ELECTION UPDATE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 TIRANA 000448

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SUBJECT: ELECTION UPDATE

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1. (SBU) SUMMARY: On July 3, the Central Election Commission (CEC)
announced preliminary election results, giving Sali Berisha's
Democratic Party coalition a 71-65 lead over the Socialist Party
coalition in terms of seats won. The SP immediately cried foul,
saying the CEC has no right to discuss preliminary results (whether
or not the statement was illegal remains a matter of debate in legal
circles). The CEC is still deliberating over the fate of a number
of "irregular" ballot boxes from Fier district, although a decision
on the boxes is expected on Tuesday. At least 15 electoral
"challenges" have been filed by various small parties so far, with
none filed by any of the three largest parties (LSI, DP and SP),
although it is almost certain that some challenges will be filed
later. On July 4, former PM and Chairman of the Movement for
Socialist Integration (LSI) Party Ilir Meta announced his decision
to enter into a coalition with the DP, theoretically giving Sali
Berisha the support of four more MPs when Parliament convenes in
September. But Meta's announcement has touched off much grumbling
within the ranks of LSI, and given the fluid nature of

Albanian politics, Meta's announcement should be taken with several
boxes of salt. END SUMMARY.
Election Results Still Pending
--------------


2. (SBU) The CEC has not yet announced the final results of the
June 28 election, known as the "tabulation of results". And even
when that announcement does come, likely sometime on Tuesday, it
will only open the door to a large number of expected challenges to
the results, meaning truly final results will only come sometime
near the end of July, when all challenges and appeals have been
heard. The CEC did announce "preliminary results" on July 3, an
announcement that touched off a firestorm of criticism from the SP,
which claimed that the CEC has no legal right to announce even
preliminary results prior to the completion of the counting of all
votes (whether or not the CEC statement truly was illegal remains a
matter of debate).


3. (SBU) The CEC has at least six disputed boxes left to count from
Fier district. According to CEC, SP and DP sources, the CEC must
first tabulate the results from Fier, minus the votes contained
inside the six "irregular boxes," at which point the SP will
challenge the tabulation and force the CEC to make a decision on
whether or not to open and count the disputed boxes. Although the
SP claims that the DP is trying to block consideration of the
disputed boxes, one DP source told PolOff that the DP would have no
grounds to block the counting of the six boxes. If the CEC
determines that the votes left in the six boxes are not enough to
change the outcome of the election in Fier, it can deny the request
to open the boxes. But because the six boxes contain a large number
of votes, it seems unlikely that the CEC would make this
determination. Mayor of Tirana and SP leader Edi Rama told OSCE
Ambassador on July 5 that the SP would boycott the CEC and any
parliamentary assembly if the Fier boxes are not counted before the
challenges process begins, although at a July 6 press conference,
Rama's boycott threat was more vague, and seemed to imply the SP
would walk out only in the event the CEC decides not to count the
boxes at all.


4. (SBU) According to the CEC, the Fier boxes will likely be opened
and counted only on Tuesday, following an expected SP challenge to
the "tabulation of results", a process which should end sometime on
Monday or Tuesday. Following a decision on the Fier boxes, the CEC
will begin hearing electoral challenges. As of July 6, at least 15
challenges have been filed by smaller parties, with no challenges
filed (yet) by the SP, DP or LSI.

LSI, Berisha Announce Coalition
--------------


5. (SBU) In a press conference on July 4, LSI leader Ilir Meta
announced his intention to accept Sali Berisha's invitation to Meta
to join in a coalition with Berisha's DP when Parliament convenes in
September. Adding LSI's four votes to the DP's 70 or 71 (depending
on the CEC final vote tabulation) would make at least 74/75 votes in
favor of Berisha as PM (71 votes are needed to approve the PM).
Meta described the decision to join forces with the PD as "the most
difficult decision" of his political career, and said he remains a
socialist, but added that he would join forces with Berisha "for the
sake of Albanian integration". In a separate interview with VOA,
Meta said he had turned down an offer to enter into a coalition with
SP Leader Edi Rama, alleging that the SP had bought the votes of
other MPs in the Democratic Party in order to form a coalition -
something Meta claimed he could not be a part of.


6. (SBU) COMMENT: Meta's announcement of an intended coalition with
Berisha caught many observers off guard, most of whom had assumed
that the lifelong socialist would never cut a deal with Berisha.
Numerous sources told the Embassy that Meta's decision has touched

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off a firestorm of grumbling and criticism within LSI, and an LSI
official announced that the party will hold a national party
conference on July 7 to discuss the deal with Berisha. Most
observers believe that Meta will use the conference to convince or
force the rest of his party leadership to go along with his
coalition deal, although it remains to be seen how the party rank
and file react. Although Meta claimed that he was entering a
coalition with Berisha for the sake of the country, LSI insiders
readily admit that Meta has little choice - after a dismal showing
in the elections, the party must either make a deal to get it back
into power, or risk extinction as a party. Given the fluid nature
of Albanian politics, Meta's announcement should be seen as only the
first shot in what promises to be a protracted war of deal making
and breaking between now and the opening of the new parliament in
September.

WITHERS