Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
09TELAVIV808
2009-04-03 16:51:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Tel Aviv
Cable title:
FOREIGN MINISTER LIEBERMAN HAS ARRIVED
how-toVZCZCXRO9301 PP RUEHROV DE RUEHTV #0808/01 0931651 ZNY CCCCC ZZH P 031651Z APR 09 FM AMEMBASSY TEL AVIV TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 1321 INFO RUEHXK/ARAB ISRAELI COLLECTIVE PRIORITY RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC PRIORITY RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK PRIORITY 8373
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TEL AVIV 000808
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/03/2019
TAGS: PGOV KPAL EG IS
SUBJECT: FOREIGN MINISTER LIEBERMAN HAS ARRIVED
Classified By: A/DCM Marc J. Sievers for reasons 1.4 (b),(d).
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TEL AVIV 000808
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/03/2019
TAGS: PGOV KPAL EG IS
SUBJECT: FOREIGN MINISTER LIEBERMAN HAS ARRIVED
Classified By: A/DCM Marc J. Sievers for reasons 1.4 (b),(d).
1. (C) SUMMARY. Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman's steady
climb in the Israeli political system now has him firmly
planted as leader of Israel's third-largest party, Yisrael
Beitenu (YB),and has earned him a spot as Israel's top
diplomat. Lieberman does not hide that his goal is the Prime
Minister's slot, but his controversial rhetoric and possible
criminal activities could block his ascent. Lieberman's
campaign tactics in the February 2009 elections centered on
Jewish insecurities about their own Arab population, which
helped Lieberman garner additional votes, but further opened
him up to criticism that he is racist. The new chief
diplomat also has provoked Egypt's ire in recent years by
making comments critical of Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak,
and discussing drastic Israeli options should Israel again go
to war with Egypt. Lieberman is dogged by a criminal
investigation that began in 1996 and involves questions of
whether Lieberman accepted bribes and engaged in other white
collar crimes. Lieberman's bombastic nature sometimes
overshadows more pragmatic positions. In his first speech at
the Foreign Ministry he appeared to strike a combative tone,
but a careful reading of his comments show that while he
rejects any existing proposals for a "shelf agreement," he
acknowledges Israel's commitment to the Roadmap and its
implicit creation of a Palestinian state. Lieberman is
focused on creating a secure, Jewish state, with little
concern for how Israel gets there, including signing an
agreement that requires Israel to uproot some of its citizens
from the West Bank. In the end, though, Lieberman probably
will not be a key decision-maker in issues of greatest
concern to the U.S. Instead, Prime Minister Binyamin
Netanyahu will manage Israel's most important foreign policy
matters, probably in close consultation with Defense Minister
Ehud Barak.
--------------
A POWERFUL FIGURE LOOKING TO RISE TO THE TOP
--------------
2. (SBU) Lieberman's rise to the top echelon of Israeli
politics has been remarkable. Born in present-day Moldova,
Lieberman immigrated to Israel in 1978 and became involved in
rightwing politics while a student at Hebrew University. He
worked his way up the ranks of the Likud party and served as
the Director General of the Prime Minister's Office during
Netanyahu's first term as premier during 1996-99. Lieberman
then served in former Prime Minister Sharon's governments
from 2001 to 2006, all the while working to broaden his
political base beyond the Russian community in Israel. His
hardline security posture and focus on the Iranian threat
resonated with the Israeli electorate, helping his YB party
garner 11 seats in the 2006 elections. Lieberman set his
sights higher for elections held this February, correctly
predicting that his party would surpass the venerable Labor
party to become the third-largest faction in the Knesset.
Lieberman enjoyed the status this conferred upon him as a
kingmaker during coalition negotiations, but has made clear
he expects to move eventually from kingmaker to "king," i.e.
to become prime minister.
--------------
KNOWN FOR CONTROVERSIAL STATEMENTS
--------------
3. (SBU) Lieberman in the February elections focused his
campaign largely on the wedge issue of the role of Israel's
Arab community. Lieberman's campaign capitalized on growing
anxiety among Israeli Jews that Israel's twenty percent Arab
minority increasingly identifies with Israel's enemies.
