BURMA WATCHERS STRESSING PRAGMATISM

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TOKYO 000745

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EAP/J

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/24/2019
TAGS: PREL PHUM JA BM
SUBJECT: BURMA WATCHERS STRESSING PRAGMATISM

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Classified By: CDA James P. Zumwalt for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) SUMMARY: Embassy Tokyo interlocutors are looking for a
pragmatic way forward on Burma, particularly as Rangoon plans
for next year's national elections. MOFA First Southeast
Asia Division Director Keichi Ono offered Embassy Tokyo
general impressions on the political climate in Burma,
Japan-Burma relations, and the state of post-Nargis recovery
efforts following his trip there in mid-March. He
underscored the importance of striking a balance between a
hardline stance against Rangoon and engagement with the
Burmese Government. Separately, Aung Din, a widely known
former Burmese political prisoner, stressed during a
conversation with Embassy Tokyo that concerned parties should
reevaluate current policies toward Burma and consider a new
approach that pragmatically balances sanctions and
engagement. END SUMMARY

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MOFA Senses Change on the Horizon
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2. (C) Reflecting on his recent trip to Burma, MOFA First
Southeast Asia Division Director Keichi Ono told Embassy
Tokyo on March 19 that he senses potential changes in the
near future in how the international community manages policy
toward Burma. Secretary Clinton's February trip to Japan and
her statement alluding to a U.S. policy review served as
catalyst, he observed. European capitals, too, seem to be
revisiting their policy approach to Burma, Ono said. The
Danish Development Minister, for example, took a trip to
Burma recently and returned home with a positive impression.
All concerned parties are eager to learn about U.S. next
steps on Burma, Ono stated.


3. (C) The Government of Burma and the opposition National
League for Democracy (NLD) are actually both interested in
dialogue, Ono stressed. Sensing some "flexibility" among NLD
members, Ono insisted that pro-democracy icon Aung Sung Suu
Kyi is open to talks with the junta. Moreover, the NLD is
not conditioning a potential Burma visit by UN Secretary
General Ban Ki Moon on the release of the roughly 2000
political prisoners, Ono asserted.


4. (C) Rangoon is already focusing on national elections,
scheduled for some time in 2010, according to Ono. The
military regime has asked local businessmen to run in the
election from key districts. Ono also noted rumors that some
aspirants are already campaigning. Rangoon is putting the
finishing touches on election laws and will publish them
soon, perhaps within a few weeks. The timing of the election
is still uncertain but, similar to the referendum in 2008,
voting will probably take place before the rainy season.


5. (C) Ono noted that the NLD is a bit "uneasy" about any
U.S. policy review. The NLD still has not decided whether
its members will participate in the 2010 elections. The NLD
does not want to relinquish what it sees as one of its
negotiating "cards." The opposition also wants to evaluate
adequately the election registration laws before making a
decision.


6. (C) Ono mentioned that Japan will have multiple
opportunities to engage the Burmese regime, particularly with
ASEAN- and Mekong-Japan Exchange Year-related events
scheduled for the near term. He noted that Japan has pledged
roughly $46 million in post-cyclone Nargis relief in fields
such as agriculture, education, health, and water sanitation.


7. (C) Ono also took the opportunity to describe his
impressions of Nay Pyi Taw, Burma's administrative capital.
He said the area comprises government and military buildings,

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for the most part. There are also four "gorgeous" hotels.
No embassies have relocated to the new site, however.

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Former Political Prisoner Wants Practical Approach
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8. (C) Former political prisoner and current Executive
Director of the U.S. Campaign for Burma Aung Din also
stressed pragmatism when he met Embassy officers following
his trip to Nagoya for the "Global Civil Society and Peaceful
Change in Burma/Myanmar" Conference. He stated that he has
no objections to concerned parties engaging the Burmese
regime. Sanctions and engagement in general "should be used
in combination," Aung Din asserted.


9. (C) Aung Din characterized his feelings about the 2010
elections in a similar way -- "not optimistic, but
pragmatic." He hinted that a number of countries from ASEAN
and Europe are pressing his group to support the elections.
Aung Din's group backs "engagement" with the regime as long
as such activity centers on "real" issues, such as the
release of political prisoners. "The time is now, before the
elections, to engage the regime in the release of all
political prisoners," Aung Din stressed. Elections cannot be
held if all opposition leaders are in jail. Aung Din
underscored the importance of Rangoon changing existing
election laws to allow people with so called "criminal"
records to run for office.


10. (C) The United States needs clear guidelines on dealing
with Burma, Aung Din noted. He welcomed Secretary Clinton's
trip to Asia in February and her statement on Burma, which he
saw as signs of renewed U.S. interest in Southeast Asian
affairs. He agreed that key players -- such as the U.S.,
ASEAN, and the EU -- must speak with one voice on Burma.


11. (C) China can play a key role in managing Burma, but
Beijing is mostly concerned about security-related self
interests, Aung Din noted. Beijing wants to guarantee the
success of its dual pipeline project (for oil and natural
gas) from Burma to Yunnan Province, for example, and has been
meeting with relevant regional ethnic groups directly, Aung
Din explained. He characterized the first meeting, which
took place in Yunnan in November 2008 between ethnic Kokang
leaders and Chinese provincial officials, as a "failure"
because the Chinese side "only made threats."
Representatives from Beijing will handle future discussions,
Aung Din explained.
ZUMWALT