DAILY SUMMARY OF JAPANESE PRESS 2 02/09/09

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 08 TOKYO 000302

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR E, P, EB, EAP/J, EAP/P, EAP/PD, PA;
WHITE HOUSE/NSC/NEC; JUSTICE FOR STU CHEMTOB IN ANTI-TRUST DIVISION;
TREASURY/OASIA/IMI/JAPAN; DEPT PASS USTR/PUBLIC AFFAIRS OFFICE;
SECDEF FOR JCS-J-5/JAPAN,
DASD/ISA/EAPR/JAPAN; DEPT PASS ELECTRONICALLY TO USDA
FAS/ITP FOR SCHROETER; PACOM HONOLULU FOR PUBLIC DIPLOMACY ADVISOR;
CINCPAC FLT/PA/ COMNAVFORJAPAN/PA.

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: OIIP KMDR KPAO PGOV PINR ECON ELAB JA

SUBJECT: DAILY SUMMARY OF JAPANESE PRESS 2 02/09/09

INDEX:

(9) High barriers to clear before dissolving Lower House after
passage of fiscal 2009 budget -- No happy idea for sluggish public
support ratings, economic recession: Prime minister wants to avoid
election after current term for Lower House members; Move to oust
Aso likely to occur, if Lower House dissolution is delayed (Nikkei)


(10) Blue-ribbon panel calls for using ODA for public-private
cooperation in investment (Nikkei)

(11) LDP considering non-interest-bearing government bond plan as
showcase for manifesto (Nikkei)

(12) Coordination underway to appoint Ambassador to France Iimura as
government delegate for Middle Eastern issues (Mainichi)

(13) Government's written reply to note: "Details have not been
grasped" about pirates off Somalia (Mainichi)

(14) Defense Minister Hamada confirms anti-piracy cooperation with
Britain (Nikkei)

(15) France, Czech cold-shoulders Japan (Yomiuri)

(16) PACOM commander: "More funds needed to transfer U.S. Marines in
Okinawa to Guam (Akahata)

(17) U.S. force realignment: Futenma relocation issue may rekindle
(Tokyo Shimbun)

(18) Noise at Kadena increased; Burden not decreased by training
relocation (Akahata)

ARTICLES:

(9) High barriers to clear before dissolving Lower House after
passage of fiscal 2009 budget -- No happy idea for sluggish public
support ratings, economic recession: Prime minister wants to avoid
election after current term for Lower House members; Move to oust
Aso likely to occur, if Lower House dissolution is delayed

NIKKEI (Page 2) (Abridged slightly)
February 8, 2009

With the start of full-fledged deliberations on the fiscal 2009
budget, moves to search for dissolution of the Lower House after its
passage have emerged in the government and the ruling camp. Prime
Minister Taro Aso and his aides are looking into compiling a package
of additional economic stimulus measures and making it a campaign
issue for the Lower House election. However, there is a slim chance
of such a package leading to a dramatic recovery of cabinet support
ratings. If the Diet dissolution is delayed, a move to oust Aso
could spread. The prime minister will likely be pressed to make a
decision under a difficult circumstance.

May 24 election rumored in ruling parties

The prime minister recently said to a ruling party executive, "I
would like to avoid an election following the end of the current
term for Lower House members as much as possible." This executive

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took it that Aso intends to dissolve the Lower House after passage
of the fiscal 2009 budget and related bills, if public support
ratings for the cabinet rise.

There is a rumor going around in the ruling parties that the
election will be set for May 24. Mikio Aoki, former head of the
Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) caucus in the Upper House, said,
"There is no guarantee that delaying Lower House dissolution will
work to the ruling parties' advantage." The ruling camp's plan is
that they will compile a large-scale package of additional stimulus
measures as soon as they manage to enact budget related bills before
the Golden Week holiday season in May and make it a campaign issue
for the upcoming Lower House election.

