ALBANIA ON THE EVE OF NATO ACCESSION

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TIRANA 000172

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EUR/SCE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/18/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM AL
SUBJECT: ALBANIA ON THE EVE OF NATO ACCESSION

Classified By: AMBASSADOR JOHN L. WITHERS II FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D
).


1. (C) Summary: Albania will reach the April 3-4 Strasbourg
summit less with a purposeful stride than with a pronounced
limp. Widespread economic and political reforms that marked
2007 slowed to a crawl after Albania received its NATO
invitation in April 2008. The GOA at the highest levels is
plagued by scandal, including a major abuse of office case
against the former Defense Minister for his alleged role in
the Gerdec munitions explosion that killed 26 people.
Allegations of corruption have also lapped perilously close
to the Prime Minister's family. More importantly, the GOA
has tarnished its commitment to democratic principles through
heavy-handed assaults on the media, the judiciary, and other
critics. Only a last minute ruling by the much maligned
Constitutional Court saved the GOA from implementing a harsh
anti-judicial law declared unconstitutional by European,
American, and local legal experts. Preparations for the
important June 28 elections -- declared a benchmark for
maturity by NATO and EU nations -- are already falling well
behind schedule, raising the specter of yet another flawed,
even manipulated, vote. Given the likelihood of further GOA
attacks on independent democratic institutions after
Strasbourg and the increasing difficulties with election
preparations, we urge that firm markers on adherence to the
rule of law and on free and fair elections be incorporated
into our warmer messages on NATO membership in Strasbourg.
End summary.

A RELIABLE INTERNATIONAL PARTNER
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2. (C) Albania rightfully shall receive full membership in
the NATO alliance in three weeks, based on an initial record
of domestic reform and a sophisticated foreign policy which
is in full accord with our goal of regional stability in the
Balkans. This steadfast U.S. ally has provided troop support
in Iraq and Afghanistan, eliminated its chemical weapons
stores in accordance with the Nunn-Lugar Act, and played an
extremely constructive role in moderating radical tendencies
among Albanian ethnic groups in neighboring states. In
addition, its promotion of free market principles has, until
the recent global economic slowdown, promoted some of the
most rapid growth in the region. Albania has also served as
a faithful partner of U.S. objectives in such international
organizations as the IAEA and the OIC. All of these
developments qualify Albania for full NATO membership.
...WITH A HOUSE NOT IN ORDER
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3. (C) However, as of April 2008, when Albania received its
NATO invitation in Bucharest, the country has taken a decided
turn for the worse. Albania will enter the Alliance with the
bright promises of the 2007 reform year distinctly dimmed.
The momentum towards finalizing key elements of a
free-market, democratic state based on the rule of law, have
slowed to a trickle. Lead by PM Berisha and Speaker of
Parliament Josefina Topalli, the Prosecutor's office has come
under severe attack. These tendencies came to a head when
the government rammed the Lustration Law through parliament
by a simple majority, straight party line vote. This law was
purportedly designed to weed ex-Communists from sensitive
government positions, but in fact it clearly targeted judges,
prosecutors, and attorneys engaged in investigations and
cases involving high level GOA officials on charges ranging
from abuse of power to negligent homicide. The EU, COE,
Helsinki Commission, OSCE, and USG all conveyed their strong
objections to this clearly constitutionally flawed law in the
strongest possible terms. The Secretary's timely
intervention was key in preventing the law from being
implemented as was the ruling by the much maligned
Constitutional Court that postponed putting the law into
effect until a thorough review of its provisions could be
conducted. Only the actions of the international community
and the Court saved the GOA from severely damaging its
commitment to democratic principles and left its reputation
for adherence to the rule of law at least partially intact.
PM BERISHA STILL REACTING TO GERDEC
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4. (C) The proximate cause of the GOA's surprising turn was a
series of investigations into the PM's inner circle of
government. The current FM has been indicted for abuse of
office for his alleged role in mismanaging a major road
contract while serving as Transportation Minister. The
Minister of Culture was fired in disgrace after being caught
on tape soliciting sexual favors from a young woman in
exchange for a job offer. Most potentially sensitive,

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however, is the indictment of former Defense Minister Fatmir
Mediu for his purported role in a pirated munitions factory
in the Tirana suburb of Gerdec which exploded one year ago,
taking 26 lives and wounding 300 more. Dubbed the "Hurricane
Katrina" of Albania, the Gerdec explosion has become the
lightning rod for GOA corruption, callousness, and
incompetence. The efforts to which the PM went to quash
investigations into this episode have raised questions about
whether there is truth to existing circumstantial evidence,
not to mention widespread conventional belief, that members
of his own family, including his son, are implicated in the
tragedy. With the election looming in June 2009, the PM, who
has already declared former Defense Minister Mediu innocent
in advance of a trial, has raised questions about his motives
in the affair. Compounding these actions have been GOA
efforts to muzzle important media critics, including closing
the printing office of the anti-GOA Tema newspaper in
violation of a court order and threatening to displace the
equally critical Top Channel TV station from its current
location.
ELECTIONS PREPARATIONS FAR BEHIND SCHEDULE
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5. (C) Beyond these problems, Albania faces potentially
damaging troubles with its election. According to the new
electoral code, in order to vote a citizen must present a
valid passport or a voter ID card. The plans for issuing
voter ID cards have been scaled back considerably due to poor
planning and implementation and have been delayed three times
already this year. At this point, less than 100 days before
the election, the GOA has issued less than 100,000 IDs to the
approximately 750,000 - 1,000,000 voters who do not have
passports. GOA officials maintain that all voters without
passports will receive voter ID cards. However with each
passing day, that goal becomes harder to reach. Many rural
Albanians cannot afford the EUR 10 fee nor can they afford
the transport costs and time required to apply. In the event
any voters are denied the right to vote because they lack
IDs, the losing side will likely cry fraud. Concerns are
also mounting about the potential for fraud at counting
centers, as plans for installing video cameras at counting
centers (as required by the new electoral code) lag behind.
LITTLE TO CHEER ON THE ECONOMY, EITHER
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6. (C) An additional pressure is the gradual erosion of the
Albanian economy. Estimates call for a significant drop in
GDP this year although it could remain in positive territory.
Remittances from abroad, which constitute approximately 14
per cent of GDP, have slowed dramatically. Meanwhile the GOA
is seeking a loan from commercial banks to finance its budget
deficit to, among other things, provide liquidity and pay for
major road construction in this election year. Extravagant
campaign promises to raise salaries and social benefits
should suffer as a result of the deficit, but it is expected
that the PM will spend as much as necessary with no regard
for the long term economic health of Albania in order to win
re-election in June.
TWO CRITICAL MESSAGES
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7. (C) Comment: Albania's awful 2008 takes some of the sheen
off what will still be a triumphal moment in Strasbourg. The
GOA's unfortunate political decisions, however, have raised
eyebrows among some of Albania's closest friends and are
focusing greater scrutiny than might otherwise be expected on
its actions in the coming months. Accordingly, first and
foremost, we must firmly caution the GOA, and particularly PM
Berisha, that there be no further backward steps against
Albania's independent institutions subsequent to achieving
full NATO membership. The Secretary's message to the PM in
February calling for a strict adherence to the rule of law
and constitutional principles still completely applies.
Moreover, we must convey a clear message that free and fair
elections which meet the standards expected of a full NATO
ally are imperative. In all of our exchanges with senior GOA
leaders, including at Strasbourg, we urge that these two
critical points be raised on every possible occasion.
WITHERS