JAPAN'S OPPOSITION PARTY OFFERS VARYING VIEWS ON

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TOKYO 000600

SIPDIS

FOR EAP/J

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/16/2019
TAGS: PREL PGOV JA CH
SUBJECT: JAPAN'S OPPOSITION PARTY OFFERS VARYING VIEWS ON
CHINA

REF: A. 08 TOKYO 3435

B. TOKYO 567

C. 08 TOKYO 2376

D. TOKYO 51

TOKYO 00000600 001.2 OF 003


Classified By: CDA James P. Zumwalt for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) SUMMARY: Japan's largest opposition party, the
Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ),lacks a coherent, unified
message on China policy. Most party members agree on the
importance of strengthening Sino-Japanese ties and believe
that a DPJ-led government would have to handle relations with
China carefully and with extreme diligence. That said, as a
party that includes political transplants from other parties,
the DPJ suffers from a diversity of opinion that makes policy
cohesion difficult. Recent discussions between Embassy Tokyo
and DPJ members across the ideological spectrum suggest that
the same wide range of views that typifies the party's
approach to most topics also applies to DPJ perspectives on
China. In particular, threat perceptions of China differ
greatly among party members. END SUMMARY

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Broad Agreement on Importance of China as Part of Asia Policy
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2. (C) DPJ members from across the ideological spectrum
agree on the importance of Sino-Japanese ties as part of an
overall foreign policy focus on Asia. The party stresses the
importance of deepening relationships with Asian countries,
including China, in its party Manifesto. The Manifesto
highlights the need to build "proactive foreign relations"
and to create a more "Asia-centered" foreign policy. As a
member of Asia, Japan must strengthen "solidarity" and trust
with neighbors, such as China and South Korea (Ref A). DPJ
head Ichiro Ozawa, whose views on China serve as the party's
public default position, meets annually with Chinese
leadership and, last month, urged stronger ties when he met
visiting Chinese Communist Party International Department
Chief Wang Jiarui (Ref B). In slight contrast, Ozawa took a
firm position on China during his meeting with Secretary
Clinton days earlier, calling on Washington and Tokyo to work
together to make sure China's economy avoids any downturn.



3. (C) To build regional trust, Japan must venture beyond
the official development assistance (ODA) policies of the
past, according to Upper House member and DPJ International
Bureau official Masamitsu Naito. ODA was the first phase of
Japan's role in Asia, Naito recently told US Embassy Tokyo.
The second and third phases involved Japanese direct
investment and exporting high-quality goods, respectively.
The current phase includes Japan importing goods and services
from Asia. The country also needs to establish more
cabinet-level political and economic exchanges with Asian
counterparts, as well as open multiple channels of dialogue
beyond the Foreign Ministry. "Parliamentary diplomacy" can
be an effective means to engage the region as a whole,
asserted Naito.

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Threat Perceptions Determine Views on How to Manage Relations
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4. (C) DPJ members differ on the extent to which they see
regional engagement as a means to curb Chinese influence in
Asia. For those DPJ members who downplay the aggressiveness
of Chinese military and political intentions, encircling
Japan's neighbor to the East has little efficacy. Known for
possessing liberal policymaking preferences, four-term Lower

TOKYO 00000600 002.2 OF 003


House DPJ member Shoichi Kondo told Embassy Tokyo that he
sees China as both a "rival" and a "partner" for Japan,
particularly on economic issues because Japan and China are
two of the world's largest economies. He questioned the
wisdom of labeling China as a military "threat" and frowned
upon hardened attitudes on issues such as the longstanding
dispute over gas resources in the East China Sea and
competing territorial claims over the Senkaku Islands. He
underscored the importance of reducing Japanese anxieties
about Chinese military and economic growth. Kondo also
stressed calm in response to last year's announcement from
Beijing about China's aircraft carrier production program.
Generally speaking, all countries "have the right to
self-defense," he asserted. Doubts also remain as to whether
China possesses the technology and knowhow to achieve its
military production goals, he added.


5. (C) Japan should pursue policies that build trust in the
region and create an environment that would compel China to
behave responsibly on the international stage, Kondo urged.
For example, properly atoning for Japan's colonial past would
go a long way toward reducing the animosity that still exists
between Japan and China and toward instilling confidence in
bilateral ties. The relationship has been improving,
particularly after the tenure of former Prime Minister
Junichiro Koizumi, whose visits to Japan's controversial
Yasukuni Shrine regularly exacerbated tensions between the
two countries. Japan and China are holding more leaders'
summits and both sides believe that robust ties are critical,
particularly in the face of current challenges, such as the
global financial crisis, Kondo said.


6. (C) DPJ party centrists such as Naito see regional
engagement as a way simultaneously to check and engage China.
Unlike Kondo, Naito stated leeriness toward China, seeing
Asian outreach as a way to offset Chinese regional influence.
He wants Japan to play more proactive roles in multilateral
gatherings, such as APEC and ASEAN, to strengthen dialogue
with Beijing and to ensure China takes a constructive
approach to regional policymaking.


7. (C) For national security realists, threat perceptions of
China run especially high. Many lawmakers are anxious about
Chinese military intentions, Upper House member Katsuya Ogawa
pointed out. Chinese military spending is increasing by
double digits every year, four-term Lower House DPJ member
Shu Watanabe observed separately. China is conducting
submarine surveillance in preparation for a Taiwan Strait
contingency and to deter potential U.S. involvement. China's
global strategy is to dominate Asia first, then space, and
finally the high seas, Watanabe continued. On the economic
front, China conducts business with non-democratic states,
such as Burma and the Sudan. Beijing has funded the national
parliament building and the city hall edifice in that African
country, Watanabe noted. As to how Japan should deal with
China, Watanabe admitted that he is at a loss and thinks that
his own party, if in power, would not be tough enough.

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Diverse Opinions on Taiwan
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8. (C) Although these interlocutors talked little about
their views on Taiwan, corresponding ideological differences
exist within the party. While many members downplay Chinese
military intentions and discount Chinese threat perceptions,
notable Taiwan supporters, such as party Vice President Seiji
Maehara, call for taking a harder line against China in part
by increasing Japan's defense capabilities and safeguarding
sea lanes. Lower House Member Yoshito Sengoku heads the
DPJ's Japan-Taiwan Friendship Parliamentary Council -- a

TOKYO 00000600 003.2 OF 003


group that includes roughly 70 members, enjoys close ties to
the Democratic People's Party, rather than the KMT, and
advocates human rights and democracy in Taiwan. Another DPJ
group, the Japan-Taiwan Security and Economic Study Group,
supports Taiwan's full and long-term reintegration into the
international community and is headed by well-known
pro-Taiwan Diet member Akihisa Nagashima (Ref C). On the
other hand, former DPJ President Katsuya Okada has told the
Charge that in the case of a Taiwan contingency, Japan would
not make its territory availabe to U.S. forces because it
would take Japan "generations" to recover from such a
decision (Ref D).

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Bio Notes
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9. (C) Shoichi Kondo studied in Beijing from 1981-1983. He
speaks Mandarin well and has a staff aide who speaks the
language fluently. Kondo has deep interest in Chinese and
Korean affairs. Since his second term as a Diet member,
Kondo has regularly visited China and has participated in
activities such as tree-planting ceremonies. Last year, he
participated in a Japan-China youth exchange program. Kondo
is a co-representative of "Liberal-no-kai" (Association of
Liberals),which comprises seven DPJ Lower House members and
six DPJ Upper House members.
ZUMWALT