HEAD OF LIBYAN "THINK TANK" OUTLINES HUMAN DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TRIPOLI 000386

SIPDIS

STATE FOR NEA/MAG; COMMERCE FOR NATE MASON; ENERGY FOR GINA
ERICKSON; PARIS AND LONDON FOR NEA WATCHERS; CAIRO FOR ALEX
SEVERENS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 5/7/2019
TAGS: ECON, PGOV, LY, EFIN
SUBJECT: HEAD OF LIBYAN "THINK TANK" OUTLINES HUMAN DEVELOPMENT
STRATEGY

REF: 08 TRIPOLI 917

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CLASSIFIED BY: J. Chris Stevens, CDA, U.S. Embassy Tripoli, U.S.
Department of State.
REASON: 1.4 (b),(d)
1. (C) Summary: Mahmoud Jibril, Chair of the National Economic
Development Board and the former head of the National Planning
Council, discussed strategies for developing Libya's human
resources in a recent meeting with the Ambassador. Jibril
highlighted the need to replace the country's decrepit
infrastructure and train Libyans to maintain and run their new
airports, schools and hospitals. Jibril welcomed American
companies, universities and hospitals to participate in this
endeavor. End summary.

LIBYA'S "THINK TANK" TACKLES PROJECT PLANNING AFTER THE FACT

2. (C) The Ambassador discussed Libya's human development
strategy in a May 6 courtesy call on Mahmoud Jibril, Chair of
the National Economic Development Board (NEDB),an organization
that Jibril likened to a "think tank" of multi-disciplinary
experts. Before the March 2009 cabinet shuffle, Jibril was
simultaneously in charge of the NEDB and the National Planning
Council, but now he directs only the NEDB. He reports directly
to the prime minister. A U.S.-educated PhD in strategic
planning, Jibril touched on familiar themes, such as Libya's
need to diversify its economy away from oil (reftel),but he
also fleshed out how Libya is tracking 11,000 development
projects.

3. (C) According to Jibril, there are 11,000 development
projects in Libya spanning several sectors, with the bulk of
projects focusing on infrastructure. The NEDB's role in these
projects is to "pave the way" for private sector development,
and to create a strategic partnership between private companies
and the government. There is a still a "gap of distrust"
dividing the two. As to whether Libya has a Master Plan that
includes all the 11,000 projects, Jibril admitted that in the
past two years, Libya had started executing projects without
such a plan. However, the NEDB has been working with experts
from Ernst and Young, the Oxford Group, and lately with five
consultants from UNDP to advise the prime minister on the best
sequencing and pacing of the projects in order to decrease
poverty and unemployment. He explained they were developing a
"mapping room" to show all the projects, in a similar way to how
a navy tracks its submarines all over the world. This "room"
will use econometric models to demonstrate the results of
different plans. The NEDB also plans to publish an assessment
of the projects Libya has embarked on thus far, including plans
for the future, in July. Companies in various sectors that
might have an interest in working in Libya would be able to
review the data and decide if any of the projects were
attractive enough for them to invest in. In the meanwhile, he
said the General People's Committee for Planning (Ministry of
Planning-equivalent) should be able to provide details on
Libya's ongoing and projected projects.

BRICKS, MORTAR AND HUMAN INFRASTRUCTURE

4. (C) Jibril stressed that Libya needs not only new schools,
houses, hospitals, and roads but also a plan to manage and
maintain all these new facilities and projects. This would
involve training Libyans and in effect, "rebuilding human
beings." He said the United States could help by encouraging
people-to-people contacts. He suggested U.S. universities be
paired with Libyan ones. If a U.S. educational institution were
established in Libya, in his view, this would be a lasting
investment that would withstand any political changes, citing
the examples of the American Universities of Beirut and Cairo.

5. (C) As for opportunities for U.S. companies, Jibril said
Libya was "opening widely and very fast" and that the world
economic crisis had not hit Libya. He characterized the economy
as being "in a liquid phase, and not yet solidified," with many
opportunities for foreign companies willing to take the risk to
come here. He recommended U.S. firms focus on strategic
projects, i.e., ones that touch people's lives, such as
education and healthcare. Libya would also need help managing
facilities, such as airports. He contrasted Libya to the Gulf
area, which he thought would remain unstable for the next ten
years due to tensions with Iran. Libya, on the other hand, has
a stable regime and is "virgin country" for investors.

6. (C) Regarding possible programs with the U.S. Embassy in
Tripoli, Jibril noted NEDB was still reviewing six proposals
from American universities to train Libyan diplomats. He
expected the internal review to take another week. A U.S.
proposal in the economic sphere, via the U.S. Department of
Commerce Commercial Law Development Program, would send NEDB

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staff on a study tour of small business incubators in the U.S.
This had to be postponed until September or October in order to
give the NEDB staff time to assess the needs of their business
advising program.

7. (C) Comment: With a PhD in strategic planning from the
University of Pittsburgh, Jibril is a serious interlocutor who
"gets" the U.S. perspective. He is also not shy about sharing
his views of U.S. foreign policy, for example, opining that the
U.S. spoiled a golden opportunity to capitalize on its "soft
power" (McDonald's, etc.) after the fall of the Soviet Union in
1989 by putting "boots on the ground" in the Middle East. At
the same time, his organization has a daunting task to tackle,
in terms of rationalizing 11,000 development projects in the
chaotic Libyan government bureaucracy and also, to train Libyans
to work in new sectors outside of the hydrocarbons industry.
Jibril has stated American companies and universities are
welcome to join him in this endeavor and we should take him up
on his offer. End comment.
CRETZ