Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
09TOKYO1082
2009-05-13 01:44:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Tokyo
Cable title:  

RESIGNATION OF DPJ LEADER ICHIRO OZAWA

Tags:  PINR PGOV JA 
pdf how-to read a cable
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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TOKYO 001082 

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/12/2019
TAGS: PINR PGOV JA
SUBJECT: RESIGNATION OF DPJ LEADER ICHIRO OZAWA

TOKYO 00001082 001.2 OF 003


Classified By: CDA James P. Zumwalt, reasons 1.4(b),(d).

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TOKYO 001082

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/12/2019
TAGS: PINR PGOV JA
SUBJECT: RESIGNATION OF DPJ LEADER ICHIRO OZAWA

TOKYO 00001082 001.2 OF 003


Classified By: CDA James P. Zumwalt, reasons 1.4(b),(d).


1. (C) Summary: DPJ leader Ichiro Ozawa resigned from the
party presidency on May 11, succumbing to a combination of
sinking polls, criticism from within his own party,
continuing press scrutiny over his role in a political funds
scandal, and the realization that he had become a liability
in the DPJ's quest to unseat the ruling LDP-Komeito coalition
in the next Lower House election. Ozawa's decision ends two
months of intense media speculation over his political
future, but gives rise to new questions over a possible
succession battle within the DPJ and its potential impact on
key legislation, the Diet schedule, and the timing and
outcome of key Lower House elections. Former DPJ Presidents
Hatoyama and Okada are leading contenders to succeed Ozawa,
in a party presidential election that may take place as early
as May 16. End Summary.

DPJ Moving Quickly to Elect a New Leader
--------------


2. (C) Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) President Ichiro Ozawa
announced his resignation as party leader at a late afternoon
press conference on May 11, citing party unity and ending
speculation that he might try to weather allegations of
political funds violations and hold on until key Lower House
elections later this year. Secretary General Yukio Hatoyama
announced his intention to resign as well. Ozawa's
resignation means the DPJ will need to hold a new leadership
election quickly, to avoid losing further ground in the Diet
against a newly resurgent Prime Minister Taro Aso and his
ruling coalition. Media attention has already turned to
whether Ozawa's resignation is good news or bad news for the
DPJ, and this party leadership election will be the first big
test. The DPJ Executive Committee gathered quickly on May 12
to hear directly from Ozawa and to lay out the rules for
electing a successor as early as May 16. Two former DPJ
Presidents, Hatoyama and current Vice President Katsuya
Okada, are obvious front-runners to replace Ozawa, but a
number of younger candidates could make a run for the party
President position as well, according to DPJ lawmaker Akihisa
Nagashima.


3. (C) The conservative Hatoyama has served Ozawa well as a

proxy and should draw support from the same groups that
backed Ozawa, in addition to the roughly 25 Diet members in
his own group within the DPJ. Okada, the "Mr. Clean" of
Japanese politics, is a good choice to restore the party's
image among the public, but may not enjoy wide enough support
from conservatives. Technically, he has no fixed group in
the DPJ, but is widely acknowledged to enjoy the backing of
many younger and mid-level members, as well as those who lost
their election campaigns under his leadership of the party in

2005. DPJ Lower House member Kenji Tamura told the Embassy
he expects his own Noda-Maehara group within the DPJ to back
Okada, but thought Ozawa's group would make a push for
Hatoyama. Okada is "in pretty good shape" to succeed Ozawa,
DPJ Diet Affairs Deputy Jun Azumi told the Embassy, but
cautioned that "things remain unclear."


4. (C) Running unopposed, Ozawa has been "elected" twice
since 2006, and the party was criticized heavily in the media
last August for not putting on a race for the top job. Some
DPJ lawmakers noted at the time that the party could not
withstand a vigorous public debate over the issues and
expressed reluctance to put their party's significant policy
differences on public display. The election rules, which can
be easily amended, call for voting in three stages -- first
at the local chapter level, then at the local assembly level,
and finally at the Diet level. The 300 local chapters and
Diet members get one vote each. The local assembly members
get a total of 100 votes, to be divided proportionally. The
candidate with the most votes wins, regardless of whether
there is a majority. At this point, party executives appear
to be divided over whether to limit the voting to Diet

TOKYO 00001082 002.2 OF 003


members, which would curb public debate, or risk exposing
rifts within the party in the interest of a full-blown
campaign.


5. (C) A key indicator to watch, lawmaker Azumi noted, will
be the extent to which Ozawa and his group try to exercise
influence over the selection. The early consensus among
Embassy contacts is that Ozawa will remain influential behind
the scenes, and his ability to help shape the outcome of the
race to choose his successor could provide early clues to his
new role.

Resignation Could Affect Diet Session, Election Timing
-------------- --------------


6. (C) Prime Minister Aso's move to bring his record
supplementary budget bill to a vote in the Lower House as
early as May 13 triggered massive media speculation that he
would dissolve the Lower House for an election shortly after
passage. One Komeito political secretary opined that Ozawa
chose his timing specifically to upset Aso's plan to call an
election in June. Even before Ozawa's announcement, however,
ruling coalition leaders were already leaning toward
extending the Diet session by nearly two months beyond its
scheduled June 3 close to accommodate Prime Minister Aso's
legislative priorities, according to press reports. One
Embassy contact described the extension as "unavoidable,"
noting that Aso is determined to demonstrate that the ruling
coalition is the "reliable ruling power" in advance of the
next Lower House election. Others have cited the
disincentives to delaying elections, particularly if Ozawa's
successor proves to be a more formidable opponent. Several
have suggested that Aso would do well to bide his time in
hopes that the DPJ will implode under new leadership.


