NATIONAL ACTION PARTY BENEFITS FROM VOTER DISAFFECTION IN

UNCLAS TIJUANA 000642


E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV MX
SUBJECT: NATIONAL ACTION PARTY BENEFITS FROM VOTER DISAFFECTION IN
BAJA

REF: 08 TIJUANA 1149


SUMMARY
--------------


1. The ruling National Action Party (PAN) is likely to
dominate July 5 mid-term elections for federal deputies in Baja
California Norte. The opposition in Baja California is
divided. Voters are frustrated with politicians of all parties,
but will manifest their dissatisfaction by staying home on
election day or joining the national movement to nullify their
vote, rather than voting the incumbent party out of office.
Eventually, however, the PAN will need to address voters'
concerns about narco-violence and the economy. END SUMMARY.

IT'S THE PAN'S TO LOSE
--------------


2. Reliable polls are hard to come by, as most are sponsored
by and therefore biased in favor of a particular party's
candidate. However, Jose Ramirez Bilbao, a professor of
politics and law at the Ibero-American University, calculates
the PAN is secure in at least five, or possibly six, of the
state's eight electoral districts. The Institutional
Revolutionary Party (PRI) has a chance of winning in the seventh
district, encompassing the small town of Tecate (previously a
PRI stronghold, though the current mayor hails from the PAN) and
District I, which includes the state's capitol, Mexicali. It
will also challenge the PAN in Tijuana's fourth district, where
a charismatic candidate, Fernando del Monte, from the tiny New
Alliance Party (PANAL) is forcing both the PAN and PRI to
campaign more vigorously and making the outcome in that district
unpredictable.


3. The PAN's strength going into these elections might not be
a surprise in the state which was the first in all of Mexico to
elect a PAN governor in 1989. The state's current governor and
four of its five mayors are from the PAN (and the fifth is a
PRIista in name only),and all but one (a plurinomal) of its
current federal deputies are PAN. Still, Baja's
maquila-dominated economy has, like most northern Mexican
states, been hit hard by the US slowdown. That, combined with
public despair over the government's inability to quell
narco-violence might have produced a protest vote against the
incumbent party. Not so in Baja.

THE LONG SHADOW OF HANK
--------------


4. One reason is the lack of a viable alternative in the
state. The PRI in Baja is struggling to come out from under the
shadow of Tijuana's former PRI mayor, Jorge Hank Rohn, best
known for his ties to organized crime and maintaining an animal
menagerie in the municipal hall . The 2007 elections which
brought the PAN to such dominance in the state are largely seen
as a protest vote against Hank and the "PRIistas." Moreover,
the Baja "PRIistas" are divided into at least two camps, one led
by Hank, and the other by PRI Senator Fernando Castro Trenti.
Also, according to Manual Rodriguez, a 29-year-old former
"PRIista" and now candidate for the Green Party (PV),Hank has
alienated many of the young PRI militants in the state, causing
them to flee to small parties (although the PV is known to be
close to the PRI party apparatus, so Mr. Rodriguez has not
strayed far). As in many states in northern Mexico, the
country's other major party, the Democratic Revolutionary Party
(PRD),is virtually non-existent in Baja.

THE MORE THINGS CHANGE, THE MORE THEY STAY THE SAME
-------------- --------------


5. But the main reason the PAN is likely to come out on top
of the July 5 elections is that the protest vote, inasmuch as
there will be one, will come in the form of null votes or voter
absenteeism. Virtually all observers expect turnout to be low
(perhaps only twenty-five percent),and the national campaign to
cast null votes as a form of protest has struck a chord in Baja.
Many voters, especially young ones, have little faith in the
government, from whatever party, to solve their problems.
Najla Wehbe Dipp, another young candidate from PANAL who is
bravely (though hopelessly) running against the Governor's
brother in District V, laments that the few people who do vote
will be PAN loyalists, who other parties would never win over
anyway. She said the challenge for candidates from other
parties like herself is to convince the other seventy-five
percent of voters that nothing will change if they refuse to
vote. Wehbe told poloff, "people from my generation think they
will punish the government by casting a null vote. But, it is
actually the opposite. They will only be helping to return the
same people to power."

BUT MAYBE NOT FOREVER
--------------


6. None of this means the PAN can rest on its laurels. The
PAN in Baja also suffers from division. The national PAN
apparatus created bad feelings among local party loyalists by
(in their view) forcing the candidacy of Gaston Luken in
District V while local "PANistas" favored another candidate.
Further party division is going to ensue as party heavyweights
start vying for the 2010 Tijuana mayoral race. Also, while the
electoral reform which went into effect last year (ref) will not
have an impact on the final results of the election, according
to Antonio Valladolid, an outgoing PAN deputy from Baja, the
reform, which shortened the campaign period and reduced the
amount of money parties can spend, is obliging the PAN to make
more grassroots efforts than it has needed to in the past. In
addition, Guillermo Caballero, a pollster hired by the state
government, is warning the PAN administration that on the
economic front, it is creating expectations it cannot meet.
"Every day in the paper, some PAN official is talking about a
new factory or investment that will supposedly turn the state's
economic fortunes around, but the voters don't yet feel any
economic recovery. Creating these high expectations could come
back to bite the PAN."


7. COMMENT: For now, though, the PAN is safely ensconced in
Baja. The state's next representatives to the national
legislature, from whichever party, can be expected to continue
to support a federal police and military presence in the state
because voters do not see any other option amid continued
violence. This cannot, however, be interpreted as contentment
among the population. Sooner or later, the government will
have to start showing some results on the economic and security
fronts.


KRAMER