LDP Diet Affairs Policy Committee Chairman Tadamori Omori, the prime
minister's brain truster, has pushed for a scenario of dissolving
the Lower House in the spring. The New Komeito, which wants to leave
an interval between the next Lower election and the Tokyo
Metropolitan Assembly election, which is to take place on July 12,
sees that date as acceptable somehow. The party expects that if
flat-sum cash handouts start, public ratings for the government and
the ruing parties will rise.

DPJ deems dissolution likely on April 26

Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) President Ichiro Ozawa is trying to
encourage the prime minister to dissolve the Lower House in the
spring, implying dissolution through talks. Ozawa says that voting
on April 26 would be possible. In response, the Japanese Trade Union
Confederation (Rengo),which supports the DPJ, will ready itself for
the election.

However, the Aso cabinet's approval ratings are now below 20 PERCENT
. One aide to the prime minister says Aso needs at least 30 PERCENT
for his cabinet to dissolve the Lower House. The prime minister has
been making flip-flops as usual to narrow the range of options.

If it is difficult to dissolve the Lower House in the spring, the
prime minister will switch his policy stance to compiling a fiscal
2009 extra budget and chalking up a track record of summit diplomacy
at the G-8 Summit in early July. This is the scenario recommended by
LDP Election Committee Vice Chairman Yoshihide Suga and close aides
to him.

LDP presidential election likely to be frontloaded, if Lower House
is to be dissolved in fall

If the Lower House is dissolved right after the G-8 Summit, the
election will likely be set for Aug. 2. However, since the LDP's
power base is also visibly shaky in local elections, as can be seen
in the result of the Yamagata Prefecture gubernatorial election in
late January, there is a strong view that the Lower House election
would be called at a time close to the end of the term of the
current members in September.

The rumor also has it that if that is the case, the LDP presidential
election slated for September will be frontloaded and a new LDP
president, after elected prime minister in the Diet, would dissolve
the Lower House. Some think that replacing the prime minister so
often will not be able to obtain understanding. Chances are,
however, if Aso is found to be unable to serve as the key person of
the election, a move to replace him could gain ground in one sweep.

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(10) Blue-ribbon panel calls for using ODA for public-private
cooperation in investment

NIKKEI (Page 2) (Abridged slightly)
February 8, 2009

An advisory panel to Foreign Minister Hirofumi Nakasone has produced
a final report on the modality of effective international
cooperation through the nation's official development assistance
(ODA) program. To prevent a decline in private investments in
developing countries due to the global financial crisis, the report
calls for the promotion of investments in infrastructure in Asia and
other regions by actively utilizing what is called the
public-private partnership formula that combines private-sector
funds with the ODA.

The blue-ribbon panel on international cooperation, chaired by
Takushoku University President Toshio Watanabe, will make proposals
to the foreign minister after its meeting on Feb. 9.

The report specifies the need to earnestly promote cooperation
between the public and private sectors. As a specific step, the
report calls for the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA),
the ODA implementation body, to resume its overseas investment
projects, so that ODA projects would be able to facilitate private
investments in development countries. To strengthen the Foreign
Ministry's ODA planning functions, the report also proposes
expanding the unit formulating development projects for each
country. The panel also calls for active discussion by a
cabinet-level overseas economic council established in 2006.

Although the abolition of JICA's investment projects was decided in
2001, the Foreign Ministry and the Ministry of Economy, Trade and
Industry have positive views about resuming ODA projects,
maintaining that developing countries need assistance. The Finance
Ministry remains opposed to the resumption.

(11) LDP considering non-interest-bearing government bond plan as
showcase for manifesto

NIKKEI (Page 2) (Full)
February 7, 2009

Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) lawmakers are looking into the
feasibility of issuing non-interest-bearing government bonds to
lighten the inheritance tax. The idea is motivated by the desire to
create a showcase item for the party's manifesto for the next Lower
House election amid the Aso cabinet's suffering from sluggish public
support ratings. However, it would not be easy to materialize the
plan.

LDP Election Committee Vice Chairman Yoshihide Suga at a preparatory
meeting to establish a parliamentarian league to consider issuing
government notes and non-interest-bearing government notes
enthusiastically noted, "The greatest measure of the century is
needed for the greatest global recession of the century." The
envisaged parliamentarian league will boil down merits of and
problems about issuing such a bond and recommend the plan to Prime
Minister Taro Aso.