Whether or not the anxiety is well-founded, Lieberman's
campaign rhetoric had an impact. His campaign slogan - "Only
Lieberman Understands Arabic" - and his focus on requiring
all Israeli citizens to pledge loyalty to the state almost
certainly gave him a boost in the polls, although his
anti-Arab panderings also were widely seen as evidence of
Lieberman's racism. (COMMENT: Lieberman's loyalty oath
initiative also served to tweak the ultraorthodox, another
segment of Israel's population with which the stridently
secular YB leader has clashed.) His comments have not
ruffled feathers only with his domestic audience; Lieberman
caused a diplomatic stir in Cairo after he said on the floor
of the Knesset that if Egyptian President Mubarak continued
to refuse to visit Israel, Mubarak could "go to hell." Some
years earlier, Lieberman caused his first diplomatic crisis
with Egypt by suggesting in a speech that in the event of war
with Egypt, Israel could bomb the Aswan Dam.
--------------
AND POTENTIALLY CRIMINAL CONDUCT
TEL AVIV 00000808 002 OF 002
--------------
4. (SBU) In an investigation that began in 1996, Lieberman
is suspected of fraud, breach of trust, and money laundering,
as well as taking bribes through a consulting firm owned by
his daughter. The police fraud squad on April 2 questioned
Lieberman for seven hours, and a law enforcement official
said the YB leader would be interrogated at lease once more.
There is much chatter here that Lieberman is likely to be
indicted sometime soon, but we believe that so far this is
only (in some cases hopeful) speculation. Lieberman has
skillfully used the investigations to his political
advantage, portraying himself as a victim of opponents who
are focused on bringing him down any way they can.
--------------
NOT NECESSARILY THE BOGEYMAN
--------------
5. (C) Much of the nuance of Lieberman's political posture
is lost in his bombastic rhetoric. Commentators and
diplomats throughout the world this week have seized on
Lieberman's inaugural speech as Foreign Minister when he
quoted in Latin the Roman adage that those who seek peace
should first prepare for war, and proclaimed that the
Annapolis process was not binding on the current Israeli
government. These comments made for headlines even in
Israel, with some calling Lieberman a warmonger, and served
to confirm the worst fears in some that Lieberman would use
his new post as Foreign Minister to block progress toward
peace. A careful reading of his remarks, however, shows
Lieberman sent a very public (though perhaps undiplomatic)
message that rejects the shelf agreement offered to Abu Mazen
by former Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, but stresses the new
government's commitment to the Roadmap and, by implication,
the Roadmap's goal of a two-state solution.
6. (C) We are under no illusion that Lieberman is the next
Yossi Beilin, the longtime peace proponent who served as
Deputy Foreign Minister under Shimon Peres in the Oslo years
and later led the dovish Meretz party and launched the Geneva
Initiative (it is worth noting, however, that Lieberman and
Beilin are on friendly terms and for years lunched together
once a week in the Knesset cafeteria). Lieberman is an
ardent Jewish nationalist who profoundly distrusts Israel's
Arab neighbors (and many Israeli Arabs). He is
single-mindedly focused on the end game -- assuring the
security of Israel as a Jewish state -- with little concern
for how Israel gets there. That is why he can champion a
hawkish platform on negotiations with the Palestinians, while
also declaring openly that he is prepared to uproot his own
family from their home in a West Bank settlement if Israel
can reach a satisfactory agreement with the Palestinians.
Lieberman, unlike some of Netanyahu's other coalition
partners, is not ideologically or religiously driven to hold
on to the West Bank as part of Israel's God-given patrimony.
--------------
AND CERTAINLY NOT THE BOSS
--------------
7. (C) Lieberman already has garnered much press in
relation to his new role, but despite his title he probably
will not be a key foreign policy decision-maker on most of
the issues of concern to the U.S. Relations with the
Palestinians (and the Syrians, should such talks occur) will
be managed from inside the Prime Minister's bureau, and
Netanyahu is more likely to lean on Labor Party leader and
Defense Minister Barak rather than Lieberman for policy
advice. In addition, the Ministry of Defense controls the
West Bank and plays the leading role on Gaza humanitarian
issues. Given the Egyptians' abhorrence of Lieberman, we
expect engagement with Cairo to be managed by the Defense
Ministry, which in any case has played the lead role with the
Egyptians for a number of years. Netanyahu, of course, will
have to take into account Lieberman's positions, and
Lieberman's blunt rhetoric will no doubt cause headaches for
Bibi, but the key messages we should focus on will come from
the Prime Minister himself.
