SCENSETTER FOR VISIT OF SPECIAL ENVOY MITCHELL TO

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TUNIS 000226

SIPDIS

STATE FOR S/E MITCHELL, NEA/FO, NEA/IPA, AND NEA/MAG
STATE ALSO FOR NEA/SCA/EX AND A/OPR/OS - CAMERON

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/07/2019
TAGS: OVIP PREL KPAL ASCH OFDP TS
SUBJECT: SCENSETTER FOR VISIT OF SPECIAL ENVOY MITCHELL TO
TUNISIA

Classified By: Ambassador Robert F. Godec for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)

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Summary
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1. (C) Senator Mitchell, my team and I look forward to
working with you during your visit to Tunis. President Ben
Ali and Foreign Minister Abdallah are pleased that you have
included Tunisia on your itinerary and look forward to
hearing first-hand your assessment of prospects for
Israeli-Palestinian and Israeli-Arab peace. While Tunisia is
solidly in the moderate camp on these issues, its influence
is relatively small within the Arab League. Regardless, the
mere fact of your visit for consultations will give the GOT a
boost. Meanwhile, from the Embassy's perspective, your visit
also represents an opportunity to press President Ben Ali to
stand down on the 9.1 million Tunisian Dinar (approximately
US $ 6.6 million) tax assessment levied against the American
Cooperative School in Tunis. We recommend you stress the
value of our long-standing and positive ties, as demonstrated
by your consultations with them. The GOT leadership needs to
understand, however, that failure to resolve the ACST issue
will have serious consequences for bilateral relations. End
Summary.

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Background
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3. (C) Tunisia styles itself "a country that works". Ben Ali
and other Tunisian leaders often contrast their successes
with the problems elsewhere in the region. There is much in
what they say. While Tunisians grumble privately about
corruption by the First Lady's family, there is an abiding
appreciation for Ben Ali's success in steering his country
clear of the instability and violence that have plagued
Tunisia's neighbors. Recent events have underscored this
accomplishment and the continuing threat: Tunisian security
forces took down a terror cell in December 2006-January 2007;
we were reportedly among the group's targets. In February
2008, al-Qaeda in the lands of the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM)
kidnapped two Austrian tourists who were in the desert along
the Tunisian-Algerian border.


4. (C) Tunisians also widely recognize, and welcome, the
country's social successes. Tunisia is a model for the
region on women's rights; its 1956 Personal Status Code
abolished polygamy and required consent for marriage, among
other protections. Women today play an important role in the
public and private sectors.


5. (C) There is also real economic progress. GDP growth has
averaged five percent over the past decade, and the Tunisian
people enjoy a relatively high standard of living. About 80
percent of Tunisians are considered middle class, and live in
family-owned homes. Notwithstanding the progress,
unemployment remains very high, officially estimated at 14
percent. But it is generally acknowledged to be higher in
certain regions and much higher in the 20-30 age bracket,
particularly among university graduates. The average
Tunisian's purchasing power is under pressure due to world
commodity price increases. These strains have manifested
themselves most acutely through protests and arrests in the
southern mining basin of Gafsa province. The GOT responded
with a very heavy show of force and long jail sentences for
some demonstration leaders.


6. (C) In the political arena, however, progress is barely
perceptible. Ben Ali is running for a fifth five-year term
in Tunisia's next elections, most likely in October, 2009.
There is no chance the elections will be free or fair.
Freedom of expression and freedom of association are severely
constrained, and independent opposition parties are not
allowed to operate effectively. Indeed, one authentic
opposition candidate is no longer eligible to run, due to a
recent constitutional amendment.

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Tunisia and the Region
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7. (C) Tunisia has long played a moderating role in the
region. Former President Bourguiba set this policy in motion
with his 1965 speech in Jericho in which he called for a
two-state compromise to the Israeli-Palestinian dispute. The
GOT supports Mahmoud Abbas, leadership of the Palestinian
Authority. Tunisia rejects the Arab League boycott of
Israeli goods. Although it closed its trade mission in Tel

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Aviv and that of the Israelis in Tunis in 2000, the GOT has
from time to time taken part in quiet discussions with
Israeli officials. Foreign Minister Abdallah represented
Tunisia at the Annapolis conference and has been supportive
of our efforts to promote Israeli-Palestinian negotiations.
Tunisia is also home to the irascible PLO Minister for
External Relations Farrouq Qaddoumi, who stayed behind in
Tunis when the rest of the PLO returned to the Palestinian
Territories. Qaddoumi reportedly promised Yasser Arafat that
he would remain in exile until the creation of a Palestinian
State.


8. (C) Tunisia is like-minded on Iran, is an ally in the
fight against terrorism, and has maintained an Embassy in
Iraq at the Charge level. Moreover, Tunisia has recently
signed a debt forgiveness agreement with the GOI on Paris
Club terms; it is the first Arab country to do so. However,
the GOT assiduously avoids getting in front of the Arab
League consensus on most foreign policy issues. Moreover,
when other interests are at stake, the GOT is prone to
waffle. It is not clear that the GOT has a guiding principle
for its foreign policy other than to "get along with
everyone." To the extent that GOT leaders speak in
generalities about their moderate foreign policy stance, we
remind them that Tunisia's moderation does not help us,
unless its views are made public and its influence is used
actively in international fora.