The mechanism of non-interest-bearing government bonds is to remove

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the face value of such bonds from the inheritance tax in return for
paying no interest. Suga's argument is that issuing such a bond will
help the effective use of individual financial assets kept at
households for economic stimulus measures.

Former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has initiated the plan. Abe and
Suga, who have an understanding with Aso, are positive about the
idea, indicating their desire to contain a possible move to oust
Aso, expected to emerge after passage of the fiscal 2009 budget, by
putting up a new economic stimulus package. Abe and Suga have
already proposed the plan to the prime minister. The prime minister
appears to have shown interest in the idea.

Some government sources have also shown understanding. State
Minister for Economic and Fiscal Policy Kaoru Yosano at a Budget
Committee meeting on the 6th said there is a view that
non-interest-bearing government bonds will lead to the creation of
effective demand, as dormant financial assets will be used.

However, there are many barriers. One is tax impartiality. Only 4.2
PERCENT of all deceased persons were subject to the inheritance tax
in fiscal 2006. Only a handful of wealthy people will thus benefit
from such a bond. Some said that if funds procured through the sale
of such a bond are used for measures for the elderly or the socially
weak, criticism that the government is giving preferential treatment
to wealthy people can be avoided, as LDP Upper House member Kotaro
Tamura said. However, whether the plan can obtain understanding from
people is unclear.

The idea of issuing non-interest-bearing government bonds has
repeatedly surfaced in the ruling camp since the late 1990s as a
measure to dispose of long-term debts held by the former Japan
National Railways and to shore up the economy after the bursting of
the asset-inflated bubble economy. However, it has never realized
due to opposition from the former finance ministry, which was
concerned about an ensuing drop in tax revenues. One senior official
of the New Komeito said, "The idea has just been suggested. This has
yet to be fully discussed."

(12) Coordination underway to appoint Ambassador to France Iimura as
government delegate for Middle Eastern issues

MAINICHI (Page 5) (Full)
February 7, 2009

The Foreign Ministry has started coordination on a plan to appoint
Ambassador to France Yutaka Iimura to be the government's delegate
in charge of issues with the Middle East. Besides former
Administrative Vice Foreign Minister Shotaro Yachi, who now serves
as the government's delegate for key diplomatic issues in response
to Prime Minister Taro Aso's intention, there are four government
delegates respectively in charge of normalization of diplomatic ties
between Japan and North Korea, U.S. forces in Okinawa, and other
issues. But the post dealing with issues with the Middle East has
been vacant.

In 2001, when Iimura was chief of the foreign minister's
secretariat, he was dismissed in conflict with then Foreign Minister
Makiko Tanaka. He became ambassador to Indonesia in 2002 and has
been in his current post since 2006. Given that Ambassador to Russia
Yasuo Saito has been informally appointed to become ambassador to
France by the end of this month, attention was being focused on how

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Iimura would be treated.

Government delegates are special officeholders authorized to hold
negotiations with other countries on behalf of the government.

(13) Government's written reply to note: "Details have not been
grasped" about pirates off Somalia

MAINICHI (Page 5) (Full)
February 7, 2009

The government decided in a cabinet meeting yesterday to note in its
written reply that the government has not grasped details about
pirates off Somalia, Africa. In it, the government takes the
position that it has learned through reports that pirates are armed
with automatic rifles and rocket launchers. It also notes that the
government has not been informed of the details of how they attack.
House of Representatives member Hideo Hiraoka of the Democratic
Party of Japan, who asked questions in writing to the government,
commented: "The government is set to dispatch Maritime Self-Defense
Force destroyers to Somalia though it knows nothing about pirates. I
wonder how the government will handle this matter."

