DAILY SUMMARY OF JAPANESE PRESS 01//09

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SUBJECT: DAILY SUMMARY OF JAPANESE PRESS 01//09

INDEX:

(1) When will Lower House be dissolved? In April, July, September?
Psychological war going on with eye on political realignment
(Sankei)

(2) Watanabe's possible leaving the party have a minor impact: LDP
(Nikkei)

(3) Visit to Hiroshima by President Bush considered in 60th postwar
year (Mainichi)

(4) Japan still locked in Cold War mentality (Mainichi)

(5) Finance Ministry to set up intellectual property protection fund
for developing countries in cooperation with WCO (Nikkei)

(6) Japan, South Korea joint poll: 51 PERCENT of Japanese
respondents feel friendship toward South Korea, compared to 37
PERCENT of South Koreans (Mainichi)

(7) TOP HEADLINES

(8) EDITORIALS

(9) Prime Minister's schedule, January 3 (Nikkei)

ARTICLES:

(1) When will Lower House be dissolved? In April, July, September?
Psychological war going on with eye on political realignment

SANKEI (Page 1) (Full)
January 4, 2009

In the 171st ordinary session of the Diet to be convened on Jan. 5,
deliberations will focus on the second supplementary budget for
fiscal 2008 and the fiscal 2009 budget. Prime Minister Aso Taro has
pledged to make Japan the world's first country to emerge from the
global recession by implementing after the budgets clear the Diet
government-drafted fiscal and financial measures totaling 75
trillion yen in projects. However, Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ)
President Ichiro Ozawa intends to force an early dissolution of the
House of Representatives, saying: "The public will not be troubled
if the general election is held in January." As such, the ordinary
Diet session will be turbulent from the beginning. With an eye on
Sept. 10, when the terms of the Lower House members expire, the
question is when Aso will make the decision to dissolve the lower
chamber for a snap election.

Visiting at Aso's private residence in Kamiyama-cho, Shibuya Ward,
the LDP's Election Strategy Council Deputy Chairman Yoshihide Suga
said on the afternoon of Jan. 3:

"In any case, since the Lower House must be dissolved by the end of
September, let's lock horns with the opposition camp from the
beginning (of the ordinary session). You must not make any
concessions."

Aso then nodded his head. Aso relaxed at home during his winter
vacation. He was quoted as showing strong confidence the budgets
would pass.

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The government and ruling parties intend to get the second
supplementary budget through the Lower House in mid-January. Set off
by this, chances are strong that maneuvering will intensify between
the ruling and opposition camps. The reason is because there is a
possibility that the opposition will drag out deliberations on the
supplementary budget in the House of Councillors in order to prevent
the prime minister and ministers from attending deliberations on the
fiscal 2009 budget, which will start in the Lower House.

There is more time left in terms of the Diet schedule, since the
budgets are naturally enacted 30 days after they are passed by the
Lower House. In order to enact the bills related to the budgets
before the end of the current fiscal year, however, it is necessary
to get the budget-related bills pass through the Lower House by the
end of January with an eye on Article 59 of the Constitution, which
allows for a bill to be sent back to the Lower House if rejected by
the Upper House or if the bill has not been voted on within 60 days
after being presented to the upper chamber. In addition, in a bid to
pass the fiscal 2009 budget before the end of fiscal 2008, the Lower
House must pass the fiscal 2009 budget within February. If the Upper
House continues deliberations during the daytime, there will be no
choice for the Lower House but to hold deliberations from the
evening through midnight.

If the flat-sum cash-payout plan is not implemented, the Aso cabinet
will suffer a serious blow. If the ruling coalition fails to manage
the Diet schedule until February as planned, the possibility of the
Lower House being dissolved in April through talks with the
opposition may move closer to reality. Under this scenario, Aso
would promise to dissolve the Lower House in return for quick
passage of the budget bills by the Upper House. It is questionable
whether Aso would accept this scenario, since there is a possibility
that Aso's resignation would become a condition. A strategy of
holding the budget bills hostage will bring a huge risk to the
opposition camp, as well. As a result, a war of nerves will continue
between the ruling and opposition camps.

