TUNISIA PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION THREE MONTH COUNTDOWN

C O N F I D E N T I A L TUNIS 000557

SIPDIS

NEA/MAG (MHAYES)
LONDON AND PARIS FOR NEA WATCHER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/28/2019
TAGS: PGOV PHUM TS
SUBJECT: TUNISIA PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION THREE MONTH COUNTDOWN

REF: A. TUNIS 284

B. TUNIS 167

C. 08 TUNIS 1128

D. 08 TUNIS 298

Classified By: Charge Marc Desjardins for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)

SUBJECT: Tunisia,s Presidential Elections Three Month
Countdown

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SUMMARY
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1. (C) Tunisian Presidential and Legislative elections
(Chamber of Deputies) are scheduled for October 25. The
outcome of the Presidential election is a foregone
conclusion, and issimply a question of how large a win the
GOT will declare for President Ben Ali. The President was
been collecting endorsements for over a year but the official
campaign season is limited to the two weeks before the
election. The opposition parties are, for the most part,
resigned to the presidential outcome and are jockeying among
themselves to see what percentage of the 53 Parliamentary
seats reserved for the opposition they can win. The
remaining 159 seats will go to the ruling Democratic
Constitutional Rally (RCD). A few of the parties are to a
limited extent trying to challenge or expose the government's
control over the election by pushing the limits imposed on
campaigning and challenging the restrictions on presidential
candidates. So far, the GOT has refused to allow any
independent international election monitors. A National
Election Observatory has been established, as in previous
elections, which will draft a post-election report for the
President. End Summary.

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Election Preparations Proceed
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2. (SBU) Preparations for the elections are moving ahead.
The date for the Presidential elections is set by the
constitution on the last Sunday in October, this year October

25. In theory, there could be a second round if no single
party were to win an absolute majority the first time.
Citizens living abroad will be able to vote starting October
17-24. President Ben Ali, who announced his candidacy last
year at the RCD Party Congress, has in effect already been
campaigning, mostly through posters and obtaining
endorsements, for over a year., The actual campaign season
is limited by the electoral code to the 15 days just before
election day and closes 24 hours before voting begins.
Campaigning is done by party list, which have to be approved
by the Constitutional Council (appointed by Ben Ali) before a
party can run campaign messages. In the past the
Constitutional Council has effectively prevented parties from
campaigning by not approving the list. Party campaign
messages also have to be approved by the Ministry of
Interior.


3. (SBU) The GOT announced July 28 the creation of the
National Election Observatory. Abdelwahab Bahi, former
President of the Bar Association and head of the 2004
Presidential and 2005 legislative election monitoring
observatories was named again to head the committee. He has
appointed a group of 27 magistrates, lawyers, and political
figures to help him follow and note violations of the
campaign and election laws. Among them are: Borhan Bsaies a
journalist who serves as the GOT's spokesperson on Al
Jazeera; Abdallah Helali, former president of the national
appeals court appointed by Ben Ali; Abdelhamid Riahi, senior
chief editor of As Shourouq, a pro-government newspaper;
Hatem Kotrane, a member of the government's Committee for
Human Rights and Essential Liberties. The organization will
be responsible for writing a report to the President on the
management of the elections. The report written after the
2004 elections was never published; only excerpts were made
available during a press conference. In addition the
Tunisian Human Rights League and the National Syndicate of
Tunisian Journalists have both announced their intentions to
create election monitoring committees. Attempts by the
European Union to enlist GOT interest in EU election monitors
have been met with silence. The EU will not attempt to send
monitors unless there is a formal request by the GOT.


4. (U) The ruling Democratic Constitutional Rally (RCD)
announced July 28 that Minister of State Abdelaziz Ben Dhia
would be the party's election coordinator with the support of
26 other senior party members including the Ministers of
Defense, Foreign Affairs, and Transport; and various
Secretaries of State, Senior Advisors to the President and
others. These government officials will not have to renounce
their government positions during the campaign. They will be
organized in eight subcommittees headed as follows:

Political Speech - Minister of State Abdelaziz Ben Dhia
Organization/Supervision - Minister of Interior Rafik Belhaj
Kacem
Political Map - Foued M'bazaa, Speaker of the Chamber of
Deputies
Fund Raising - Abdallah Kallel, Speaker of the Chamber of
Advisors
Information and Propaganda - Ahmed Iyadh Ouderni, President's
Chief-of-Staff
Pamphlets and Publications - Alifa Farouk, RCD Political
Bureau Manager
Support and Election Campaign - Mohamed Ghariani, RCD
Secretary General
Guests - Minister of Foreign Affairs Abdelwaheb Abdallah


5. (SBU) Who Can Vote: In 2008 the President lowered the
voting age to 18 from 20, during the "Year of Youth." Anyone
can vote, including citizens living abroad, except those
serving in the security services, convicted criminals, people
institutionalized, in bankruptcy, or under judicial
proceedings. Individuals can register to vote at their local
town hall at specific times during the year. The problem for
those actually interested in voting is whether or not an they
areallowed to register, or whether their documents are
accepted or are lost. Even after they have registered
sometimes they never actually receive their election card.