7. (C) Key bills to be passed this session include a
supplementary budget, the anti-piracy bill, a revision to the
National Pension Law, and bills to establish a Consumer
Affairs Agency and consolidate the administration of existing
laws related to consumer safety. The budget bill will be
considered enacted within 30 days of its passage in the Lower
House, but a half-dozen bills related to its implementation
are all subject to a 60-day hold in the opposition-controlled
Upper House, as are the piracy, pension, and consumer
measures. The last three passed the Lower House in mid-April
and can be passed into law by a two-thirds majority override
in mid-June. The budget-related bills, however, will not
pass until the budget passes, giving the Upper House the
ability to hold up elements of the economic stimulus package
well into July before the Lower House can take a re-vote.
Aso's supplementary budget remains unpopular with a majority
of respondents in the most recent polls.

Polls, Internal Dissent, Diet Timing Influenced Decision
-------------- --------------


8. (C) Ozawa's decision comes as something of a surprise, but
was not entirely unexpected. He had been under intense
pressure to resign from the public, the media, and even
members of his own party since March 3, when his political
secretary Takanori Okubo was arrested on suspicion of
knowingly accepting contributions from scandal-tainted
Nishimatsu Construction. Criticism from the media grew even
more intense when Ozawa opted to return to the campaign trail
without confronting the allegations head on. Ozawa has
claimed consistently that the investigation is politically
motivated, but one Embassy contact notes that he has not
requested Okubo's release on bail because he does not want
any of the facts to come out before the election. For its
part, the Office of the Public Prosecutor has decided to
postpone Okubo's trial to avoid influencing the political
situation, the same contact says. Most Embassy contacts
assumed that having failed to resign immediately after
Okubo's arrest or subsequent indictment, Ozawa would remain
in office until closer to the next Lower House campaign,

TOKYO 00001082 003.2 OF 003


possibly stepping down just prior to the election to give his
party a boost. Given Ozawa's penchant for secrecy, few
outside of his very small inner circle of advisors and
confidantes would have had prior knowledge of his exact
intentions, although a senior Cabinet intelligence official
told the Embassy just a day earlier that Ozawa "would be gone
by the end of the week." The media have yet to point out the
irony that Ozawa, who was so critical of former Prime
Ministers Shinzo Abe and Yasuo Fukuda for resigning
unexpectedly, chose to exit so dramatically himself.


9. (C) The latest Yomiuri poll may have been the final stray
for Ozawa, DPJ Lower House member Akihisa Nagashima told the
Embassy May 11. Public support for Prime Minister Taro Aso
and the LDP has continued on a steady upward trajectory since
Okubo's arrest, even as support for Ozawa and the DPJ has
declined. Initial assessments from Embassy contacts
attributed the reversal as much to disenchantment with Ozawa
as to any sort of new-found popularity for Aso. Recently,
however, as Aso and the ruling coalition have exploited the
openings provided by Ozawa's vulnerability, the polls have
reflected wider appreciation for Aso's leadership and
policies. The latest Yomiuri poll, published on the same day
that Ozawa announced his resignation, shows the cabinet
support rate nearing 30 percent, with the non-support rate
below 60 percent for the first time since last year. Over 70
percent of respondents, including 56 percent of his own DPJ
supporters, indicated they were "not convinced" Ozawa should
remain in his leadership position. The LDP scored just three
points below the DPJ on the question of which party
respondents plan to vote for in the next Lower House
election. Two other polls that came out shortly after
Ozawa's announcement showed a continuation of the same trend,
information that Ozawa would almost certainly have had access
to prior to announcing his decision. Ultimately, Embassy
contacts say, he was swayed by the realization that support
for the party would not recover in time for the election and
that the party could not win with him as President.


10. (C) Sports dailies, a source of "news" for much of the
nation, have been predicting Ozawa's downfall for the past
several weeks, with headlines like the one in the May 7 Yukan
Fuji blaring, "Anti-Ozawa Mood in the DPJ About to Explode."
Until now, however, most Embassy DPJ contacts seemed resigned
to support Ozawa for the long haul, despite concerns over the
possible negative impact on the party so close to an
election. That said, concern has been growing recently over
Ozawa's failure to address the Nishimatsu issue directly, and
the sagging polls would have provided concrete proof that his
conduct could hurt the party's electoral prospects. A May 6
opinion piece in the Mainichi by former DPJ President Seiji
Maehara may have given further impetus to Ozawa to step down
earlier rather than later, according to some Embassy contacts
and media sources. The outspoken Maehara warned Ozawa he
risked "falling out of line with the public" if he did not
deal with his responsibility over the Nishimatsu scandal.
Questioning the current management of the party, Maehara
noted that the DPJ was "at a juncture where we have to be in
crisis-management mode and execute risk management for the
party." He worried that independents, who make up over 40
percent of the electorate, may have "lost their enthusiasm"
for the DPJ, even if core supporters remained behind the
party. Maehara cautioned that Aso was "closely watching"
what was going on inside the DPJ in hopes of "catching the
DPJ by surprise." Ozawa cited "party unity" as the primary
reason for stepping down.
ZUMWALT