Japan Announces Midterm Greenhouse Gas Target

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SUBJECT: Japan Announces Midterm Greenhouse Gas Target

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1. (SBU) Summary: Following months of internal GOJ discussion and
input from various study groups, Prime Minister Aso announced June
10 that Japan will aim to cut its greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions 15
percent from 2005 levels by 2020. Looked at from a 1990 base year,
the figures would equal an eight percent cut. Senior Japanese
officials note the PM's announced target, unlike those of EU member
countries, for example, does not include potential CO2 reduction
through carbon sinks nor offsets through the purchase of carbon
credits from other countries. Briefing Major Economies Forum (MEF)
country ambassadors/senior embassy officials June 11, MOFA DG for
Global Issues Shinsuke Sugiyama stressed that Japan hopes the PM's
announcement will help spur progress at the upcoming G8 and MEF
meetings as well as at the December UNFCCC COP 15. Japanese press
has generally criticized the figure as too low, but business leaders
have been more positive, even if some call it a "tough target" to
reach. While the PM noted all sectors of Japanese society will need
to contribute if the country is to realize this goal, he stated that
the annual costs of meeting the 15 percent cut would be JPY 70,000
(about USD 700) per Japanese household. End Summary.

Target of 15 Percent Cut in Domestic Emmisions by 2020
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2. (SBU) Prime Minister Aso made his long-anticipated announcement
of Japan's midterm GHG reduction targets June 10. His goal of a 15
percent cut from 2005 levels by 2020 is equivalent to an eight
percent reduction from 1990 levels. However, the Japanese target
counts only direct domestic emissions cuts (what the GOJ refers to
as "clear water") and leaves out reductions from carbon sinks, e.g.,
through forestation and other land-use policies, or from carbon
credits purchased from other countries through UNFCCC programs like
the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM). If these reductions are
factored in, the PM asserted Japan's actual GHG reduction would be
considerably larger and would exceed those of the U.S. or EU. To
illustrate, the PM said Japan had pledged 5.4 percent reductions
through reforestation and purchases of carbon credits as part of its
Kyoto Protocol obligations. Ambassador Sugiyama made clear at a
June 11 briefing to MEF country ambassadors/senior embassy officials
that this 5.4 percent figure was meant to be representative only and
the final contribution of land use and carbon credits to Japan's
reductions would be negotiated in the UNFCCC in the coming months.
Another related point Sugiyama and other senior MOFA officials
stress is that developing, as well as developed countries, will need
to agree to binding GHG reduction targets in the new post 2012
climate change agreement.


3. (U) The midterm target falls in the middle of the six options
proposed by the PM's Council on Global Warming, an expert group made
up of representatives from industry, academia, and local government
(ref B). The GOJ's scenario for achieving a 15 percent reduction
assumes the introduction of advanced energy-saving technology, but
only in terms of buying/installing new equipment or to replace old
stock (ref A).


4. (SBU) The specific policy measures cited for reaching this
target include a 20-fold increase from 2005 levels in solar energy
generation, tax breaks for alternative energy and efficient
vehicles, a subsidy system for replacing existing equipment with
more energy efficient models, and existing energy-saving initiatives
such as "Cool Biz" -- a national program to save on cooling costs by
eschewing jackets and ties in offices during the summer. At his
June 11 briefing, Ambassador Sugiyama responded to a diplomat's
question of whether the Diet plans a bill to make achieving the
target obligatory, by saying it is a matter for parliamentarians to
decide, but that members of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party are
considering possible legislation.

Annual Cost Estimated at $700 per Household
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5. (U) The Prime Minister noted all aspects of Japanese society --
including both businesses and consumers -- will have to change their
behavior and make some sacrifices to realize the target. The GOJ
estimates programs to meet its midterm goals will cost 70,000 yen

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(USD 700) per household annually. Most of this cost would be in the
form of higher energy prices and purchases of more energy efficient
appliances. According to an opinion poll by the Cabinet Secretariat
(ref A),however, only 2.2 percent of the public would accept an
annual burden of 60,000 yen (USD 600) or more per household for
measures against climate change.

Reactions: Environment Ministry
--------------


6. (SBU) An Environment Ministry working-level official told emboff
that even a 15 percent reduction from 2005 levels would be
challenging, given Japan's difficulties in meeting its Kyoto target.
METI Minister Toshihiro Nikai did not issue an official statement
after the PM announcement and a METI contact declined to comment to
Post. METI had been quoted previously in the Japanese press
supporting an 11 percent cut.

Reactions: Industry
--------------


7. (SBU) Nippon Keidanren Chairman Fujio Mitarai, whose
organization had urged the least stringent emissions reduction
target and had been on record seeking a four percent rise in
Japanese emissions over 1990 levels, told the press it is a "tough
target." Keizai Doyukai (Japan Association of Corporate Executives)
Vice Chair of the Global Environmental Issues Committee Yukio
Yoshimura told emboff his organization supports the 15 percent
reduction target. (Note: Unlike Keidanren, Doyukai executives
predominantly represent the financial industry and other non-heavy
industry sectors. End note.) Yoshimura said the 15 percent target
was a compromise between heavy industry and those who feel that such
cuts are not enough.

Reactions: Press
--------------


8. (U) Almost all Japanese newspapers criticized the midterm
target. The June 11 Nikkei ran an editorial entitled "Is this a
midterm target that can lead international negotiations?" The
editorial argues the PM tried to make the figure look higher simply
by changing the base year from 1990 to 2005. The Asahi also ran an
editorial the same day pointing out that the PM's figure was less
than the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)'s
recommendations. The Tokyo Shimbun and the Chunichi Shimbun asked
if the figure would be "ambitious" enough. Meanwhile, the
conservative Yomiuri suggested the 15 percent target would be
challenging for a country like Japan that has already taken strong
steps to boost energy efficiency.

Reactions: NGO's
--------------


9. (SBU) A coalition of eight Japanese environmental NGO's
published statements opposing the PM's target. According to World
Wildlife Federation (WWF) Japan member Naoyuki Yamagishi, the NGO
was disappointed by the PM's announcement. He argued the figure was
too small to convince developing countries to take action in the
post 2012 framework.

ZUMWALT