(2) Watanabe's possible leaving the party have a minor impact: LDP

NIKKEI (Page 2) (Full)
January 5, 2009

Yoshimi Watanabe, former state minister in charge of administrative
reform, has decided to leave the ruling Liberal Democratic Party
(LDP) if his call for scrapping the flat-sum cash-payout plan is not
accepted. Watanabe's decision underscores the extent of the decline
in Prime Minister Taro Aso's hold over the LDP. Senior LDP members
predict that Watanabe's leaving would only have a minor impact on
the party. However, because the ordinary Diet session is about to
convene, Watanabe's possible resignation from the LDP will likely
create waves in both the ruling and opposition camps.

Having in mind the possible formation of a new party before the next
House of Representatives election, Watanabe appears to be intending
to gather together supporters from both the ruling and opposition
parties. LDP Secretary General Hiroyuki Hosoda said in a meeting
last night of senior ruling coalition members: "Watanabe will be the
only LDP member leaving." Asked by reporters about his view on
Watanabe's call for scrapping the flat-sum cash-payment plan, New
Komeito leader Akihiro Ota said: "It is only natural to implement
what we have decided. I want him to handle that responsibly."

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At his first press conference of the year, Democratic Party of Japan
(DPJ) President Ichiro Ozawa refrained from commentating on
Watanabe's move in detail by saying: "I haven't talked with him
directly. He is still an LDP lawmaker. I'm not in a position to make
a comment."

On Dec. 24 last year, Watanabe defiantly voted for a DPJ-backed
resolution calling for an immediate dissolution of the Lower House.
Even after he was punished by the LDP, receiving a warning, he has
continued criticizing the Aso administration. Citing the flat-sum
benefit plan, totaling 2 trillion yen, which he says has a bad
reputation among the public, he has indicated that unless revisions
are made to the government-drafted fiscal 2008 second supplementary
budget and related bills, he will again defy the Aso government.

(3) Visit to Hiroshima by President Bush considered in 60th postwar
year

MAINICHI (Page 1) (Almost full)
January 3, 2009

Takahiro Takino

The U.S. Embassy in Tokyo studied in 2005, the 60th year after the
end of the war, the possibility of a visit to Hiroshima by President
George W. Bush, an embassy source revealed.

A U.S. President has never set foot in any atomic-bombed city. There
has never been any sign of Japan strongly seeking such a visit,
either. If accomplished, it would have played up the maturity of
Japan-U.S. relations 60 years after the war and been seen as an
attempt to overcome an unmentionable taboo.

The intention of having President Bush stop over in Hiroshima before
or after the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum
scheduled for November 2005 in South Korea's Busan was also to send
a message to North Korea about its nuclear ambitions. Japan's
relations with China and South Korea were chilly due to then Prime
Minister Junichiro Koizumi's visits to Yasukuni Shrine. Given the
situation, the United States forwent the Hiroshima plan to avoid the
misunderstanding that it had sided with Japan.

According to an U.S. Embassy source, the United States studied a
similar plan in 1995, the 50th anniversary of the end of the war.
The plan did not materialize because a schoolgirl in Okinawa was
raped by three U.S. Marines in September that year. The
Smithsonian's National Air and Space Museum planned that year to
exhibit A bomb-related materials, but that, too, was cancelled due
to fierce objections from U.S. veterans and Congress. The source
said: "The problem was that the organizer's approach had been poor.
There was plenty of possibility for the event to have taken place."


Momentum continued even after the milestone years. Lower House
Speaker Yohei Kono visited the USS Arizona National Memorial in
Pearl Harbor in late December 2008. U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi
(of the Democratic Party),the third in line for the Presidency
after the Vice President, also visited the Peace Memorial Park in
Hiroshima in September.

Further, in response to a question by a Japanese reporter

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immediately before the Lake Toya Summit last July about the
possibility of his visiting Hiroshima, President Bush said:
"Although I have never heard of such, it's an interesting idea." The
envisaged visit was defined as an opportunity to pay tribute to the
victims of the atomic bombing rather than to offer an apology for
the dropping of the atomic bomb.

