Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
09TOKYO1084
2009-05-13 07:31:00
UNCLASSIFIED
Embassy Tokyo
Cable title:  

DAILY SUMMARY OF JAPANESE PRESS 05/13/09

Tags:  OIIP KMDR KPAO PGOV PINR ECON ELAB JA 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXRO2955
PP RUEHFK RUEHKSO RUEHNAG RUEHNH
DE RUEHKO #1084/01 1330731
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 130731Z MAY 09
FM AMEMBASSY TOKYO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 2905
INFO RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC PRIORITY
RHEHAAA/THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUEAWJA/USDOJ WASHDC PRIORITY
RULSDMK/USDOT WASHDC PRIORITY
RUCPDOC/USDOC WASHDC PRIORITY
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC PRIORITY
RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHDC//J5//
RHHMUNA/HQ USPACOM HONOLULU HI
RHHMHBA/COMPACFLT PEARL HARBOR HI
RHMFIUU/HQ PACAF HICKAM AFB HI//CC/PA//
RHMFIUU/USFJ //J5/JO21//
RUYNAAC/COMNAVFORJAPAN YOKOSUKA JA
RUAYJAA/CTF 72
RUEHNH/AMCONSUL NAHA 6280
RUEHFK/AMCONSUL FUKUOKA 3950
RUEHOK/AMCONSUL OSAKA KOBE 7752
RUEHNAG/AMCONSUL NAGOYA 1580
RUEHKSO/AMCONSUL SAPPORO 4481
RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING 9226
RUEHUL/AMEMBASSY SEOUL 5244
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 5013
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 10 TOKYO 001084

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR E, P, EB, EAP/J, EAP/P, EAP/PD, PA;
WHITE HOUSE/NSC/NEC; JUSTICE FOR STU CHEMTOB IN ANTI-TRUST DIVISION;
TREASURY/OASIA/IMI/JAPAN; DEPT PASS USTR/PUBLIC AFFAIRS OFFICE;
SECDEF FOR JCS-J-5/JAPAN,
DASD/ISA/EAPR/JAPAN; DEPT PASS ELECTRONICALLY TO USDA
FAS/ITP FOR SCHROETER; PACOM HONOLULU FOR PUBLIC DIPLOMACY ADVISOR;
CINCPAC FLT/PA/ COMNAVFORJAPAN/PA.

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: OIIP KMDR KPAO PGOV PINR ECON ELAB JA

SUBJECT: DAILY SUMMARY OF JAPANESE PRESS 05/13/09

INDEX:

(1) U.S Treasury Secretary Geithner travelling to China, puts off
trip to Japan (Nikkei)

(2) DPJ official's remark "If the DPJ takes over reins of
government, Japan will not buy U.S. government bonds" sets off
dollar selling on NY market (Jiji Press)

(3) Japan, Russia concludes nuclear agreement; Cooperation on
resources with Russia to be increased (Yomiuri)

(4) Russia Premier Putin makes no promise regarding territorial
dispute, puts "strategic relationship" first (Nikkei)

(5) Japan-US integration to apply pressure on North Korea on
normalization (Sankei)

(6) The election and industrial groups: Anxiety about post-Ozawa
DPJ, as new president may redraw strategy (Nikkei)

(7) DPJ becomes refreshed by Ozawa's resignation!? Needs to present
policies to counter ruling camp (Part 2) (Tokyo Shimbun)

(8) 2nd MSDF dispatch eyed for July against pirates (Nikkei) 9

ARTICLES:

(1) U.S Treasury Secretary Geithner travelling to China, puts off
trip to Japan

NIKKEI (Internet edition) (Full)
May 13, 2009

Yusuke Yoneyama in Washington

The U.S. Department of the Treasury on May 12 revealed that
Secretary Geithner will travel to Beijing, China, and the end of
this month for meetings with high-level Chinese officials on June
1-2. There will be a broad range of talks on important bilateral
issues, including relations between the two countries being
strengthened in order to sustain economic growth. With the exception
of such specific purposes as attending international conferences in
certain countries, this will be the first time for the Secretary to
visit a country for bilateral talks.

