ALBANIAN PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS, SIX MONTHS OUT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TIRANA 000002

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/11/2018
TAGS: KDEM PGOV PREL AL
SUBJECT: ALBANIAN PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS, SIX MONTHS OUT

Classified By: CDA Stephen A. Cristina, reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) SUMMARY: The passage of the Electoral Code on
December 29 cleared the last major legislative hurdle
necessary for the 2009 parliamentary elections, which will
take place at the end of June. With the Electoral Code out
of the way, attention will increasingly focus on the election
campaign and dealmaking between the various political
parties. Although it is still too early to predict a winner,
the campaign is likely to focus around several key issues:
the outcome of the Gerdec, Fazlic and Durres-Kukes
investigations; the "damaged brand" of Sali Berisha's
Democratic Party; the implementation of the national ID and
passport project; and whether the two main parties on the
left can reach a coalition deal that will unify the
opposition. END SUMMARY.

Ruling Democratic Party Faces Uphill Battle for Re-election
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2. (C) Prime Minister Sali Berisha's Democratic Party (DP)
faces a difficult political climate as it moves towards the
elections. A widely leaked internal DP poll shows the DP
trailing the opposition Socialist Party (SP) badly in the
Tirana-Durres region - a region that will send 33 out of 140
MPs to the next parliament. According to the poll, the SP
leads in the Tirana-Durres region with 45 percent, with the
DP at 29 percent, and two other left-wing parties at 10
percent each. Taken together, the SP and its potential
coalition partners lead the DP 65-29 percent in this crucial
region.


3. (C) The DP, which swept to power in 2005 on an
anti-corruption platform, has been badly tarnished by an
overall (but in many ways false) public perception that GOA
anti-corruption efforts have largely failed. Recent scandals
alleging corruption on the part of Berisha's children or
members of his inner circle have also badly damaged the DP
brand heading into the election, and diminish whatever value
Berisha gets from his reputation as being personally clean.
Former Foreign Minister and SP strategist and MP Kastriot
Islami told PolOff that conditions for the DP are so bad that
there is "no way" the DP can win in June without resorting to
fraud. (NOTE: Islami served as the SP's "fixer" for the 2005
parliamentary elections and knows a thing or two about vote
fraud himself).

Gerdec, Durres-Kukes and Fazlic, Oh My!
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4. (C) The ongoing investigations into the Gerdec tragedy
and money laundering allegations against Bosnian businessman
Damir Fazlic, as well as Foreign Minister Basha's upcoming
trial on abuse of power charges all feed into the public
perception that the Berisha government is corrupt. Both the
Gerdec and Fazlic investigations threaten to reveal
embarrassing and possibly illegal business deals involving
Berisha's children. Serious allegations against Berisha's
children will be politically devastating for the PD and for
Berisha personally.

National ID Program On Track - For Now
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5. (SBU) The new Electoral Code mandates that only voters
able to show the new ID card or passport will be allowed to
vote. Not a single ID card or passport has been produced
yet, but production is expected to start in late January,
2009 (only about three weeks behind schedule). But
production of the million-plus IDs and passports required for
voters faces numerous high hurdles, and one serious glitch
between now and June could throw the entire election into
technical chaos. (NOTE: The Albanian American Enterprise is
a partner with the French firm that won the contract for
issuing the IDs/Passports. END NOTE) Perhaps most daunting
is the fact that the vast majority of registered voters have
not yet registered for the National Registry - a necessary
first step to receive an ID card or passport.

A Unified Left?
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6. (C) Despite its badly tarnished image, the Democratic
Party remains far more united than the fractious left, which
is divided between the Socialist Party under Tirana Mayor Edi
Rama and Ilir Meta's Movement for Socialist Integration

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(LSI). Although the SP and LSI have made efforts lately to
play nice, Meta and Rama remain bitter rivals, and a
pre-election coalition between the two parties seems, at
least at this point, unlikely. However, SP strategist and MP
Kastriot Islami told PolOff on December 29 that whether SP
and LSI run together or separately won't matter much in terms
of seats in the next parliament, with Islami speculating that
a combined left ticket would gain at most two more seats than
a split LSI-SP ticket. The bigger worry for the left is that
Meta, in his zeal to replace Rama as the leader of the SP,
will somehow sabotage SP efforts in hopes that a defeated SP
electorate will turn to the former Prime Minister Meta.

COMMENT
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7. (C) Even with all of the Democratic Party's troubles -
fallout from the Gerdec explosion; corruption allegations;
and a generally ineffective government, the Berisha
government can and will take credit for bringing Albania into
NATO and for a period of relative stability and strong
economic growth. Sali Berisha also remains Albania's
sharpest and at times most ruthless political strategist, and
his opponents on both the left and the right underestimate
him at their own peril. Kastriot Islami told PolOff that in
even a best case scenario, the SP can expect to win at most a
ten seat majority in the next parliament, meaning that a
close, and hard-fought election campaign can be expected to
unfold between now and June.

CRISTINA