Momentum to scrap nuclear weapons built in the United States last
year. The Democratic Party at its national convention in August
adopted a platform specifying a plan to pursue the ultimate
abolition of nuclear weapons. President-elect Barack Obama has
announced that he would appoint Harvard University Prof. John
Holdren to serve as Assistant to the President for Science and
Technology, the post that has been vacant over the last eight years.
He is the person who gave the acceptance speech for the Nobel Peace
Prize in 1995 on behalf of the Pugwash Conference on Science and
World Affairs.

On the night of December 18, 2008, at the Imperial Hotel in Tokyo,
Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) President John
Hamre, a candidate for defense secretary, made this request to
Japanese ruling and opposition party leaders, including former Prime
Minister Shinzo Abe and former Defense Minister Yuriko Koike of the
Liberal Democratic Party and former President Seiji Maehara of the
Democratic Party of Japan: "The first Strategic Arms Reduction
Treaty (STARTI) expires in 2009. The year 2009 will be an important
year for the nuclear issue in view of the fact that the Nuclear
Nonproliferation Treaty (NTP) will be re-discussed in the following
year. The United States will conduct broad-based nuclear arms
reduction talks with Russia. I would like to see Japan's support."

A visit to Hiroshima by President Obama would do much to bring about
closure to the postwar period. It also would probably be seen as
symbolic of America's new nuclear policy.

2009 will be the 49th year since the revision of the U.S.-Japan
Security Treaty (in 1960). For Japan to maintain influence in the
Six-Party Talks on North Korea's nuclear issue, the key is in
finding a way to bring the U.S. along. Japan, as the only country
that suffered atomic bombings, will now be tested.

(4) Japan still locked in Cold War mentality

MAINICHI (Page 2) (Abridged slightly)
January 3, 2009

Takashi Sudo

Throughout the postwar period, while working to deepen their
bilateral alliance, Japan and the United States have been avoiding
facing up to the paradox between the legacy of the atomic bombings
of Japan and the U.S. nuclear umbrella covering Japan. Although
Japan has aimed at the abolition of all nuclear weapons, it has
never pursued the United States' "crime against humanity."

But given the passage of over 60 years after the end of the war, a
multi-polarized world, and the global trend of nuclear
nonproliferation, a day may come in the tenure of President Barack
Obama to turn the unforgotten historical page for a true
reconciliation between Japan and the United States, with nuclear
security as the lever.


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U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Hiroshima last September,
and Japan's Lower House Speaker Yohei Kono laid a wreath at Pearl
Harbor in December. Their acts largely reflect their political
beliefs. As seen in the release of the Kono Statement that offered
an apology by acknowledging the Imperial Japanese Army's involvement
in the forceful recruitment of the so-called "comfort women," Kono
has special feelings toward Japan's historical events. Pelosi is a
liberal from San Francisco who attaches importance to human rights.

Although some think that their visits carried little diplomatic
significance, it is a fact that the events went down in the postwar
history of Japan-U.S. relations. They have produced a momentum for
reciprocal visits to those sites by the Japanese prime minister and
the U.S. President.

In January 2007 and January 2008, the Wall Street Journal ran
proposals calling for the abolition of nuclear weapons, signed by
former Secretaries of State Henry Kissinger and George Shultz and
other foreign affairs heavyweights. Support has spread among
scholars, as well. People have begun discussing an argument for
nuclear abolition as a pragmatic policy approach to stop nuclear
proliferation.

At the same time, a Cold War mentality is still very much alive
among Japanese lawmakers. A party-head debate took place in July
2007 between the heads of the Liberal Democratic Party and the
Democratic Party of Japan. In the session, DPJ President Ichiro
Ozawa asked: "Don't you have a plan to ask the United States for an
apology for dropping the atomic bombs?" Prime Minister Shinzo Abe
replied: "I don't think it's proper to seek a U.S. apology while our
country is relying on its nuclear deterrence."

Although he advocated breaking away from the postwar regime, Shinzo
Abe, as the prime minister of Japan, which is still under the U.S.
nuclear umbrella, remained locked in a Cold-War mentality of shying
away from pursuing the United States' "crime" of having dropped
atomic bombs on Japan.

