SOCIALIST PARTY TO CALL FOR POSTPONEMENT OF

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TIRANA 000160

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EUR/SCE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/09/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM AL
SUBJECT: SOCIALIST PARTY TO CALL FOR POSTPONEMENT OF
ELECTIONS?

Classified By: POL/ECON CHIEF PAUL POLETES FOR REASONS 1.4 (b) AND (d).


1. (C) Summary: As the June 28 Parliamentary elections
approach, early polling gives the opposition Socialist Party
(SP) a slight lead over the ruling Democratic Party.
Nevertheless, the SP has serious concerns about the GOA's
ability to issue voter ID cards to the voters who require
them. Citing numerous missed deadlines with the issuance of
voter IDs, a senior SP strategist told us that the SP will
decide in mid-April whether to ask the GOA to postpone the
elections, boycott them, or go along with a flawed electoral
process. The SP is still hammering out its strategy for
victory, but expects to win 63-65 parliamentary seats, which
means it would have to go into a coalition to garner the 71
seats necessary for victory. While it would seem that the
left should be able to roll to victory against the scandal
ridden Berisha government, divisions on the left,
particularly between Ilir Meta of the Movement for
Integration (LSI) and SP leader Edi Rama, have stymied any
hopes of unification. SP strategists have hinted that Meta
may even be looking to deal with the DP after the elections
in order to cobble together a non-Edi Rama lead government.
While the invective is certainly heating up, the complaints
about the GOA's inability to produce voter ID cards and
accurate voter lists are valid, opening the door to potential
electoral fraud. This is the first we have heard of a
potential postponement or boycotting of the elections from a
senior SP official, something that does not bode well for
these closely watched elections. End summary.

ISN'T THIS THE LEFT'S YEAR?
--------------


2. (C) While it would seem that the left should be able to
roll to an easy victory against the scandal-ridden Berisha
government (Gerdec, one Minister and one former Minister
under indictment and another recently fired from office are
but four of the current scandals),internal divisions
threaten any chances of an outright victory by the left. The
left is divided into two main groups: the larger SP lead by
Tirana Mayor Edi Rama, and the smaller LSI which is lead by
former Socialist PM Ilir Meta. Ever the bitter rivals, no
love is lost between Meta and Rama, and while much has been
made about a possible unification of the two, it does not
appear that LSI and SP will be able to bridge their
differences prior to the election. Instead, Meta's main goal
seems to be to drive a wedge between Edi Rama and the SP rank
and file, while Rama is determined to drive LSI out of
business.

POLLS GIVE SP THE EARLY ADVANTAGE
--------------


3. (C) Early polling shows the SP ahead. A national Zogby
poll released on March 10 showed the SP at 39 percent, the DP
at 34 percent, LSI at 5 percent, and SP coalition partner
G-99 at 2 percent. On March 11, G-99 Chair Erion Veliaj told
PolOffs that internal SP polling done on a regional basis
shows the SP winning 65-70 seats by itself, and coalition
partner G-99 pulling in another 5-6 seats, with other SP
coalition partners garnering another 2-3 seats, enough to
give an SP coalition a slim majority in the parliament.
(NOTE: Regional polling, as opposed to national polls, give a
more accurate view of potential election outcomes in that for
these elections Albania has been divided into 12 electoral
districts. END NOTE).

SO HOW DOES THE SP PLAN TO WIN?
--------------


4. (C) In order to win a majority in the Parliament, and
therefore be able to choose the Prime Minister, a party must
win 71 of 140 seats. According to the most optimistic
scenario for the SP from one of its chief strategists and
MPs, Kastriot Islami, the SP could in a best-case scenario
win 71-73 seats. However, Islami and most other observers
believe that 63-65 seats is more realistic. With just over
two months before the election, the SP is still formulating
its electoral strategy and platform, according to Islami.
For now, Islami said the SP is holding regional roundtables
centered on ten issues including unemployment, corruption,
the economy, health, education, and the environment. Islami
said that the SP is currently spending most of its time and
money fighting political battles about voter ID cards and the
voter registry, rather than focusing on the issues.

PRE-ELECTION BATTLES
--------------


TIRANA 00000160 002 OF 002



5. (C) Voter IDs and the voter registry are the keys to free
and fair elections, according to Islami. The GOA, in his
view, is far, far behind in the issuance of voter ID cards.
The GOA has quietly dropped its promise to issue up to three
million IDs prior to the election, and now says it will focus
on giving ID cards to the approximately 700,000 people who do
not have a passport. (NOTE: According to the new electoral
law, a new biometric ID or valid passport are the only
acceptable forms of ID for the upcoming elections. END
NOTE). The SP says that the number of voters without a
passport is closer to one million, and Islami is concerned
that these voters, more likely to be SP sympathizers
according to Islami, will be disenfranchised by the slow
moving GOA. The GOA has postponed the start of the ID
issuing process three times since January. It also pledged
that by March 1, the ID card process would have begun in all
municipalities with at least 5,000 inhabitants, however only
about ten percent of the 200 municipalities that fit this
criteria have begun issuing IDs. Elderly and/or rural voters
are most at risk of being disenfranchised since they may not
have the time, money, or health to travel, wait in line for
hours, and pay EUR 10 for the ID.


6. (C) The SP sees rural areas as having the highest
propensity for electoral fraud. Fraud in remote, hard to
reach places could turn the election in the DP's favor,
according to Islami, especially since election monitors will
likely be unable to monitor these areas closely. He offered
that rural voters know all too well about the failures of the
Berisha government since they live in such poverty, and
suggested that they would turn out en masse for the SP.

POSTPONE THE ELECTIONS, BOYCOTT THEM, OR WHAT?
-------------- -


7. (C) The SP is so concerned about the potential for
fraudulent or unfair elections, that it may even consider
asking the GOA to postpone the elections. Islami told Poloff
that the SP will monitor GOA progress on election preparation
very closely over the next month to determine what course of
action it should take. According to Islami, the SP has three
options: ask the GOA to postpone the elections (which only
the GOA has the authority to do),not participate at all
(this would render the elections meaningless),or proceed to
participate in elections that will be neither free nor fair,
according to the SP. Any of these choices would bring the
international community down hard on Albania, especially as
it would have entered NATO by this point, according to
Islami. He said the SP has not yet decided what to do, but
will make a decision in mid April about its approach.


8. (C) Comment: The fact that the SP does not have a coherent
electoral strategy at this time is normal given the nature of
Albanian elections, which technically only allow campaigning
to begin 45 days before the election. At this point, all
parties are still working on internal organization issues and
are preparing for internal party elections, which are
expected in April. Despite this, one SP member told us he is
frustrated with the SP's lack of election organization and
Rama's "micromanagement." The SP's concerns about the
failure of the GOA to prepare adequately for the elections
are well grounded, given the repeated delays with the ID
card process. However, Islami's statement that the SP may
consider asking for the elections to be postponed, sit them
out, or allow the old forms of ID to be used for voting is
very concerning and it is the first time we have heard anyone
mention this as a possibility. Any one of these three
options could turn the elections into either a political
farce or technical disaster.
WITHERS