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The Presidential Candidates
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6. (U) In March 2008 Ben Ali announced a one time, for this
election only, amendment to the constitution to change the
requirements for presidential candidates (Ref D). The
change, requiring party candidates to be the elected leader
of their party for at least two years, effectively knocked
three potential opposition candidates out of the running:
Progressive Democratic Party (PDP) leader Najib Chabbi,
Democratic Forum for Labor and Liberties (FDTL) leader
Muastapha Ben Jaafr, and Green Party for Progress (PVP) Green
Party for Progress Monji Khamassi.


7. (C) Despite the legal obstacles, PDP and FDTL are still
plannning to run candidates. Thus, five parties, plus the
ruling Democratic Constitutional Rally (RCD),will nominate
candidates: Popular Unity Party (PUP) Secretary General
Mohamed Boushiha; Renewal Movement (et-Tajdid) Secretary
General Ahmed Brahim; Unionist Democratic Union (UDU)
Secretary General Ahmed Inoubli; FDTL Secretary General
Mustapha Ben Jaafar; and PDP former Secretary General Najib
Chebi. PDP has been debating internally whether or not the
current Secretary General, Maya Jribi, should run instead of
Najib Chebbi but for now Chebi remains the party's candidate.
Chebbi told Acting P/E Chief July 27 that he also plans to
defy Article 62 of the electoral code prohibiting politicians
from using international television networks or media for
their campaigns. He was willing to accept the potential fine
of TD 25,000 ($ 18,000). The parties will have to present
their presidential candidates to the Constitutional Council
for approval between August 26 and September 24. Legislative
candidates are to be presented September 20-26.

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Support for Ben Ali
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8. (C) Three of the "loyal opposition" parties have declared
their support for Ben Ali's candidacy: the Social Liberal
Party (PSL),the Social Democratic Movement (MDS),and the
Green Party for Progress (PVP),and will not be running
candidates. July 16 the National Tunisian Workers Union
(UGTT) declared its support for Ben Ali. It also gave its
support to Ben Ali in the 2004 elections. However at that
time the decision was made by an actual vote of the union's
National Administrative Council. This time the decision was
announced by the National Administrative Council after an
acclamation of support. Kalima, an on-line news source,
reported July 18 that 12 of the regional offices and sector
unions of the UGTT had protested the decision (the regional
offices of Sfax, Kairouan, Mahdia, Ben Arous, Jendouba and
unions in the sectors of primary and secondary education,
health, communications, postal, youth, and university medical
doctors). However, once the UGTT declared its support for
Ben Ali, other major associations started to announce their
support as well including the industry and commerce
association (UTICA); the agricultural and fishing union,
(UTAP); and the women's association(UNFT).

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Legislative Elections
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9. (C) A March 24 Chamber of Deputies amendment to the
electoral code increased the overall number of seats in the
Parliament from 189 to 212. Simultaneously, it increased the
percentage of seats reserved for opposition parties from 20
to 25 percent (from 37 seats to 53),and reduced the
percentage the RCD can receive from 80 to 75 percent (from
152 seats to 159 seats). The change was engineered by
amending Article 72 of the electoral code to reduce the
number of citizens represented by each seat from 52,500 to
48,700. The 53 seats allowed to the opposition will be
divided among the parties based on their results in the
elections. Some of the parties say even this step is not
transparent since the GOT will essentially determine how many
votes each party will "win."


10. (C) PDP has determined that it will run a list of
candidates in the legislative election reversing its position
in the 2004 elections. PDP has suffered from not having any
seat in the Parliament during the last four years, and
therefore has not been receiving any government funding.

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Comment
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11. (C) Election fever, such as it is in Tunisia, is
starting. The interest is mainly among the political elite,
with the general public still ignoring the issue. Voter
apathy is high and so the real measure of the President's
popularity or lack thereof may eventually be read in the
overall voter turnout, for which there have been inflated
figures published by the Ministry of Interior in past
elections.
DESJARDINS