Despite growing calls for nuclear abolition in the United States,
there are no visible moves in Japanese political and diplomatic
circles to go beyond the framework of the Cold War-era nuclear
strategy.

There is no doubt that a visit to Hiroshima by President Obama would
give the world an impression that change has come to U.S. nuclear
policy. Whether the nuclear disarmament trend can help bring about
reconciliation between Japan and the United States in the postwar
era depends on the conceptual ability of Japanese diplomacy.

(5) Finance Ministry to set up intellectual property protection fund
for developing countries in cooperation with WCO

NIKKEI (Page 3) (Full)
January 4, 2009

The Finance Ministry will help developing countries protect their
intellectual properties. To that end, it will set up a new fund
under the World Customs Organization (WCO),an international
organization of customs houses, to develop the capabilities of
customs officers of developing countries by using this fund.
Contributing funds for the purpose of protecting intellectual
properties at the water's edge is an unusual step. The Finance

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Ministry will seek cooperation from other countries, as well. It
will aim at stopping articles that violate intellectual property
rights from being exported by tightening restrictions at customs
houses in emerging and developing countries.

The WCO is a Brussels-based international organization of customs
houses with a membership of about 170 countries. The Finance
Minister will establish possibly before the end of the month a fund
specified for protecting intellectual properties as part of the
WCO's customs house cooperation fund and disburse approximately 200
million yen. It will continue to provide funds in fiscal 2009 and
beyond. It will call on the U.S. and European countries to also
contribute funds.

Kunio Mikuriya, a former Finance Ministry official, on January 1,
2009 took office as secretary general of the WCO. He is the first
Japanese WCO secretary general. The Finance Ministry wants to
support the new Mikuriya setup with financial contributions.

The fund will be used for the training of customs officers of
developing countries who inspect goods being imported or exported.
To be precise, the Finance Ministry plans to dispatch WCO officials
and customs officers of industrialized countries, such as Japan, to
developing countries to teach local customs officers the features
and kinds of fake brand-name goods and products carrying fake names
of manufactures, and how to crack down on trade in such goods. The
WCO will conduct a fact-finding survey to determine the level of
customs officials and the situation of the violation of intellectual
properties in about 10 developing countries a year so as to
determine the capabilities of customs houses of those countries.

Goods that violate intellectual property rights, such as China-made
motorbikes carrying the trademarks of Japanese makers, are being
traded among emerging and developing countries, causing much damage.
There has also been a report of a case in which medicines pretending
to be a magic bullet for AIDS were exported to Africa and Latin
America where the patients administered those medicines died. The
perception that it is necessary to protect intellectual properties
at the water's edge is spreading in emerging and developing
countries, as well.

(6) Japan, South Korea joint poll: 51 PERCENT of Japanese
respondents feel friendship toward South Korea, compared to 37
PERCENT of South Koreans

MAINICHI (Page 1) (Full)
January 4, 2009

Mainichi Shimbun and Chonsun Ilbo, a newspaper published in Seoul,
carried out a joint poll last December. Asked whether they felt
friendship toward the other country, Japanese with such feelings
toward South Korea totaled 51 PERCENT , adding those who felt great
friendship and those feeling somewhat friendly. In contrast, 37
PERCENT of South Koreans felt friendship toward Japan, indicating
that more Japanese felt friendly toward that country in Japan than
did South Koreans toward Japan.

This is the fifth time for the joint survey, which was launched in

1995. Mainichi Shimbun conducted it on December 6 and 7, while the
Chonsun Ilbo made its survey on the 20th and the 21st. The responses
totaled 1031 and 1052 responses, respectively.


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The previous poll in July 2002, right after the joint hosting of the
2002 Soccer World Cup, produced the highest rates of friendship
between the two countries: 77 PERCENT for Japan and 42 PERCENT for
South Korea. The rate having dropped 26 points since that peak year
has now returned to the level of the 1999 poll, when it had reached
48 PERCENT .

