LOOKING TO THE ENDGAME ON ID CARDS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TIRANA 000352

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/08/2019
TAGS: KDEM PREL PGOV PHUM AL
SUBJECT: LOOKING TO THE ENDGAME ON ID CARDS

Classified By: Ambassador John L. Withers, reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (SBU) SUMMARY: With nineteen days left until the
elections, the ID card process has entered the home stretch.
The Interior Ministry has set June 15 as the last day to
apply for an ID card - after that date ID card centers will
be open for distribution of cards only. With nearly 1.3
million IDs applied for, attention now shifts to
distribution, and the concern that ID card offices will be
unable to meet a last-minute rush to pick up ID cards from
the application/distribution centers. As of June 8, although
1,291,361 people have applied for cards, only 826,119 cards
are in the hands of voters, meaning a backlog of 465,000
cards yet to be distributed in the remaining days before the
elections. At a briefing for the diplomatic corps on June 5,
ODIHR analysts downplayed speculation as to the number of
passport-less voters who still need ID cards. According to
ODIHR, there has never been a reliable figure for just how
many voters in Albania lack passports, making it nearly
impossible to determine how many passport-less voters remain
in need of an ID card. Although the SP continues to claim
that the ID card process is being manipulated against the SP,
ODIHR has seen no credible evidence to back this claim.
Nevertheless, the SP belief that it is being disadvantaged
could lead some in the party (including Chairman Rama) to
resort to radical options. END SUMMARY.

First, the Numbers
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2. (SBU) According to ID card producer Aleat, as of June 8:

- 1,291,361 voters have applied for ID cards

- 1,168,354 cards have been produced

- 826,119 cards have been picked up by voters

Looking at the trend over the past two weeks shows a slow
decline in the number of applicants each day, along with a
sharp increase in the number of cards picked up each day,
with June 8 setting a new record of 27,396 cards distributed
to voters. Nevertheless, the difference between the number
of cards applied for and those in the hands of voters is
dauntingly large - 465,000 as of June 8. However, this
backlog of ID cards applied for but not yet delivered to
voters is also declining, having peaked on May 24 at just
over 530,000.

Focus Now Moves to Distribution
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3. (SBU) The real question now is whether card producer
Aleat can distribute cards to all voters who need them prior
to the elections. Despite the declining backlog of cards yet
to be distributed, Aleat will need to distribute nearly
24,000 cards per day, every day, until the election to
eliminate the current 465,000 backlog. Although Aleat has
the capacity to distribute that many cards, it can only do so
if voters turn up in large numbers to collect their cards.
However, it is unknown as to how many of the cards waiting to
be picked up belong to voters without passports. The MOI
decision to cutoff applications on June 15 and convert all
application workstations to distribution stations will do
much to boost distribution capacity - but only if voters come
in to pick up their IDs.

SP Crying Foul
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4. (SBU) The SP continues to insist that the ID card process
is rigged against it - with one SP representative asserting
to PolOff that "of all of the voters yet to receive IDs,
two-thirds are SP supporters." Yet the SP has been unable so
far to produce credible evidence of any widespread GOA or DP
plan or effort to deny ID cards to SP supporters. Embassy
and ODIHR observers have seen no evidence of any widespread
manipulation, although isolated cases have been seen. ODIHR
has documented two cases of DP interference in the ID card
process at the local level - both cases involving DP
activists "facilitating" the ID application process for DP
supporters in ways that break or severely bend the law.


5. (C) Certainly the DP has made a strong effort to get IDs
into the hands of its supporters. As the ID card process was

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getting off the ground in January of 2009, the GOA forced
state employees to apply for ID cards by deducting the 1200
lek fee for the cards from civil servants' paychecks. One
human resources manager from a pro-DP company told Post in
January that the company paid for IDs for each of its
employees. In recent weeks, Post and ODIHR have received
multiple reports that the DP, and to a lesser extent the SP,
are buying IDs for supporters and transporting supporters to
ID application centers.

Passport-less Voters - Chasing a Ghost?
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6. (C) At a July 5 briefing for the diplomatic corps, ODIHR
political analysts downplayed speculation over the number of
passport-less voters still without IDs, claiming that the
real number will likely never be known. ODIHR said it has no
faith in either GOA, SP or other estimates as to the number
of passport-less voters in the country. GOA estimates range
from 500,000-729,000, while the SP has consistently claimed
that there are as many as one million Albanians without
passports. Previous Interior Ministry estimates were that
approximately half of all ID card applicants were
non-passport holders.


7. (C) It is important to focus less on how many
passport-less voters still lack IDs and to look more at why
they still lack them and what, if anything is preventing
voters from applying. It is certain that there will be
potentially large numbers of voters on election day who lack
both a passport and ID card, and the SP will certainly point
to these people as "disenfranchised SP voters." Despite some
administrative and technical glitches, ODIHR has not
uncovered as of yet any credible evidence of GOA, DP or other
efforts to deny ID cards to SP supporters. Even so, the SP's
conviction that the ID card process is tilted against it has
led some in the party - notably SP Chairman Edi Rama - to
threaten radical countermeasures, including an electoral
boycott. (NOTE: Embassy has advised Rama and other SP
leaders that such actions would be self-defeating and be
viewed unsympathetically by the USG and EU governments. END
NOTE).

GOA Efforts Too Little, Too Late, or Just in Time?
-------------- --------------


8. (C) COMMENT: The endgame on IDs will be a race to the
wire. Certainly the GOA started the ID process far too late,
ensuring that the process would become an at-times chaotic
scramble that is more cumbersome and confusing than
necessary. The GOA's initial goal of providing 3.1 million
IDs by election day was quickly scaled back to the much more
modest goal of providing cards to all passport-less voters.
Nevertheless, the process seems to be on track to be able to
provide ID cards for all who want them - provided the GOA and
Aleat can pull out all the stops in an effort to distribute
cards over the next nineteen days.



WITHERS