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President Ben Ali and Foreign Minister Abdallah
-------------- --


9. (C) President Ben Ali will appreciate being consulted on
regional issues, especially developments on
Israeli-Palestinian negotiations. He can be expected to
express concern about the right-leaning government formed by
Prime Minister Netanyahu. For domestic political reasons, he
will express solidarity with the Palestinian people, and he
will take credit with having done so publicly. He may also
underscore GOT concerns about perceived Israeli excesses,
making the case that only the United States can keep the
Government of Israel in check. Having recently participated
in the Doha Arab League Summit, he may have insights of his
own to share with you about inter-Arab dynamics. If Ben Ali
is "on his game," he will be affable, open and engaged. Ben
Ali, who is 72 years old, reportedly has health problems and
they may affect the quality and tenor of the meeting.


10. (C) Foreign Minister Abdelwaheb Abdallah will also play
an important part in your visit. Abdallah can be charming in
meetings, but he rarely departs from standard GOT talking
points. He has been known to open his meetings with lengthy
soliloquies about Tunisia's political, social, and economic
successes and moderate positions on regional issues. This is
the spin that Abdallah himself crafted during his years as
Presidential Advisor responsible for domestic media control
and international media spin. During his almost four-year
tenure as Foreign Minister, Abdallah has maintained
significant influence -- if not control -- over the local
media.

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The American Cooperative School in Tunis
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11. (C) The Tunisian Ministry of Finance has issued a tax
decree against the American Cooperative School of Tunis
(ACST) for alleged arrears in the amount of 9.1 million
Tunisian Dinars (approximately US $6.6 million). The decree
gives ACST until May 23 to pay the arrears, money it does not
have and cannot borrow. ACST acknowledges some liability,
but only for about 1 million Tunisian Dinars. The Ambassador
has held several meetings with senior GOT officials and
delivered a clear message that the GOT's actions may bankrupt
and force the school to close, which would have serious
consequences for US-Tunisian relations. He has taken
exception to the GOT unilateral action in contravention of 50
years of practice and diplomatic exchanges. Ministry of
Foreign Affairs officials insist the GOT's action is
"technical" not political.


12. (C) The Foreign Ministry has accused Ambassador Godec of
politicizing the issue by alerting the African Development
Bank and other Ambassadors of the school's impending closure.
We have defended these consultations, pointing out that it
would have been negligent for the USG to fail to warn the
school's constituents. An April 8 letter from Foreign
Minister Abdallah to Acting A/S Feltman represents the first
clear evidence that evidence the GOT is finally prepared to

TUNIS 00000226 003 OF 003


negotiate with the goal of resolving this matter in a
mutually agreeable fashion. Your meeting with President Ben
Ali represents a critical opportunity to put this issue to
him directly and to emphasize the importance of the school to
us.


13. (C) The Ambassador has already previewed with senior GOT
officials that the forced closure of the school would provoke
a policy review in Washington of our overall relations and
our bilateral assistance programs. The majority of our
assistance is to the military and included some $24 million
in FY 2008, although it is likely to be much lower this year.
The Ambassador has noted that the Congress will have to be
briefed and may react as well. Noting the press coverage of
the closure of the American School in Damascus, he also
predicted negative international media coverage.


14. (C) It will probably be necessary to tailor your message
on the school as late as the day before your meeting ) there
have been developments on the issue daily for the past couple
of weeks. In general, though, it would be helpful to
underscore that the MOF's unilateral assessment is contrary
to 50 years of diplomatic exchanges and practices. You can
express appreciation for Abdallah's offer of negotiations,
but add that the MOF should first rescind the final tax
decree. At the start of the new Administration, we should
urge Ben Ali to focus on how to improve relations, not
undermine them.

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Bilateral Engagement
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15. (C) In brief, while we have enjoyed a long-standing and
generally positive bilateral relationship with Tunisia,
difficulties remain. In many ways, the ACST tax issue is
symptomatic of the reality that the GOT is slow to engage,
often unresponsive, and periodically takes counterproductive
steps. Underlying some GOT actions is a distrust of our
motives, and specifically with respect to the promotion of
democracy and human rights. In addition, GOT leaders bristle
at public criticism. For example, Abdallah convoked the
Ambassador to express his "disgust" that Tunisia was
condemned for its treatment of journalists in the May 1, 2008
White House statement on World Press Freedom.

16.(C) Many of the difficulties are also the result of the
controls imposed by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. These
restrictions limit the Embassy's ability to engage with other
ministries, and with universities, business organizations and
even the country's labor union. While these controls affect
all Embassies, not just ours, the effect is to limit the
quality and depth of our relations.


17. (C) In our contacts with Tunisian officials, they
emphasize our strong ties of over 200 years. But they rarely
move from the general to the specific. Your visit is an
opportunity to consult with the Tunisians on Middle East
peace but also a chance to make clear that we expect more
from countries with whom we have close relations. If there
are specific steps that the GOT could take with respect to
Middle East peace, you should press them. By the same token,
if Tunisia is prepared to open up and do more on issues of
concern to the United States, e.g., on the Israeli-Arab
front, we are prepared to look for ways to deepen our
relationship.

Please visit Embassy Tunis' Classified Website at:
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/tunis/index.c fm
Godec