THE KINGMAKER FOR THE JUNE ELECTIONS?

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TIRANA 000164

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EUR/SCE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/10/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM AL
SUBJECT: THE KINGMAKER FOR THE JUNE ELECTIONS?

Classified By: AMBASSADOR JOHN WITHERS FOR REASONS 1.4 (b) AND (d).


1. (C) Summary: As the June Parliamentary elections
approach, the Socialist Movement for Integration (LSI)
clearly sees itself as the kingmaker in an election where
neither of the two leading parties appear likely to win an
outright victory. LSI hopes to win 15 seats and expects the
SP and DP to garner approximately 57 or 58 each, leaving LSI
to decide who will be the next PM. However, according to one
internal SP poll done on a regional basis, LSI will be lucky
to gather five out of 140 seats in the upcoming parliament.
It is unclear at this point which side LSI would support to
form a governing coalition if it were able to garner enough
votes to play the decisive role. Some SP strategists have
said Meta is looking to cast a deal with the DP after the
elections, partly due to his extreme distaste for SP leader
Edi Rama. Meta, for his part, has been largely silent on any
post election plans, but most outside observers think it
highly unlikely Meta would team-up with the DP to form a
governing coalition. End Summary.


2. (C) The Socialist Movement for Integration (LSI),lead by
its chairman Ilir Meta, split from the Socialist-led left
wing coalition in March 2008 as a result of rising tensions
between Meta and SP leader Edi Rama regarding Meta's role on
the left. The two remain bitter rivals, and on November 10,
2008, Meta and ten others staged a hunger strike to protest
changes in the new Electoral Code that the SP and the
Democratic Party had agreed on to the disadvantage of Meta,s
LSI. The poorly planned strike failed after nine days and
the Electoral Code was passed by a vote of 113-1. Meta
labeled the passage a "consensual crime" and criticized both
PM Berisha and SP leader Rama for colluding to pass an
antidemocratic law.

The King(maker) and I
--------------


3. (C) Meta emerged from the hunger strike weaker than he was
before, but he now believes he will play the role of
kingmaker in the June elections, since neither the DP nor the
SP appear able to win an outright majority of 71 or more
seats in the Parliament. On March 5, Meta told the
Ambassador that he expects the SP and DP to pick up no more
than 57 or 58 seats each, while LSI should win at least 15 or
16 seats, with the remainder going to some of the even
smaller parties. He said he is "very comfortable" with LSI's
present position and claimed that some DP supporters,
disillusioned with Berisha, are joining LSI.


4. (C) Meta did not elucidate much of a strategy for
victory, but he said that LSI has contracted with two U.S.
firms to help plan election strategy and promote awareness
about flaws in the electoral system. His main strategy seems
to be counting on discontent with both the major parties to
propel LSI to the kingmaker role. The major issues for LSI
are poverty and unemployment, and he plans to hit both the DP
and Rama, not the SP as a whole, hard on these issues once
the campaign formally begins in late May, in hopes of driving
a wedge between Edi Rama and mainstream SP voters. After the
elections, he said he hopes to find common ground with the
SP, but, for good measure, added that Rama
appears only concerned about his relationship with Berisha.
He labeled Rama as "more dangerous" than Berisha when it
comes to elections and seemed to blame Rama everything he
sees wrong with the new electoral code.

But the Polls Beg to Differ. . .
--------------


5. (C) Early polling, however, tells a much different story.
Despite Meta's claim that LSI is a "national" party, two
national polls showed LSI at five and 3 percent,
respectively. According to one internal Socialist Party poll
done on a regional basis, LSI will be lucky to gather five
out of 140 seats in the upcoming parliament. According to
this SP poll, the SP and its coalition partners might be able
to eke out a slim majority in the new parliament even without
LSI.


6. (C) In LSI's view, the SP and DP do not have the will to
hold free and fair elections. Meta said only one or two
incidents on Election Day could make the entire elections a
failure. This is particularly bad, he said, in light of
the coming accession to NATO in April and future dreams of
entering the EU. He said he has many doubts about meeting
international standards as the preparations are very far
behind. If these elections fail, he said, it will cost
Albania for many years to come, especially with respect to EU
membership.

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7. (C) Comment: LSI has piles of money, as evidenced by its
decision to retain Stan Greenberg and Dutko Worldwide as
campaign advisors, and the party has dispatched paid
operatives around the country to run its local campaign
offices. Yet it remains to be seen whether or not LSI will
have the ability to garner enough votes to be the kingmaker.
Other contacts have said that LSI will likely win only 6-7
seats at most. However, LSI may be able to pull off this
role if it focuses its efforts intensely in a few select
places, as it appears it is doing. If LSI does manage to win
a significant amount of seats, then the question looms large
about which side it will support to create a majority. His
bitter rivalry with Rama is well known, and some in the SP
fear that Meta may somehow sabotage Rama's chances of victory
in order to become the SP's new flag bearer. We have also
heard from SP strategists that Meta may be looking to cast a
deal with the DP after the elections. However it is not
clear how this would impact his standing with the SP rank and
file or even among Meta's own followers in LSI, who see any
deal that would keep PM Berisha in power as anathema. For
his part, Meta has been silent on the issue. Twice the PM,
Meta is no stranger to the game, but while he may think he is
in a good spot now, it will require significant political
shrewdness to emerge a winner in June.
WITHERS