In the South Korea poll, those feeling no friendship toward Japan
stood at 62 PERCENT . However, for young persons between 19 and 29,
those with friendly feelings toward Japan reached 49 PERCENT ,
probably reflecting the popularity of Japanese pop music and anime
cartoons. Fifty one percent of that age bracket felt no friendship
toward Japan. There are marked differences in views toward Japan
depending on the age bracket. On the question of North Korea's
nuclear weapons program, 46 PERCENT of the Japanese thought
pressure on that country should be increased, while 39 PERCENT
wanted priority given to dialogue. In South Korea, 75 PERCENT gave
priority to dialogue, three times the 23 PERCENT who thought
pressure should be increased.

(7) TOP HEADLINES

Asahi, Mainichi, Yomiuri, Sankei &Tokyo Shimbun:
Israel begins ground attack on Gaza

Nikkei:
Government eyeing patent law revisions to include software

Akahata:
Food, clothing and housing, as well as jobs must be secured

(8) EDITORIALS

Asahi:
(1) Lower House election should be conducted quickly
(2) Alcoholics on increase among the elderly

Mainichi:
(1) Global economic recession: Cooperation is the prescription for
recovery, create joint projects in East Asia

Yomiuri:
(1) Fundamental change needed to lift economy

Nikkei:
(1) Make the environment, energy leading players in bringing about
economic recovery

Sankei:
(1) Good opportunity for constitutional review
(2) Why should Tokyo host Olympics?

Tokyo Shimbun:
(1) Thoughts at beginning of the year: Obama's era and the East
European revolution of 1989

Akahata:
(1) Crisis of Japan-U.S. alliance: In order to carry out
international contribution, Japan-U.S. Security Treaty should be
abolished

(9) Prime Minister's schedule, January 3

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NIKKEI (Page 2) (Full)
January 4, 2009

11:00 Had a walk around his private residence in Kamiyamacho.
15:49 Met LDP Election Strategy Council Vice Chairman Makoto Suga at
his private residence, joined in by Chief Cabinet Secretary Kawamura
and his wife. Kawamura stayed on.
17:30 Placed a telephone call to Palestinian leader Abbas in the
presence of Kawamura, Assistant Chief Cabinet Secretary Hayashi, and
Foreign Ministry Middle Eastern and African Affairs Bureau
Director-General Suzuki. Kawamura stayed on.

Prime Minister's schedule, January 4

NIKKEI (Page 2) (Full)
January 5, 2009

09:09
Met at the Kantei Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary Matsumoto, joined
in by LDP presidential special assistant Shimamura.

10:00
Held a New Year press conference. Afterward met Chief Cabinet
Secretary Kawamura.

11:10
Departed from JR Tokyo Station on Nozomi No. 23, accompanied by MAFF
Minister Ishiba, Administrative Reform Minister Amari, Deputy Chief
Cabinet Secretaries Matsumoto and Konoike.

12:51
Arrived at JR Nagoya Station, received by LDP Aichi chapter chairman
Omura.

12:57
Met Aichi Gov. Kanda and others in the Kintetsu VIP room.

13:10
Departed from the station on a Kintetsu express.

14:33
Arrived at Kintetsu Ujiyamada St., received by Mie Gov. Noro and
others.

14:40
Arrived at Ise Shrine. Paid homage at Outer Shrine.

15:08
Paid homage at Inner Shrine.

15:46
Received bouquets in front of Shrine Office from the Boy Scout
Association of Japan Ise 7th Group and the Girl Scout Association of
Japan Mie 1st Group.

16:24
Departed from Kintetsu Ujiyamada St. on a Kintetsu express.

17:42
Arrived at Kintetsu Nagoya St.


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17:45
Met JR Tokai Chairman Kasai and others in the JR Nagoya Station VIP
room.

18:14
Departed from the station on Nozomi No. 140.

19:56
Arrived at JR Tokyo St.

20:15
Dined at a Hotel Okura Japanese restaurant with LDP Secretary
General Hosoda, Policy Research Council Chairman Hori, Diet Affairs
Committee Chairman Oshima, New Komeito Representative Ota, Secretary
General Kitagawa, in the presence of Chief Cabinet Secretary
Kawamura.

21:10
Returned to his private residence in Kamiyamacho.

SCHIEFFER