According to a Treasury Department source, the Secretary because of

a scheduling difficulty will not be stopping in Japan, but he has
expressed his strong desire to visit there in the near future.

The Obama administration during the U.S.-China summit meeting in
April agreed to expand the strategic economic dialogue with China
begun under the Bush administration. The two themes of the dialogue
are political-security and economic affairs. The first meeting is
planned to be held in Washington this summer, with Secretary
Geithner serving as the American representative for the economic
area.

(2) DPJ official's remark "If the DPJ takes over reins of
government, Japan will not buy U.S. government bonds" sets off
dollar selling on NY market


TOKYO 00001084 002 OF 010


Jiji Com
9:17, May 13, 2009

New York, Jiji Press, May 12

BBC of Britain on May 12 reported that Lower House member Masaharu
Nakagawa, "Next Cabinet" finance minister, said, "If the Democratic
Party of Japan (DPJ) takes over the reins of government, Japan will
not purchase U.S. bonds." This statement has set off dollar-selling
against the yen on the New York Foreign Exchange Market. It is
believed that the expression of concern about the safety of the
dollar by a senior official of the DPJ, an opposition party that
could take the reins of government in the next general election, has
fueled anxieties about the dollar.

(3) Japan, Russia concludes nuclear agreement; Cooperation on
resources with Russia to be increased

YOMIURI (Page 11) (Abridged slightly)
May 13, 2009

Tsuyoshi Ito, Daisuke Segawa

With the arrival in Japan of Prime Minister Vladimir Putin
yesterday, great progress was made between Japan and Russia in such
fields as resource and energy development, as seen in the signing of
a bilateral nuclear agreement designed to promote the civilian use
of nuclear power, such as nuclear power plants. Although Japanese
companies pin great hopes on the promising Russian market, they also
harbor strong distrust in Russia's policies, such as one giving
preferential treatment to domestic companies. In order to deepen
economic relations between the two countries, many challenges must
be overcome.

The Japan-Russia nuclear agreement is likely to offer many
advantages to both countries.

Japan is the third largest nuclear power-generating country
following the United States and France. Japan also has excellent
technology in manufacturing nuclear reactors and the like. Yet the
country's self-sufficiency rate of enriched uranium that is used as
fuel is less than 3%. This can explain why Japan has to rely heavily
on imports from Europe. If Japan can import (enriched uranium) from
Russia whose uranium enrichment capability reportedly accounts for
40% of the global total, it would help the country stably secure
resources. Meanwhile, Russia, which plans to build 40 nuclear
reactors over the next two decades, is counting on Japan's advanced
technology.

The agreement is likely to give a momentum to Japanese corporations
as well. Toshiba Corp. reached an accord yesterday with
Atomenergoprom, Russia's state-owned nuclear energy company, to
develop uranium-enrichment plants. The conclusion of the nuclear
agreement has now made it possible to pursue technological
cooperation and joint ventures between the two countries.

Putin addressed a Japan-Russia economic forum in Tokyo yesterday in
which he urged Japanese firms to participate in the development of
the Russian Far East, saying, "Japanese companies could take part in
the project to develop pipelines from Sakhalin to Vladivostok." He
also called for cooperation in such fields as energy, timber
processing, and transport.

TOKYO 00001084 003 OF 010



Japanese companies are highly alarmed at Russia's restriction on
foreign investment. (In 2006),Shell and Japanese trading companies
were forced by the Russian government to sell half their stakes plus
one share in Sakhalin-2 to Gazprom, Russia's state-run natural-gas
export company.

Russia also raised tariffs on steel products and autos earlier this
year as a support measure for the manufacturing industry. In his
meeting with Putin yesterday, Aso expressed strong concern about
Russia's protectionist moves, saying, "Russia has repeatedly raised
tariffs." Putin rebutted Aso, noting, "We have been abiding by
(international agreements to block protectionism)."

