Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
09TOKYO419
2009-02-24 08:00:00
UNCLASSIFIED
Embassy Tokyo
Cable title:  

DAILY SUMMARY OF JAPANESE PRESS 02/24/09

Tags:  OIIP KMDR KPAO PGOV PINR ECON ELAB JA 
pdf how-to read a cable
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INFO RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC PRIORITY
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RUYNAAC/COMNAVFORJAPAN YOKOSUKA JA
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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 06 TOKYO 000419

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR E, P, EB, EAP/J, EAP/P, EAP/PD, PA;
WHITE HOUSE/NSC/NEC; JUSTICE FOR STU CHEMTOB IN ANTI-TRUST DIVISION;
TREASURY/OASIA/IMI/JAPAN; DEPT PASS USTR/PUBLIC AFFAIRS OFFICE;
SECDEF FOR JCS-J-5/JAPAN,
DASD/ISA/EAPR/JAPAN; DEPT PASS ELECTRONICALLY TO USDA
FAS/ITP FOR SCHROETER; PACOM HONOLULU FOR PUBLIC DIPLOMACY ADVISOR;
CINCPAC FLT/PA/ COMNAVFORJAPAN/PA.

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: OIIP KMDR KPAO PGOV PINR ECON ELAB JA

SUBJECT: DAILY SUMMARY OF JAPANESE PRESS 02/24/09

INDEX:

(1) Rumor going around in LDP that general election would occur in
May; Full-scale maneuvering over drive to remove Prime Minister Aso
from office; Financial summit as his swan song (Tokyo Shimbun)

(2) Political parties - part 1: Security issue could spark political
realignment (Yomiuri)

(3) Asahi attack: Man reported to have ordered the attack protests
Shukan Shincho (Mainichi)

(4) TOP HEADLINES

(5) EDITORIALS

(6) Prime Minister's schedule, February 23 (Nikkei)

ARTICLES:

(1) Rumor going around in LDP that general election would occur in
May; Full-scale maneuvering over drive to remove Prime Minister Aso
from office; Financial summit as his swan song

TOKYO SHIMBUN (Page 2) (Full)
February 24, 2009

While Prime Minister Taro Aso has found it increasingly difficult to
steer his administration, there is now a rumor in his Liberal
Democratic Party (LDP) that the prime minister would step down after
the G-20 financial summit slated for April 2 in London as his swan
song. The idea is that the House of Representatives would be
dissolved in April for a general election in May, after the LDP
elects its new president. Meanwhile, persons close to Aso are
seeking to constrain a drive to unseat him, hinting at the
possibility of the prime minister shuffling his cabinet after the
fiscal 2009 budget and related bills are enacted. The political
situation will likely become increasingly chaotic.

Regardless of Aso's intention, speculations have begun going around
in the LDP. One speculation is that Aso would resign as prime
minister after attending the financial summit.

Regarding the timing of Lower House dissolution, LDP members had

believed that there were only two options -- one being May and the
other being September when the terms of the Lower House members
expire. However, immediately after Shoichi Nakagawa resigned as
finance minister, the dominant view was that there was no other
choice but to wait until the term of the Lower House runs out.

However, with the Democratic Party of Japan's decision to approve
the passage of the fiscal 2009 budget and related bills in the Lower
House within February, it is now certain that the budget will be
enacted at the end of March and the related bulls by late April.

If the ruling coalition accomplishes its minimum job, which means
the passage of the budget and related bills; it will be able to
break the spell of supporting the Aso administration. According to
the political calendar, the April 2 financial summit has been set
for Aso to as his last job.

Appearing on a commercial television program on Feb. 21 in Fukuoka

TOKYO 00000419 002 OF 006


Prefecture, Taku Yamasaki, former LDP vice president, said: "I think
it is good that the Lower House will be dissolved in April and a
snap election will be called in May." A senior LDP member also said:
"The Lower House may be dissolved in April."

Amid the prevailing view in the party that the LDP won't be able to
fight the election under Aso's leadership, the May election means
that many LDP members are now envisaging Aso's early departure from
office.

An awareness of the situation that it is difficult to delay Lower
House dissolution until the summer is spreading in the LDP, with
Senior Deputy Secretary General Nobuteru Ishihara saying: "When the
situation becomes confused, we should ask for the people's vote of
confidence."

Referring in a speech to the timing of Lower House dissolution, LDP
Diet Affairs Committee Chairman Takamori Oshima said on Feb. 21: "I
want the prime minister to attend the financial summit, no matter
what happens. After that, it's up to the prime minister's decision."


In an attempt to contain calls for unseating him, Aso has launched
looking into compiling a supplementary budget for the fiscal 2009
budget, with the passage of the budget in mind. The extra budget
could be compiled by a person other than Aso.