********************************************* ********************
Visit Embassy Tel Aviv's Classified Website:
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/telaviv
********************************************* ********************
CUNNINGHAM
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/03/2019
TAGS: PGOV KPAL EG IS
SUBJECT: FOREIGN MINISTER LIEBERMAN HAS ARRIVED
Classified By: A/DCM Marc J. Sievers for reasons 1.4 (b),(d).
1. (C) SUMMARY. Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman's steady
climb in the Israeli political system now has him firmly
planted as leader of Israel's third-largest party, Yisrael
Beitenu (YB),and has earned him a spot as Israel's top
diplomat. Lieberman does not hide that his goal is the Prime
Minister's slot, but his controversial rhetoric and possible
criminal activities could block his ascent. Lieberman's
campaign tactics in the February 2009 elections centered on
Jewish insecurities about their own Arab population, which
helped Lieberman garner additional votes, but further opened
him up to criticism that he is racist. The new chief
diplomat also has provoked Egypt's ire in recent years by
making comments critical of Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak,
and discussing drastic Israeli options should Israel again go
to war with Egypt. Lieberman is dogged by a criminal
investigation that began in 1996 and involves questions of
whether Lieberman accepted bribes and engaged in other white
collar crimes. Lieberman's bombastic nature sometimes
overshadows more pragmatic positions. In his first speech at
the Foreign Ministry he appeared to strike a combative tone,
but a careful reading of his comments show that while he
rejects any existing proposals for a "shelf agreement," he
acknowledges Israel's commitment to the Roadmap and its
implicit creation of a Palestinian state. Lieberman is
focused on creating a secure, Jewish state, with little
concern for how Israel gets there, including signing an
agreement that requires Israel to uproot some of its citizens
from the West Bank. In the end, though, Lieberman probably
will not be a key decision-maker in issues of greatest
concern to the U.S. Instead, Prime Minister Binyamin
Netanyahu will manage Israel's most important foreign policy
matters, probably in close consultation with Defense Minister
Ehud Barak.
--------------
A POWERFUL FIGURE LOOKING TO RISE TO THE TOP
--------------
2. (SBU) Lieberman's rise to the top echelon of Israeli
politics has been remarkable. Born in present-day Moldova,
Lieberman immigrated to Israel in 1978 and became involved in
rightwing politics while a student at Hebrew University. He
worked his way up the ranks of the Likud party and served as
the Director General of the Prime Minister's Office during
Netanyahu's first term as premier during 1996-99. Lieberman
then served in former Prime Minister Sharon's governments
from 2001 to 2006, all the while working to broaden his
political base beyond the Russian community in Israel. His
hardline security posture and focus on the Iranian threat
resonated with the Israeli electorate, helping his YB party
garner 11 seats in the 2006 elections. Lieberman set his
sights higher for elections held this February, correctly
predicting that his party would surpass the venerable Labor
party to become the third-largest faction in the Knesset.
Lieberman enjoyed the status this conferred upon him as a
kingmaker during coalition negotiations, but has made clear
he expects to move eventually from kingmaker to "king," i.e.
to become prime minister.
--------------
KNOWN FOR CONTROVERSIAL STATEMENTS
--------------
3. (SBU) Lieberman in the February elections focused his
campaign largely on the wedge issue of the role of Israel's
Arab community. Lieberman's campaign capitalized on growing
anxiety among Israeli Jews that Israel's twenty percent Arab
minority increasingly identifies with Israel's enemies.
Whether or not the anxiety is well-founded, Lieberman's
campaign rhetoric had an impact. His campaign slogan - "Only
Lieberman Understands Arabic" - and his focus on requiring
all Israeli citizens to pledge loyalty to the state almost
certainly gave him a boost in the polls, although his
anti-Arab panderings also were widely seen as evidence of
Lieberman's racism. (COMMENT: Lieberman's loyalty oath
initiative also served to tweak the ultraorthodox, another
segment of Israel's population with which the stridently
secular YB leader has clashed.) His comments have not
ruffled feathers only with his domestic audience; Lieberman
caused a diplomatic stir in Cairo after he said on the floor
of the Knesset that if Egyptian President Mubarak continued
to refuse to visit Israel, Mubarak could "go to hell." Some
years earlier, Lieberman caused his first diplomatic crisis
with Egypt by suggesting in a speech that in the event of war
with Egypt, Israel could bomb the Aswan Dam.