Japan Oil, Gas and Metals National Corp. (JOGMEC),an organization
affiliated with the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry,
announced yesterday that it would establish a joint venture with
Irkutsk Oil Co. to begin exploration for the development of
oilfields in East Siberia.

They are expected to drill two blocks stretching over roughly 8,142
square kilometers which is believed to hold a combined 100 million
barrels of oil reserves. They will conduct drilling by 2013 to
determine the reserves. If the exploration succeeds and the pipeline
connecting Siberia with the Sea of Japan is completed, oil would be
exported to Japan as well.

(4) Russia Premier Putin makes no promise regarding territorial
dispute, puts "strategic relationship" first

NIKKEI (Page 2) (Full)
May 13, 2009

Prime Minister Taro Aso and Russian Premier Vladimir Putin yesterday
made it clear during their talks that the two countries would deepen
their strategic relationship by promoting mutually beneficial
cooperation in the economic area, such as energy development. The
Japanese government has taken the move as a preparation to pave the
way for making progress in the dispute over the four Russia-held
islands off northeastern Hokkaido. Therefore, many in the Japanese
government are greatly looking forward to seeing specific progress
in the summit meeting in July between Aso and President Dmitry
Medvedev. Some government officials are alarmed about developments
because they sense that Moscow is simply flying a trial balloon
because Putin refrained from making more specific remarks on the
territorial issue.

Both prime ministers were boisterous at a joint press conference
after their meeting yesterday.

Aso said: "(Their meeting) is an important step to raise the
Japan-Russia relationship to a higher dimension."

Putin: "I'm satisfied with dynamic developments in bilateral
relations."

The Russia economy, too, has been affected by the sharp plunge in
crude oil prices and by the global economic recession. Therefore,
Putin's major purpose to hold the meeting with Aso was to promote
trade and economic exchanges. It can be said that Putin's Japan
visit this time achieved such actual results as the signing of the
Japan-Russia nuclear deal, which will pave the way for bilateral

TOKYO 00001084 004 OF 010


exchanges in the nuclear power area.

Putin stated on the territorial issue during the meeting: "While
global power relations are rapidly changing, Russia like Japan
strongly hopes to eliminate the negative legacy of the past." At the
joint press conference, as well, he said: "An every possible option
will be discussed at the Japan-Russia summit in July." He hinted at
possible improvement in the territorial dispute.

Putin, however, did not refer to a "creative approach," on which Aso
and Medvedev agreed in their meeting in February, to expedite work
to resolve the territorial row. He also pointed out that Russia was
ready to discuss a peace treaty. A senior Japanese Foreign Ministry
official has already taken a precaution, noting: "There will be no
fresh proposal from Russia in July, either."

What will likely trigger controversy is the fact that Putin took up
again the 1956 Japan-Soviet Joint Declaration which stipulated the
return of the two islands - the Habomai islet group and Shikotan
Island. Referring to the process of drafting the 2001 Irkutsk
Statement, which was regarded as the basic legal document for peace
treaty negotiations, Putin said: "We had a hard time at that time."
His remark can be taken a message that the return of the two isles
was the limit.

The Japanese public are mainly still calling for the return of all
four islands. The leaders' strong political bases in their countries
are a precondition for progress on the territorial talks. Some
government officials are motivated by a desire to link talks on the
Northern Territories to boosting the popularity of the Aso
administration. If the Russian side is determined that the Japanese
political situation will uncertain with the House of Representatives
election drawing closer, chances are slim that Russia will make
concessions. While the commotion created by Democratic Party of
Japan (DPJ) President Ichiro Ozawa's announcement of his resignation
is spreading, prospects for progress in the territorial talks will
gradually become bleak.

