Next Step for the PDP
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8. (SBU) At the August 25 press conference, both Chebbi and
Jribi stressed that although the PDP was withdrawing from the
presidential elections, the party was preparing to contest
the legislative elections. Chebbi said that the legislative
elections were devoid of any laws preventing the party and
members of the opposition from participating in the
elections. The PDP has a list of 26 candidates for elections
in all 24 provinces and also has backup candidates should the
GOT refuse to let any of the party's candidates run. Chebbi
stated that the PDP will focus on the legislative seats to
continue its struggle for political integration and openness.
In the days following the PDP's press conference, no
domestic media carried the story except for their own party
weekly, with only Al-Jazeera (strongly disliked by the GOT)
holding a phone interview with Chebbi on August 26.

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Comment
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9. (C) This move is a significant about-face for the PDP,
which had been vowing to contest this race "against all odds"
(ref A). The intriguing question begged by this move is
what their true motive was? Were Chebbi or the PDP
successfully threatened or blackmailed by the GOT? Or did
they belatedly recalculate that a boycott of the presidential
race would be a more profound statement than a defiant,
uphill run? They may simply have decided their resources
would be better spent trying to secure a few seats in
parliament. The PDP's withdrawal leaves three, and possibly
four, opposition parties in the running: the People's Unity
Party (PUP),the Ettajdid Movement, the United Democratic
Union (UDU) and possibly the Democratic Forum for Labor and
Liberties (FDTL). Of these, Ettajdid and the FDTL are the
least "tame". End comment.
DESJARDINS