WHAT HAPPENED TO G-99?

C O N F I D E N T I A L TIRANA 000537

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EUR/SCE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/05/2019
TAGS: PGOV KDEM PREL AL
SUBJECT: WHAT HAPPENED TO G-99?

REF: A) 08 TIRANA 774 B) TIRANA 160

Classified By: AMBASSADOR JOHN L. WITHERS II FOR REASONS 1.4 (b) AND (d
).

1.(C) Despite all the hype surrounding Erion Veliaj's G-99
political party (reftels),G-99 fell flat on Election Day.
G-99 failed to win a single seat in parliament and in fact
won fewer than 13,000 votes out of over 1.5 million cast.
Veliaj, however, remained upbeat in a recent meeting with
Poloff; although he said it was "incredulous" that so many
Albanians would vote for PM Sali Berisha. Veliaj also
refused to criticize SP Leader Edi Rama and the SP campaign
strategy. He blamed several factors for his loss and, while
he genuinely appeared down, he does not count himself out of
the game, noting that Abraham Lincoln lost 16 elections
before becoming President.


2. (C) As for lessons learned, Veliaj said he may have
spread his campaign and resources too thin. Acknowledging
that he campaigned in every region in Albania, he said this
was likely a wrong move and he should have concentrated on a
few select regions. Veliaj also said he may have misread
Albania's youth and their impact on elections; he said that
many young people still live at home and their parents have
considerable sway over their lives, and therefore their
votes. He also claimed that Erion Brace, an SP candidate in
Berat, "sabotaged" many of his votes by colluding with
Electoral Commissioners to count G-99 votes as SP votes.
Veliaj said Berat was one of the G-99,s strongest regions,
but he said Brace urged locals not to vote for G-99 and even
actively campaigned against Veliaj. He said it was a mistake
to not raise this issue with Rama earlier. He added that
thousands of ballots for G-99 were deemed ineligible for
various reasons and while he did have observers during the
counting, he did not have enough to watch all the tables
simultaneously.


3. (C) Comment: The urbane Veliaj, not yet 30, was
optimistically predicting to win 3-5 seats throughout the
campaign and had a solid organization tactically but his
message failed to resonate with voters. One SP strategist
called G-99 a "failure of vision" and repeated the oft heard
mantra of "what is this 'G-99'?" He clearly made some wrong
decisions and overestimated the weight of his message.
Veliaj though does seem to have learned many valuable lessons
from the campaign, but demurred when asked about future
plans. He retains a small army of devoted volunteers, many
of whom he recently took to Croatia for a weekend retreat and
pep rally. Many observers think that when he joined the SP
coalition, his odds of winning a seat were reduced to zero
since he began to be seen as an opportunist, rather than
someone who wanted to promote real change. He also lost the
individuality his party had had with this decision.
Furthermore, the new Electoral Code did not help his cause
either as it tends to favor larger parties. Despite this
setback, Veliaj remains very well connected and we likely
have not heard the last from him.
WITHERS