(5) Japan-US integration to apply pressure on North Korea on
normalization

SANKEI (Page 7) (Full)
May 13, 2009

Hisahiko Okazaki, former ambassador to Thailand

Former U.S. administration too impatient for results

U.S.-DPRK negotiations since North Korea's development of nuclear
weapons became an issue can be roughly classified into two types.
First, there was the Framework Agreement during the Clinton
administration. The basic assessment of the situation is quite clear
from documents from that period: a military conflict might result in
nearly 1 million casualties, so the only option was to compromise.
The main points of the compromise were that the DPRK would freeze
operations at the Yongbyon facility under IAEA inspections and would
receive heavy fuel oil supplies in return. The DPRK abided by this
compromise faithfully from 1994 to 2002.
The other is the policy of calling North Korea part of an "axis of
evil" after George W. Bush became president. Theoretically, this was
a policy that would not be viable without a prediction of the DPRK's
collapse. Subsequently, the Framework Agreement was suspended on

TOKYO 00001084 005 OF 010


grounds of North Korea's suspected enrichment of uranium. But the
DPRK not only did not collapse, it went on to resume operations at
Yongbyon and conduct a nuclear test in 2006.
In that sense, the Bush policy failed. Yet, it had not been doomed
to failure. After the nuclear test, Japan and the U.S. imposed tough
sanctions on North Korea and the country was in trouble immediately.
If such sanctions had continued one more year, compromise from the
DPRK might have been possible, not as a result of a Clinton-type
"carrot," but owing to Bush's "stick," which was the essence of his
policy. However, the U.S. Department of State hastened to reap the
fruits of sanctions, without consulting with its ally Japan.

Bilateral talks effective for substantive issues

As a result, North Korea was given the rewards of the lifting of
financial sanctions and removal from the list of state sponsors of
terrorism and parts of the Yongbyon facility were destroyed. But
now, the DPRK has announced that the facility will be restored. In
other words, with hindsight, the DPRK was given absolutely
unnecessary rewards, and the next administration has come to inherit
the situation that had existed prior to Clinton's Framework
Agreement.
It is quite obvious that North Korea will demand at least oil or
money as reward for its halting the restoration of the Yongbyon
facility. Yet, plutonium that has already been produced will
probably not be discarded. So the only outcome will be preventing
further production of plutonium.
So, what can we fall back on? The Six-Party Talks have not been able
to produce any substantive results. The only achievement has been
North Korea showing up at meetings occasionally through China's
mediation. Any diplomat knows that it is meaningless to negotiate
for mere participation in meetings in exchange for substantive
issues.
The most successful U.S.-DPRK negotiations in the past were those
conducted by former defense secretary William Perry from 1998 to

1999. He succeeded in conducting on-site inspection of suspected
underground nuclear facilities and restraining Taepodong launchings,
while the only rewards given were the continuation of the Framework
Agreement and some humanitarian aid.
It is noteworthy that Perry based his negotiations on complete
agreement with U.S. allies Japan and the ROK, and he held repeated
trilateral talks. He succeeded in producing these results by
presenting proposals approved by all three governments to the DPRK.
The Japanese representative at that time, Ryozo Kato, who later
became ambassador to the U.S., remembers this as the most successful
and most satisfactory negotiations for Japan.
As an issue for the future, I have no objections to resuming the
Six-Party Talks. However, any diplomatic practitioner knows that as
a general rule, bilateral talks are more suitable for resolving
substantive issues than multilateral conferences.
I would like to put my hopes on bilateral talks between the U.S. and
North Korea based on full consultations with Japan and the ROK.

Comprehensive denuclearization and complete solution to abduction
issue

I would like to present my proposals here.
If diplomatic relations between Japan and North Korea are
normalized, the DPRK will probably demand compensation comparable to
the $500 million paid at the time of Japan-ROK normalization in