(2) Political parties - part 1: Security issue could spark political
realignment

YOMIURI (Page 4) (Full)
February 24, 2009

Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) President Ichiro Ozawa during a
meeting with visiting U.S. Secretary of State Clinton at a Tokyo
hotel on the evening of Feb. 17 said, "It is important to deal with
individual problems concerning the issue of realigning U.S. forces
in Japan, after our two countries discussed their global strategy,
and reached an agreement." Ozawa was eloquent, though he was
reportedly reluctant to meet with Clinton.

According to a senior DPJ official, the meeting was held for about
30 minutes with an interpreter and Ozawa spent 70 PERCENT of the
meeting time. Secretary General Hatoyama at a meeting of the "Next
Cabinet," held the following day, reported, "President Ozawa
spearheaded the discussions for most of the time. Secretary Clinton
took the part of the listener."

Ozawa, however, did not touch on any specific issues, such as the
relocation of the U.S. Marine Corps Futenma Air Station to outside
Okinawa or abroad, which the DPJ is calling for. Some in the party
speculated, "He probably unilaterally spoke to avoid Secretary
Clinton from going deep into the matter."

Behind Ozawa steering clear of touching on the Futenma issue is the
fact that party members are not monolithic on security issues.

Deputy Chief of Mission Zumwalt of the U.S. Embassy in Japan gave a
speech at a meeting of the Hatoyama group. Concerning the accord on
the relocation of marines from Okinawa to Guam, which the Japanese
foreign minister and the U.S. secretary of state signed on the 17th,
Clinton made sure to warn: "Implementing the relocation steadily

TOKYO 00000419 003 OF 006


will be in the interests of both countries. It would take an awful
lot time, if the plan is to be reset."

This is because the DPJ is critical of the accord, with Policy
Council Chairman Naoshima noting, "The government has yet to fulfill
its accountability for the estimated relocation cost."

In response to strong concern expressed by the U.S., dissatisfaction
is mounting among conservative lawmakers that the U.S. military base
issue in Okinawa is supposed to come up first and foremost, if DPJ
administration comes into existence. And yet, specific discussions
have hardly been pursued." DPJ lawmakers have started conferring on
realistic options concerning the base issue with Lower House member
Mikio Shimoji, elected from Okinawa No.1 Constituency, on a
voluntary basis.

The Liberal Democratic Party's (LDP) security policy experts in the
Diet are paying close attention to the DPJ's move, with a person who
once served in a ministerial post saying: "Even if the DPJ takes the
reins of government, it would split over the security issue, which
could pave the way for the realignment of political circles,
involving some LDP members."

Another issue that will form the axis of the realignment of
political circles involving the LDP and the DPJ is the consumption
tax.

Kaoru Yosano is now serving as state minister for economic and
fiscal policy, minister of finance and state minister for financial
services in the Aso administration, increasing his presence.

Yosano, who is in favor of raising the consumption tax, champions
the pro-fiscal reconstruction force, which attaches importance to
fiscal disciplines. Senior Deputy Policy Research Council Chairman
Hiroyuki Sonoda, a former New Party Sakigake member, has a channel
with the DPJ. Some take the view that Sonoda will move for the
realignment of political circles along with Yosano after the Lower
House election."

In the meantime, mid-ranking and junior lawmakers, including Upper
House member Ichita Yamamoto, who are critical of a consumption tax
hike, have set up a study group this year. Yamamoto is close to
former State Minister for Administrative Reform Yoshimi Watanabe,
who has left the LDP. A point has been made that members of the
study group might aim at realigning political circles along with
advocates of economic growth, such as former Secretary General
Hidenao Nakagawa, who is attaching importance to economic growth and
spending cuts, instead of a tax hike.

DPJ members are also divided over the consumption tax issue. Katsuya
Okada and Seiji Maehara, when they were serving as president, both
referred to a hike in the consumption tax.

Maehara during an interview with the Yomiuri Shimbun said, "It is
unavoidable to implement drastic tax system reform, including a
review of the consumption tax, in the future. I do not think it is
possible to reconstruct the nation's finances and economy with the
reform of spending structure alone."

Ozawa has contained discussion of a consumption tax hike, noting
there are ample fiscal resources. He is thus giving consideration to
lawmakers who are cautious about raising the consumption tax.

TOKYO 00000419 004 OF 006



Amid a change of administration gaining a realistic prospect, a
certain senior DPJ member is beginning to take this view: "The weak
point of the DPJ is security and a consumption tax hike, which is
necessary for social security spending. If the party remains vague
about these issues, it might split. It may be better to sort out its
stance through the realignment of political circles."