(14) Defense Minister Hamada confirms anti-piracy cooperation with
Britain

NIKKEI (Page 2) (Full)
February 8, 2009

Shigehisa Furuya, Munich

Defense Minister Yasukazu Hamada held separate talks with his
Singaporean counterpart Teo Chee Hean and British counterpart John
Hutton on Feb. 7 on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference.
As a result, they confirmed a policy course to cooperate in the
fight against piracy in waters off Somalia, Africa. Hamada also
discussed reconstruction assistance to Afghanistan with Defense
Minister Hutton.

Meanwhile, Defense Minister Teo indicated that he would welcome the
dispatch of destroyers by Japan for an anti-piracy mission. He also
said: "Singapore is also considering a dispatch to waters off
Somalia. An opportunity would arise to exchange information."
Reportedly, there is a possibility that (Japanese) destroyers will
call at a port in Singapore for replenishment. Hamada is also
scheduled to have a meeting with Defense Minister Franz Jung of
Germany.

Hamada was also scheduled to meet with Defense Minister Herve Morin
of France and defense chief Vlasta Parkanova of the Czech Republic,
the chair of the European Union, but they were called off at the
eleventh hour due to the two countries' circumstances.

(15) France, Czech cold-shoulders Japan

YOMIURI (Page 2) (Full)
February 8, 2009

Shozo Nakayama, Munich

Defense Minister Yasukazu Hamada planned to meet on Feb. 7 at a
Munich hotel with Czech Defense Minister Vlasta Parkanova and French

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Defense Minister Herve Morin. However, the planned meetings were
cancelled at the last minute due to their circumstances. The Czech
Republic currently takes over the European Union presidency.

According to the Defense Ministry, the Czech side proposed
postponing the meeting planned for the morning to the afternoon, but
the meeting was eventually cancelled. Reportedly, the reason for the
cancellation of the Hamada-Morin meeting, which had been planned for
noon, was because President Nicolas Sarkozy's speech at the Munich
Security Conference, which Morin attended, was delayed. A senior
Defense Ministry official said, "The sudden cancellation of a
meeting on the sidelines of a multinational conference is not
unusual." However, some might say that Japan's presence still
remains small in the security world.

(16) PACOM commander: "More funds needed to transfer U.S. Marines in
Okinawa to Guam

AKAHATA (Page 2) (Full)
February 7, 2009

Adm. Timothy Keating, commander of the Pacific Command, indicated in
an interview with Reuters on Feb. 5 that the transfer of U.S.
Marines in Okinawa to Guam, initially planned to be completed by
2014, will likely fall behind schedule and that more funds would be
needed for the plan.

Keating said: "The schedule for attaining the goal of transferring
8,000 (U.S. Marines) to Guam has fallen behind schedule. In
addition, there are not enough funds to immediately carry it out."
He repeatedly said: "The relocation plan will not be carried out as
planned, and it will also cost more."

Keating emphasized that there has not been any change so far to the
relocation plan under the Obama administration. He stated: "I think
that handling this plan in a more cautious manner over the long run
will be more beneficial. ... We will neither abandon Japan nor make
a quick decision to do so. We guarantee this to our friends and
allies in the region."

Keating did not disclose which side, Japan or the U.S., will
shoulder this increased cost.

In November 2008, Keating said that the Guam transfer process would
not be completed in 2014. Later, though, the Department of Defense,
denying this prediction by Keating emphasized that the process will
finish by that year.

(17) U.S. force realignment: Futenma relocation issue may rekindle

TOKYO SHIMBUN (Page 2) (Abridged)
February 8, 2009

Takuji Soka

There are some signs that the planned relocation of the U.S. Marine
Corps' Futenma Air Station in Ginowan, Okinawa Prefecture, to the
coastal area of Camp Schwab in Nago will rekindle as a political
issue. The government plans to conclude a new agreement with the
United States to promote the relocation plan and will ask the Diet
for its consent during the current session. But Diet deliberations
may stall due to objections from opposition parties.

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Foreign Minister Hirofumi Nakasone visited Okinawa earlier this
month to hold talks with Governor Hirokazu Nakaima. In the meeting,
Nakasone sought Nakaima's understanding by telling him Tokyo's plan
to conclude a new agreement with Washington that will prohibit the
United States from using some 6 billion dollars of Japan's
contribution to the relocation of U.S. Marines to Guam for other
purposes.

