ALBANIA: First Deaths Due to H1N1

UNCLAS TIRANA 000793

SENSITIVE

SIPDIS

STATE FOR EUR/SCE
STATE FOR OES/IHB

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: SOCI KFLU AL
SUBJECT: ALBANIA: First Deaths Due to H1N1


1. (SBU) Summary : Albania announced its firstH1N1 death of an
otherwise "healthy" patient on December 13, bringing the total to
four deaths in the past three weeks. Incidence rates for
respiratory illness overall have hit ten year highs but have fallen
short of epidemic status and have stabilized recently. The
incidence rate of H1N1 in statistical samples of those exhibiting
flu-like symptoms has grown from ten to fourteen percent. The GOA
has maintained an active surveillance and public information program
and the first shipment of the H1N1 vaccines is expected to arrive
December 18th. End Summary.

Fourth H1N1 Deaths in Three Weeks
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2. (U) Media reports that December 13th the first victim who did not
have pre-existing serious health conditions died from complications
from H1N1. The day before, Ministry of Health officials confirmed
two additional deaths attributable to H1N1, a 47 year old woman and
a 53 year old man. Both patients had extensive pre-existing health
problems and were receiving specialized care for H1N1 prior to their
death. Several other patients are said to be in critical care who
are positive for H1N1. Two weeks prior, Albania registered its
first death attributable to H1N1, a 57 year old male patient who was
suffering from prostate cancer and heart disease. While the
majority of overall H1N1 cases have been in the Tirana area, the
newest fatalities are from Vlora (southern Albania) and Shokdra
(northern Albania). Statistical sampling efforts to date have
focused mainly on Tirana but the Ministry of Health is considering
taking more samples from those experiencing flu-like symptoms
outside of Tirana.
Number of H1N1 Cases Growing Daily
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3. (U) Since July 2009 there have been 310 confirmed cases of H1N1
in Albania with the average age of infection being 23 years. Almost
all have exhibited only mild to moderate clinical symptoms.
Patients are regularly being treated with Tamiflu and the majority
of cases continue to be centered around Tirana. While previous
sampling of those admitted with flu-like symptoms showed an H1N1
incidence rate of 10 percent, the most recent statistics show that
the H1N1 incidence rate has jumped to 14 percent.
Already a Record Flu Season but No Epidemic
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4. (U) Before November the incidence rate for all respiratory
infections was similar to seasonal patterns, but during November
there was a large upswing, just falling short of epidemic status.
December has shown that trend stabilizing and decreasing. Infection
rates (detected) continue to be the highest of the past ten years.
While a peak in respiratory infections is expected in winter the
peak historically has come January or later. Ministry of Health
officials still expect another upswing after January.
Emptying Schools and Filling Waiting Rooms
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5. (U) Local hospitals have been feeling the burden of the spike in
flu cases with over 60 people being seen daily at Mother Teresa
Hospital, the local hospital for pediatrics and internal medicine.
Documented H1N1 cases are being transferred to Tirana for
specialized care. In schools, local media is reporting an
absenteeism rate of 10-15 percent of children due to flu like
symptoms and the government has issued guidance consistent with
international guidelines about how to prevent the seasonal flu as
well as H1N1. Also, recently hung signage at the airport warns
travelers of the symptoms of the flu. The H1N1 vaccine is expected
to arrive December 18th and while the GOA will focus on at-risk
groups it will also reportedly be available for all that wish to pay
to be vaccinated.

6. (SBU) Comment: While the rising level of fatalities is disturbing
and makes headlines, the overall trend for respiratory illness
appears to be stabilizing. However, it will take a much larger
decrease to return to seasonal norms. More troubling is the
increase in the H1N1 incidence rate, which appears to be becoming
more prevalent among flu patients according to Ministry of Health
sampling. The GOA has been supplying information for several months
on how to avoid all forms of flu, has an active taskforce, and has
been issuing frequent updates on H1N1. However, public health
resources are strained normally and a further spike, which often
occurs in January, will certainly overtax hospital resources. End
Comment