--------------
AND POTENTIALLY CRIMINAL CONDUCT
TEL AVIV 00000808 002 OF 002
--------------
4. (SBU) In an investigation that began in 1996, Lieberman
is suspected of fraud, breach of trust, and money laundering,
as well as taking bribes through a consulting firm owned by
his daughter. The police fraud squad on April 2 questioned
Lieberman for seven hours, and a law enforcement official
said the YB leader would be interrogated at lease once more.
There is much chatter here that Lieberman is likely to be
indicted sometime soon, but we believe that so far this is
only (in some cases hopeful) speculation. Lieberman has
skillfully used the investigations to his political
advantage, portraying himself as a victim of opponents who
are focused on bringing him down any way they can.
--------------
NOT NECESSARILY THE BOGEYMAN
--------------
5. (C) Much of the nuance of Lieberman's political posture
is lost in his bombastic rhetoric. Commentators and
diplomats throughout the world this week have seized on
Lieberman's inaugural speech as Foreign Minister when he
quoted in Latin the Roman adage that those who seek peace
should first prepare for war, and proclaimed that the
Annapolis process was not binding on the current Israeli
government. These comments made for headlines even in
Israel, with some calling Lieberman a warmonger, and served
to confirm the worst fears in some that Lieberman would use
his new post as Foreign Minister to block progress toward
peace. A careful reading of his remarks, however, shows
Lieberman sent a very public (though perhaps undiplomatic)
message that rejects the shelf agreement offered to Abu Mazen
by former Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, but stresses the new
government's commitment to the Roadmap and, by implication,
the Roadmap's goal of a two-state solution.
6. (C) We are under no illusion that Lieberman is the next
Yossi Beilin, the longtime peace proponent who served as
Deputy Foreign Minister under Shimon Peres in the Oslo years
and later led the dovish Meretz party and launched the Geneva
Initiative (it is worth noting, however, that Lieberman and
Beilin are on friendly terms and for years lunched together
once a week in the Knesset cafeteria). Lieberman is an
ardent Jewish nationalist who profoundly distrusts Israel's
Arab neighbors (and many Israeli Arabs). He is
single-mindedly focused on the end game -- assuring the
security of Israel as a Jewish state -- with little concern
for how Israel gets there. That is why he can champion a
hawkish platform on negotiations with the Palestinians, while
also declaring openly that he is prepared to uproot his own
family from their home in a West Bank settlement if Israel
can reach a satisfactory agreement with the Palestinians.
Lieberman, unlike some of Netanyahu's other coalition
partners, is not ideologically or religiously driven to hold
on to the West Bank as part of Israel's God-given patrimony.
--------------
AND CERTAINLY NOT THE BOSS
--------------
7. (C) Lieberman already has garnered much press in
relation to his new role, but despite his title he probably
will not be a key foreign policy decision-maker on most of
the issues of concern to the U.S. Relations with the
Palestinians (and the Syrians, should such talks occur) will
be managed from inside the Prime Minister's bureau, and
Netanyahu is more likely to lean on Labor Party leader and
Defense Minister Barak rather than Lieberman for policy
advice. In addition, the Ministry of Defense controls the
West Bank and plays the leading role on Gaza humanitarian
issues. Given the Egyptians' abhorrence of Lieberman, we
expect engagement with Cairo to be managed by the Defense
Ministry, which in any case has played the lead role with the
Egyptians for a number of years. Netanyahu, of course, will
have to take into account Lieberman's positions, and
Lieberman's blunt rhetoric will no doubt cause headaches for
Bibi, but the key messages we should focus on will come from
the Prime Minister himself.
********************************************* ********************
Visit Embassy Tel Aviv's Classified Website:
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/telaviv
********************************************* ********************
CUNNINGHAM