In order to complete the relocation by 2014, as was agreed upon with
the United States, the government needs to obtain by this fall the
governor's authorization to use the surface of public waters. But
Nakaima has insisted the relocation site be moved further offshore
than was agreed upon between the two countries. The fissure between
the central government and Okinawa has yet to be bridged.

The envisaged agreement is also likely to stir up controversy at the
Diet. The major opposition Democratic Party of Japan supports the
Guam relocation plan, but it has raised a question about Japan's
massive contribution, with Secretary General Yukio Hatoyama saying,
"Japan's contribution seems too luxurious."

A constitutional provision stipulates the precedence of a decision
on an international treaty by the House of Representatives in which
the ruling coalition has a majority. Still, a rejection by the House
of Councillors would leave damage.

Meanwhile, the U.S. Obama administration intends to realign U.S.
forces in Japan as planned.

In their telephone discussion earlier this year, Foreign Minister
Nakasone and U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton agreed to
steadily implement the realignment of U.S. forces. During her Japan
visit starting on Feb. 16, Clinton is expected to ask Nakasone again
to implement the plan as scheduled.

The Aso administration is aiming to build relations with the Obama
administration. Nevertheless, sandwiched between the United States
and Okinawa, the Aso administration finds itself in a tight spot.
Some fear angering the United States, with a senior Defense Ministry
official saying, "U.S. force realignment has constantly been rocked
by Japan's political circumstances."

Tokyo, Washington agree to specify observance of roadmap in
agreement

The governments of Japan and the United States have decided to
specify their observance of the U.S. force realignment roadmap that
was agreed in 2006 in a new agreement to be concluded on the
relocation of U.S. Marines from Okinawa to Guam, several government
sources revealed on Feb. 7.

The agreement will be inked by Secretary of State Hillary Clinton,
who is to visit Japan starting on Feb. 16, and Foreign Minister
Nakasone. The government also plans to accelerate work to relocate
Futenma Air Station to the coastal area of Camp Schwab.

(18) Noise at Kadena increased; Burden not decreased by training
relocation

AKAHATA (Top play) (Abridged slightly)
February 7, 2009

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The government has implemented a program to relocate F-15 fighters'
training from the U.S. Kadena Air Base, located in Kadena Town, to
elsewhere as a means to reduce the burden on Okinawa. Despite that,
noise at the base has increased, Japanese Communist Party lawmaker
Seiken Akamine revealed in a House of Representatives Budget
Committee session on Feb. 6.

U.S. fighter training has been moved from Okinawa to six
Self-Defense Force bases starting in March 2007.

According to data formulated by the Kadena Town base affairs
department and presented by Akamine at the committee meeting, the
frequencies of noise caused by U.S. military aircraft during the
periods of F-15 training conducted outside Kadena in fiscal 2008 all
exceeded the average of fiscal 2006, the year before the program was
implemented.

Increases in noise are ascribable to the arrival and training of
many aircrafts from outside Kadena, such as the deployment of
state-of-the-art F-22 stealth fighters and F-18 attack planes from
Iwakuni Air Station in Yamaguchi Prefecture.

Akamine also pointed out the planned joint use of Kadena Air Base
with the Air Self-Defense Force (ASDF),the deployment starting this
year of F-15 fighters at the SDF's Naha base in Naha City, the
Ground Self-Defense Force's ongoing training at Camp Hansen in Kin
Town, and a plan to turn the GSDF First Combined Regiment into a
brigade. Akamine said: "In reality, the burden has increased rather
than decreased. The government is strengthening the bases in Okinawa
and in other prefectures by taking advantage of the people of
mainland Japan who want to see the burden on Okinawa reduced."

Defense Minister Yasukazu Hamada replied: "I take the local
indication seriously that the burden has not been lessened." Foreign
Minister Hirofumi Nakasone, too, replied: "I would like to convey
the actuation situation about alleviating the burden on Okinawa (to
U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton who is scheduled to visit
Japan starting on Feb. 16)."

ZUMWALT