Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
09TOKYO1929
2009-08-20 22:34:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Tokyo
Cable title:  

JAPAN AF-PAK ASSISTANCE AND THE ELECTION(S)

Tags:  ECON AID JA PGOV PREL PK 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXRO7679
PP RUEHDBU RUEHPW RUEHSL
DE RUEHKO #1929/01 2322234
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 202234Z AUG 09
FM AMEMBASSY TOKYO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 5605
INFO RUCNAFG/AFGHANISTAN COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEHIL/AMEMBASSY ISLAMABAD PRIORITY 2169
RUEHBUL/AMEMBASSY KABUL PRIORITY 0684
RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 5606
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TOKYO 001929 

SIPDIS

STATE FOR SRAP, SCA, EAP/FO, USAID FOR ASIA/DAA JBEVER,
CNORTH AND ODP KTURNER, NNICHOLSON;

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/20/2029
TAGS: ECON AID ECON JA PGOV PREL PK
SUBJECT: JAPAN AF-PAK ASSISTANCE AND THE ELECTION(S)

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TOKYO 001929

SIPDIS

STATE FOR SRAP, SCA, EAP/FO, USAID FOR ASIA/DAA JBEVER,
CNORTH AND ODP KTURNER, NNICHOLSON;

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/20/2029
TAGS: ECON AID ECON JA PGOV PREL PK
SUBJECT: JAPAN AF-PAK ASSISTANCE AND THE ELECTION(S)


1. Summary: (C) On the eve of Afghanistan elections,
Government of Japan (GOJ) Special Representative for
Afghanistan-Pakistan Motohide Yoshikawa re-iterated to AID
Counselor the country's highest priority commitment to the
region, echoing verbatim the USG's interests in a "secure,
credible, and inclusive," process. Ambassador Yoshikawa will
be following closely obviously the next several days and is
looking forward to receiving U.S. Special Representative
Holbrooke's on-the-ground assessment on 8/21. Amb.Yoshikawa
also shared his view that the GOJ's commitment to Afghanistan
development will remain strong regardless of which party wins
the upcoming Japan elections. Yoshikawa expressed concerns
about Pakistan progress and the languid rate of aid
disbursement there, citing a dearth of concrete project
proposals coming from the Government of Pakistan (GOP) since
substantial pledges were made at the Tokyo donors conference
in April. While Japan's assistance priorities of
security/police sector, infrastructure, and agriculture for
Afghanistan are mature, well-formed, and less likely to shift
direction, Tokyo assistance to Pakistan is still nascent, the
content of which may depend heavily on results of Japan's
8/30 elections. End summary


2. (C) Election Eve and DPJ view toward Afghanistan: In a
8/19 meeting with AID Counselor, Ambassador Yoshikawa
re-iterated Japan's strong commitment to Afghanistan
development, and ticked off his favorable impressions from a
July visit to Kabul of a "booming," prospering country and
good GOJ relationships with capable, committed Afghan
government (GOA) officials, but also expressed concerns about
what could lie ahead in the post-election period. Indicating
that Japan aid in Afghanistan has tried to "follow the
leaders," in directing assistance to sectors overseen by the
GOA's most capable cabinet members, citing the ministers of
education and agriculture as examples, Yoshikawa sees the

government capacity issues as the number one challenge moving
forward. In this context, Yoshikawa referenced concerns
about individuals rumored to fill key posts in a would-be
Karzai cabinet.


3. (C) Yoshikawa believes that Japan's strong commitment to
Afghanistan is unlikely to sag, even if the opposition
Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) takes power following Japan's
August 30 elections. He cited briefings he has been
providing DPJ officials on policy and programs in region and
a Kabul trip a couple years ago that he personally arranged
for DPJ President Yukio Hatoyama, in which the now leading
candidate to be Japan's next prime minister apparently came
away impressed with Afghanistan efforts. Yoshikawa also
pointed out for the DPJ the "big disconnect" between the
party's pronouncements related to ending Japan's marine
refueling efforts in favor of increased Afghanistan
development, given that 90 percent plus of GOJ's current
refueling operations is for Pakistan.


4. (C) Need More Pakistan Projects: Turning to the Pakistan
picture, Yoshikawa sees different, if not greater obstacles
to progress and success there on Japan development efforts.
Amb. Yoshikawa, like MOFA Director General for International
Cooperation Masato Kitera, is openly concerned about
attaining results in Pakistan, where aid disbursement for
them has been admittedly very slow. Both Yoshikawa and
MOFA's new division director for Af-Pak assistance in a
subsequent meeting confided that it has been difficult to
identify strong host country leadership and to get "concrete
proposals and projects" from the GOP. Clearly keenly
interested in living up to its substantial Pakistan aid
commitments, the GOP is frustrated with a dearth of impetus
and direction from the GOP. Amb. Yoshikawa is optimistic,
however, about possibilities for building on a recent
collaborative GOP and multi-donor effort used to put together
a regional development strategy for Malakand. Japan experts,
along with U.S., United Kingdom, UN, colleagues contributed
to this pilot strategy which will be presented by the GOP at
the August 24-25 Friends of Pakistan ministerial meeting in
Istanbul. Special Representative Yoshikawa will lead the GOJ
delegation there and indicated that he will also participate
in the Friends of Pakistan meeting scheduled on fringe of
September 24 UN General Assembly.


5. (C) Following the visit with Ambassador Yoshikawa, AID
Counselor also met new MOFA director for Af-Pak assistance
Hikariko Ono, who moved from most recent stint as the foreign
policy speech writer for Prime Minister Aso to now manage new
upgraded division in the Ministry's International Cooperation
Bureau. Ono focused on increased attention to Pakistan,
quicker disbursing assistance and ensuring that Japan lives

TOKYO 00001929 002 OF 002


up to its huge Pakistan aid pledge. She also revealed that
the Foreign Ministry has several scenarios prepared in its
Pakistan aid planning, with MOFA is holding major programming
decisions pending the results of Japan's elections. MOFA is
gaming that the DPJ will favor projects there and elsewhere
with more of a "human focus" such as greater investment in
basic education, health, and small farmer agriculture, vice
the LDP's generalized top interests of infrastructure and
promotion of economic growth. Thus, while the DPJ's thin
foreign policy manifesto lists roughly similar development
aid goals as those of the LDP, ultimate decisions on the
focus of its Pakistan aid package could also portend broader
shifts in Japan's global aid priorities under a DPJ-led
government.
ROOS