1965.
Considering the difference between the size of the population

TOKYO 00001084 006 OF 010


between North and South Korea and foreign exchange rate changes
since then, the amount of compensation will be determined by the
normalization talks. While the Japanese government has never
mentioned any specific amount, 1 trillion yen is a widely talked
about figure. This is an enormous amount compared to the concessions
that the U.S. has ever offered and can possibly serve as a reward
for comprehensive denuclearization.
My proposal is to make this the joint asset of the Japan-U.S.
alliance. That is, negotiations for normalization with the DPRK by
Japan and the U.S. would be integrated; the comprehensive
discontinuation of nuclear programs and a complete solution to the
abduction issue would be made an uncompromising condition; and the
U.S. would go into the negotiations as the representative of Japan
and the ROK.
The ROK will be the main beneficiary of the U.S.-DPRK and Japan-DPRK
normalization, and it will most probably have an interest in the
proper balance with the compensation paid at the time of Japan-ROK
normalization, so its participation is quite natural.
With such an explicit and just goal, there would be legitimate
justification to continue to implement the strict sanctions imposed
in light of the recent missile experiment, no matter how tough they
are, until the goal is achieved. This will also bring about
consistency in the strategy of Japan and the U.S. against North
Korea.
North Korea would probably react strongly, but militarily, its
conventional forces are weak and its nuclear weapons and missiles
are thought to be still in the developmental stage. It will probably
not have a strategy to counter the above proposals for the time
being.

(6) The election and industrial groups: Anxiety about post-Ozawa
DPJ, as new president may redraw strategy

NIKKEI (Page 2) (Full)
May 13, 2009

"President (Katsuya) Okada may be anti-labor union."
"Will Mr Ichiro Ozawa still be involved with the next House of
Representatives election?"

Grassroots support to change?

The election of the new Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) president on
May 16 became a topic of discussion at an informal executive meeting
at Rengo (Japanese Trade Union Confederation) headquarters on May

12. Various opinions were voiced, but the officials merely decided
to issue a public statement that went, "Our stance of seeking a
change of administration remains unchanged."
Rengo had been concerned that victory in the Lower House election
will be difficult if the Nishimatsu Construction Company scandal
dragged on. Rengo President Tsuyoshi Takagi remonstrated with Ozawa
in April: "The election situation is very tough." In that sense,
Ozawa's resignation came as a temporary relief.
However, this does not mean that Rengo's concerns have been
dispelled. Ozawa had shown admirable solicitousness -- by attending
dinner parties with local labor groups and filling the cups of
rank-and-file union members all around, for instance. If his
successor negates Ozawa's campaign style, a senior Rengo official
worries that "all our efforts so far will come to nothing."
With Ozawa's announcement of his resignation, the DPJ is shifting
even more to the combat mode for the next Lower House election. Will
there be any changes in its efforts to enlist support groups? Rengo

TOKYO 00001084 007 OF 010


is not the only group that is watching this issue. Ozawa's efforts
to encroach on Liberal Democratic Party (LDP)-affiliated
organization so far also need to be watched closely.
At the end of the day, the focus of attention is "who will be the
next president?" Ozawa has indicated his intention to continue to be
involved with campaign strategy after stepping down as president. If
Secretary General Yukio Hatoyama, who has supported Ozawa, becomes
the new president, the dominant view is that "there will be no
change in the campaign strategy."

Distance from the labor unions

Okada, rumored to be a candidate for party president, once engaged
in the first-ever policy consultation with the Nippon Keidanren
(Japan Business Federation) in an attempt to reduce dependence on
labor unions when he was president in 2005. It is believed that if
he becomes president, he will give more importance to winning the
support of unaffiliated voters.
Meanwhile, the Postal Policy Research Institute (Yusei Seisaku
Kenkyukai or Yuseiken),consisting of members of the National
Association of Postmasters (Zenkoku Yubinkyokucho Kai or Zentoku),
has decided to support 175 of the DPJ's 261 official candidates. It
will maintain this posture regardless of the outcome of the
presidential election. This group reckons that a change of
administration is the shortcut to its long-cherished dream of
reviewing the postal privatization policy. There are other groups
with which Ozawa has developed a close cooperative relationship,
such as the Association of Land and House Investigators, or the
National Association of Private Day Care Centers. The distance the
new DPJ leadership keeps from these groups will also be a focal
issue from now on.