(3) Asahi attack: Man reported to have ordered the attack protests
Shukan Shincho

MAINICHI ONLINE (Full)
11:46, February 24, 2009

The Asahi Shimbun reported in its Feb. 24 morning edition that a
former U.S. Embassy employee, 54, who had been described in the
weekly magazine Shukan Shincho's series of articles as the person
who ordered a 65-year-old man who claimed in the articles to have
attacked the Asahi Shimbun's Hanshin Bureau in 1987 protested
Shinchosha, the weekly magazine's publisher, saying: "The contents
of the articles conflict with facts."

According to the Asahi Shimbun, the former employee sent on Feb. 17
an e-mail to the company and after revealing his real name in an
interview, he explained: "In the Shukan Shincho articles, I was set
up as the person who had ordered the attack." Accompanied by an
Asahi reporter, he visited Shinchosha in Tokyo's Shinjuku Ward on
Feb. 23 and sought corrections and an apology, saying: "The notes
are totally false and the articles contradict facts." Carrying a
mosaic picture of the former Embassy employee, Shukan Shincho had
reported that the former employee asked the 65-year-old man to
attack (the Asahi Shimbun's Hanshin Bureau) by providing him with a
gun and money.

According to the U.S. Embassy in Japan, the former employee was with
the Embassy up until April 2008 and that he was working at the U.S.
Consulate in Fukuoka in 1986, the year he reportedly ordered the
attack.

(4) TOP HEADLINES

Asahi:
Welfare ministry predicts 20 PERCENT decrease in pension benefits
30 years from now

Mainichi:
Welfare ministry forecasts ratio of benefits to after-tax salary
payment to be kept over 50 PERCENT in fiscal 2038

Yomiuri & Tokyo Shimbun:
Two Japanese films, including "Okuribito (Departures)," win Oscars

Nikkei:
Auto, electronics firms to standardize car control software

Sankei:
Joint survey with FNN: Public support of Aso cabinet plunges to 11.4
PERCENT

Akahata:
JCP member Ishii urges government to save high school students who
cannot pay tuition fees

TOKYO 00000419 005 OF 006



(5) EDITORIALS

Asahi:
(1) Outlook for pension financial resources: Future benefit levels
concerned
(2) Afghan reconstruction: Japan should demonstrate skills in
civilian aid

Mainichi:
(1) Academy Awards: Two Japanese films able to convey Japanese
culture to world audience
(2) Let us use government funds to expand domestic demand

Yomiuri:
(1) ASEAN plus 3 urged to revitalize Asian economy
(2) Academy Awards: World recognizes Japanese moviemakers'
abilities

Nikkei:
(1) Too high yield rates presented in outlook for pension financing
(2) Oscars awarded to two Japanese films show moviemakers' power

Sankei:
(1) Japan-U.S. summit: Discuss issue of collective self-defense
(2) Thoroughly investigate Asahi bombing incident, keeping
possibility of terrorism in mind

Tokyo Shimbun:
(1) Make picking two Oscars a departure of Japanese movies
(2) New Japan-U.S. China era: Japan should go beyond just talking
about common values

Akahata:
(1) Irresponsible suggestion by business circles to raise
consumption tax to 17 PERCENT to impose heavier burden on people

(6) Prime Minister's schedule, February 23

NIKKEI (Page 2) (Full)
February 24, 2009

10:35
Met at the Kantei with those who attended the meeting of ambassadors
to European countries.

11:09
Met with Vice Foreign Minister Yabunaka, Deputy Foreign Minister
Sasae, Asian and Oceanian Affairs Bureau Director General Saiki, and
North American Affairs Bureau Director General Umemoto, in the
presence of Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary Matsumoto and Assistant
Chief Cabinet Secretary Hayashi.

11:21
Met with deputy foreign ministers Sasae and Otabe, Umemoto, METI
Trade Policy Bureau Director General Okada and others, in the
presence of Matsumoto.

14:10
Place a telephone call to ROK President Lee Myung Bak in the
presence of Chief Cabinet Secretary Kawamura and his deputy
Matsumoto. Kawamura stayed on. Afterward met with Japan-ROK joint

TOKYO 00000419 006 OF 006


research project Japan chair Masao Okonogi and his Korean
counterpart in the presence of Kawamura and others.

15:03
Met with LDP General Council Chairman Sasagawa, followed by advisor
Yamaguchi. Afterward met with Kawamura.

16:21
Met with Vietnamese Planning and Investment Minister Vo Hong Phuc.

17:02
Attended an LDP executive meeting. Senior Deputy Secretary General
Hayashi stayed on.

17:45
Met with LDP Election Strategy Council Deputy Chairman Suga,
followed by Chinese Communist Party's International Department head
Wang Jiarui in the presence of Chinese Ambassador to Japan Cui
Tiankai, LDP Policy Research Council Chairman Hori, International
Bureau chief Mihara and others.

18:38
Returned to the Kantei.

19:09
Returned to his official residence.

20:51
Departed from Haneda Airport for the United States on a government
special plane.

ZUMWALT