PUBLIC SUPPORT FOR ASO WEAKENS ON EVE OF U.S.

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TOKYO 000410

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/17/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL ECON JA
SUBJECT: PUBLIC SUPPORT FOR ASO WEAKENS ON EVE OF U.S.
SUMMIT, BUT LDP HAS FEW OTHER OPTIONS

REF: TOKYO 0347

Classified By: CDA James P. Zumwalt, reasons 1.4(b),(d).


1. (C) Summary: The latest polls from a broad range of media
outlets show more bad news for Prime Minister Taro Aso and
his ruling LDP on every front. Aso's support rate is now the
second or third lowest in memory, his non-support rate has
hit 80 percent in at least one survey, and he trails
opposition DPJ leader Ozawa in measures of personal
popularity by as many as 26 points. More ominous for the
ruling coalition are poll results indicating that as many as
70 percent of respondents want an election by April, and more
than 50 percent want the DPJ to lead the next government.
Forced by the February 17 resignation of Finance Minister
Nakagawa to delay his timetable for passage of the budget and
a key economic stimulus package, Aso faces difficult
legislative hurdles upon his return from Washington. While
pressure to call an election is likely to increase even
further, and Aso faces real divisions within his own party,
the LDP has few options for swapping out Aso for a party
leader who can reverse the party's downward slide. End
summary.

Aso Nears Bottom in Polls; Majority Now Support Opposition
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2. (C) Public support for Aso now ranges from 11 to 15
percent, according to media polls conducted after the
resignation of disgraced Finance Minister Shoichi Nakagawa,
down from the upper 40s and low 50s just six months ago. Aso
is now the second- or third-lowest ranked Prime Minister in
post-war history, depending on the poll. His non-support
rate in at least one major publication, the Nikkei, has now
broken 80 percent, with the others closing in fast. More
than 70 percent of respondents want Aso to dissolve the Lower
House and call an election by April. Unfortunately for Aso
and the ruling coalition, support for an opposition
Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ)-led government now exceeds 50
percent in nearly every survey, outpacing the LDP by more
than 20 points. Aso himself now trails DPJ leader Ichiro
Ozawa by as much as 26 points in several measures of personal
popularity, a near-complete reversal of the results from the
period leading up to his election as LDP President in summer

2008. A Nikkei poll ranking potential Prime Ministers showed
Ozawa in first place, with 17 percent of the votes, followed
by former Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi and three of Aso's
opponents in the 2008 LDP Presidential race. Aso came in
seventh, with just four percent of the vote.

LDP Increasingly Desperate, but Few Alternatives to Aso
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3. (C) Paradoxically, support for Aso among at least some of
the LDP faithful is growing stronger, at least in the
short-term, even as his situation becomes more untenable with
the public. Many LDP contacts indicated to the Embassy that
they would prefer to see a new leader emerge before the next
election. Most concede, however, that there are no real
prospects to replace him. A recent Asahi poll of the 47 LDP
prefectural chapters demonstrates the extent to which the LDP
is resigned to Aso for the time-being. Asked whether the LDP
should contest the next election under Aso or under a
different leader, 30 LDP chapters chose Aso. Their answers,
however, tell the real story. "It won't make any difference
who becomes Prime Minister" party officials in several
prefectures noted. "There's no appropriate person to
represent the party," was another common refrain. Many
within the LDP are concerned that the public will not
tolerate the selection of a fourth Prime Minister based
solely on the mandate of the 2005 snap election. LDP Lower
House member Akiko Yamanaka told the Embassy recently: "We
elected him so now we must support him until the end.
Otherwise, we will look foolish."


TOKYO 00000410 002 OF 002


Budget Bills First Challenge Awaiting Aso's Return
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4. (C) As a result of Nakagawa's resignation, Aso was forced
to give up his intention to pass the FY09 regular budget in
the Lower House prior to departing for Washington on February

23. The goal now is to pass the measure by February 27, but
no later than March 2, to ensure it can be enacted before the
new fiscal year begins on April 1. (Note: Budgets are
considered enacted 30 days after passage in the Lower House.
Implementing legislation can be held for up to 60 days in the
Upper House, and require a two-thirds majority re-vote in the
Lower House if it is rejected by the Upper House.) Aso will
also have to contend with legislation necessary to implement
his second supplementary FY08 budget, which contains a
controversial two trillion yen cash handout intended to help
stimulate the economy. The extra budget itself has already
passed the Diet, but the cash payments cannot be disbursed
without the separate budget-related measure, which has been
held by the Upper House since passing Lower House on January

13. The press. meanwhile, is having a field day highlighting
divisions within the LDP over the cash benefit plan, leading
with former Prime Minister Koizumi's statement that he will
abstain from a re-vote, and following up with the rivalry
between party heavyweights Hidenao Nakagawa, a Koizumi ally,
and Nobutaka Machimura over the direction of fiscal policy.


5. (C) The ruling coalition is taking a cautious approach,
according to press reports, knowing that acting too
aggressively could incite a strong response from the
opposition. Faced with continued opposition boycotts and
delays in the aftermath of the resignation of disgraced
Finance Minister Shoichi Nakagawa on February 17, LDP Diet
Affairs Chief Tadamori Oshima was forced to concede publicly
that "deliberations have been insufficient," and promise not
to force a vote on the regular FY09 budget before Aso's
return from the United States. His DPJ counterpart, Kenji
Yamaoka, pledged in return that his party would not
deliberately delay discussions. Embassy contacts confirm
reports that Aso will immediately seek to follow passage of
the regular FY09 budget with a supplementary budget for FY09,
hoping to fund additional stimulus measures.


6. (C) Passage of the regular budget, a possible
supplementary budget, and all of the related implementing
legislation could occupy the Diet well into April, after
which calls for an election are likely to increase, according
to Embassy contacts. If Aso fails to dissolve the Lower
House for a snap election in April or May, those contacts
say, he will probably try to stay in office until his term
expires in September. Many of his LDP colleagues, however,
have told the Embassy that they would still prefer to replace
him before an election, even if there is currently no clear
choice to reverse the party's downward slide.
ZUMWALT