(7) DPJ becomes refreshed by Ozawa's resignation!? Needs to present
policies to counter ruling camp (Part 2)

TOKYO SHIMBUN (Page 23) (Full)
May 12, 2009

To a question of who is desirable as Democratic Party of Japan
President Ichiro Ozawa's successor, Harumi Arima, a political
commentator, replied:

"It is said that both the Liberal Democratic Party and the DPJ lack
competent members, but focusing on his being extremely scrupulous
when it comes to money, I recommend Vice President Katsuya Okada.
The current structure under the lead of Secretary General Yukio
Hatoyama and Deputy President Naoto Kan, which was launched 10 years
ago, has not been effectively working. Seiji Maehara failed to
manage the party as a result of playing up his "youthfulness (or
immaturity)." If Okada assumes the presidency, the party will surely
be refreshed."

Difficult finding of qualified successor

Minoru Morita, a political commentator, also pointed out the lack of
members who have the credentials to succeed Ozawa. He flatly said:

"There is none who has the competence required to lead the DPJ.
Hatoyama, who supported Ozawa until the last moment, might be the
most likely candidate. But the DPJ lacks policies, so I think it
unlikely for the party to be placed at an advantage in the next
general election owing to Ozawa's resignation."

TOKYO 00001084 008 OF 010



Reiko Zanma, a freelance producer, considers that Maehara is a
desirable successor to Ozawa. Maehara once assumed the party
presidency but resigned, taking responsibility for an e-mail fiasco.
She recommends Maehara through the process of elimination.
"Hatoyama, Kan and Okada are no longer fresh. Their policy stances
have already known, so they will be unable to appeal to voters'
emotions. But Maehara is still an unknown quantity. In this sense, I
think he is desirable."

Hiroko Hagiwara, and economic journalist, remarked:

"Mr. Ozawa has dragged an image of being engaged in money-driven
politics since he was an LDP member. In contrast, Mr. Okada has
given an image of being clean. If Okada becomes DPJ president, the
party can distinguish itself from the LDP. If Akira Nagatsuma and
other members support him, public support for the party may pick up
again."

Hideki Wada, a psychiatrist, made this remark:

"Although this option might be a gamble, I pick Okada. If Okada, who
has given an image of being serious and steady, is installed in the
presidency, Prime Minister Aso might look silly in the eyes of
people. The question is whether Okada, who seems to have little
flexibility, can cleverly handle economic and diplomatic challenges.
The key lies in whether the party can underscore the image that it
implements policies after they are presented."

Ozawa cited a change of government as the main reason for his
resignation. Arima indicated that there is still a high possibility
of a regime change, remarking:

"The energy calling for a regime change is a matter separate from
growing calls for Ozawa's resignation. Rather, Ozawa's resignation
might encourage voters to support the DPJ without hesitation."

But he added: "The DPJ might lose support from those who wanted to
see Ozawa assume the premiership.

Still many months left before general election

Hagiwara presented a similar view to Arima's:

"Although I do not think Mr. Ozawa did anything wrong, the arrest of
his aide deteriorated the party's image, resulting in boosting
public support of the LDP. The new-type influenza scare has also
contributed to giving a boost to the Aso administration for its
countermeasures. With this (Ozawa's resignation),I think, the
situation will change."

Even so, in the DPJ, there are also some grounds for concern.
Hagiwara commented:

"Some predict that the next general election might take place in
September. During the period up to the election, the DPJ, a
hodge-podge group, could be scattered apart. The question is whether
such veterans as Mr. Ozawa will offer strong support (to the new
president). Either way, the DPJ will face a crucial juncture from
now."

Wada made this remark:

TOKYO 00001084 009 OF 010



"If the main opposition party continues to take its conventional
offensive approach against the ruling parties, no change will occur.
... The Aso administration has begun to seriously tackle policies in
the belief that the chance to win is now appearing before it, since
it has made no errors. In order to turn around the tables, the DPJ
needs to come up with policy measures capable of competing with the
ruling parties' measures."

Meanwhile, in analyzing the illegal donation cases, in which Ozawa's
first state-funded secretary was arrested, Toin University of
Yokohama Law School Graduate School Professor Nobuo Gohara, a former
public prosecutor of the Tokyo District Public Prosecutors Office,
urged all people to continue to pay attention to this case,
"considering what this case was." He said:

"I wonder if this was that serious a case. Most lawmakers seem to be
doing the same thing. (His office) did not hide the donations it had
received, and their total amount was small. I have doubts about the
prosecutor's charge that (Ozawa) should assume responsibility for
infringing on the principle of making moves of political funds
transparent. There is a problem in the arrest (of his secretary) by
the prosecutor. ... Election circumstances probably were behind his
decision, but if a candidate for the premiership is driven to step
down over such an incident, the Japanese democratic system will
collapse. ... The media's stance of paying attention only to whether
(Ozawa) would resign also poses a problem"

(8) 2nd MSDF dispatch eyed for July against pirates

NIKKEI (Page 2) (Abridged)
May 2, 2009

The government plans to send a second batch of Maritime Self-Defense
Force destroyers in July for an antipiracy mission in waters off the
eastern African coast of Somalia. A government-introduced antipiracy
bill, now before the Diet, has already cleared the House of
Representatives. This is the first legislation that allows the
Self-Defense Forces to use weapons overseas outside the scope of
legitimate self-defense and emergency evacuation. The Defense
Ministry will provide MSDF personnel with special education and
training for about a month in order to avoid bringing about an
unexpected happening with the new set of standards for their use of
weapons.

The antipiracy bill passed through the House of Representatives on
April 23, and the legislation will be debated in the House of
Councillors after the early May holidays. The leading opposition
Democratic Party of Japan (Minshuto) will not try to draw out the
Diet deliberations, so the bill is expected to be enacted into law
during the current Diet session. The new law will come into effect
30 days after its Diet passage. After the legislation's enactment,
the government will begin to make preparations in full swing for
another MSDF dispatch to Somalia waters. The government will send
out a second squadron of MSDF destroyers as soon as the new law
comes into effect.

The Defense Ministry is now working out its new rules of engagement
(ROE) for SDF troops on overseas missions. The antipiracy
legislation allows the SDF to fire on pirate ships if they refuse
orders to stop or do not stop tailing commercial ships. Unlike the
SDF's overseas activities in the past, this is the first ROE

TOKYO 00001084 010 OF 010


regulation that incorporates cases in which the SDF is allowed to
use weapons before coming under fire.

The question is what to do up until the second dispatch of MSDF
destroyers is dispatched. The government has sent out the first
squadron of MSDF destroyers to waters off Somalia under the current
law. The dispatched MSDF destroyers, after arriving in the Gulf of
Aden in late March, started to escort Japanese-registered and
Japanese-chartered ships there for maritime security operations
under the current law. The MSDF destroyers convoyed a total of 36
ships in 12 shuttles during one month up until April 30. Under the
current law, the MSDF is only allowed to escort Japanese ships and
Japan-linked ships and use weapons for legitimate self-defense or
emergency evacuation only.

In the past month, however, the MSDF destroyers already received
three radio calls from foreign ships for help. They rushed to those
foreign ships and repelled suspicious boats with their search
lighting and sound warning. However, something unexpected could
happen there. Even after warning, the pirates may continue to attack
commercial ships. In that case, what the MSDF can do under the
current law is limited.

The government is also mulling whether or not to let the MSDF
destroyers break in between commercial ships and pirate ships. In
that case, they could fall under attack from pirates with rocket
launchers.

The government and the ruling parties had plans to apply the new
law, after its enactment, to the currently deployed MSDF destroyers.
However, there could be an accident as a result of applying the
different ROE regulation to one and the same squadron. "We only pray
until the second squadron replaces the first one," said a senior
Defense Ministry official.

ZUMWALT