Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
09TELAVIV786
2009-04-01 16:26:00
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Embassy Tel Aviv
Cable title:
NETANYAHU SET TO MANAGE BROAD BUT UNWIELDY
how-toVZCZCXRO6846 PP RUEHROV DE RUEHTV #0786/01 0911626 ZNR UUUUU ZZH P 011626Z APR 09 FM AMEMBASSY TEL AVIV TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 1284 INFO RUEHXK/ARAB ISRAELI COLLECTIVE PRIORITY RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC PRIORITY RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK PRIORITY 8355
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 TEL AVIV 000786
SENSITIVE
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV IS
SUBJECT: NETANYAHU SET TO MANAGE BROAD BUT UNWIELDY
COALITION
1, (SBU) SUMMARY. Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu took
office April 1 after assembling the largest government in
Israeli history. Negotiations with other party leaders had
quickly established a steep cost to secure their
participation, but Netanyahu was intent on a broad government
that would give him his best shot at serving a lengthy term.
The 74 seat-coalition offers him a cushion against sudden
defections, but Israel's bare knuckle politics offers him
little sense of security. Netanyahu likely will face some
friction within his coalition - Yisrael Beitenu (YB) and SHAS
are a good bet to squabble - and he will be required to
further sort out roles and responsibilities of his ministers
and fellow Likudniks, which also could lead to ruffled
feathers. The nascent revolt within the Labor party means
that some of those seats could slip away from Netanyahu. It
is too early to gauge exactly how Netanyahu will lead his
government, but we anticipate that titles will have little
bearing on responsibilities. End Summary.
--------------
BROAD COALITION WITH A PRICE...
--------------
2. (SBU) Prime Minister Netanyahu takes office as head of
the largest government in the history of Israel, and
apparently one of the largest in the world. The government
of 30 Ministers, at least 7 deputy ministers, and various
newly-created posts is a product of political wheeling and
dealing that began soon after the election in February.
Netanyahu needed YB -- which had indicated its openness to
forming a coalition with Kadima -- to ensure that he would
become the next Prime Minister, and his offer to YB head
Avigdor Lieberman was roundly viewed as generous. The deal
with Lieberman established a high market rate for securing
coalition partners, and Netanyahu paid handsomely to Labor
and, to a lesser extent SHAS and United Torah Judaism (UTJ).
With few ministries (Finance being the only major one) left
over to dole out to Likud party stalwarts and rising stars,
Netanyahu was forced to split ministries, add deputy
positions, and enforce committee chair rotations to stifle
grumbling within Likud.
--------------
...THAT MIGHT JUST BE WORTH IT
--------------
3. (SBU) The government, though it appears bloated, may
provide Netanyahu with his best hope for long-term stability.
The 74-seat coalition means that any one party, save for YB,
could leave Netanyahu's coalition without depriving him of a
governing majority. It also provides an additional buffer
should the dissident faction within Labor (which opposed
joining the coalition) split off from, or assume control of,
the party. Israeli politics are extremely dynamic, however,
and what appears to be a solid majority today, can quickly be
a coalition crisis tomorrow.
--------------
WHERE ARE TE POINTS OF FRICTION?
--------------
4. (SBU) A coalition and government thislarge can promote
longevity, but it is likely toalso be a painful existence.
Netanyahu has good elations with the party heads in his
coalition (ost notably, his relationship with Defense
Miniser Barak is much better than the relationship betwen
former Prime Minister Olmert and Barak in the last year of
Olmert's term),but Lieberman's stridently secular positions
could cause significant friction with the ultraorthodox SHAS
and UTJ parties. Barak and Lieberman are neither enemies nor
close friends, but Barak had earlier criticized Netanyahu's
decision to offer Lieberman, who is under criminal
investigation, control over the Justice Ministry and the
police. Lieberman, for his part, was openly critical of
Barak's execution of Operation Cast Lead, and reportedly
sought to block Netanyahu's plans to bring Barak and Labor
into the coalition. Beyond party disputes, Netanyahu may be
called on to delineate (either explicitly or implicitly) a
clear division of responsibilities and pecking order among
his ministers (some of whose portfolios appear to overlap),
which could spark resentment among those relegated to the
second and third-tiers.
5. (SBU) The disunity in Labor also could pose a challenge
to Netanyahu. Five Labor holdouts did not vote confidence in
his government (note: by not voting they technically did not
break with party discipline, which suggests this is not yet
an all-out rebellion),and they seem intent on ousting Barak
TEL AVIV 00000786 002 OF 002
in the next party leadership primary. Netanyahu, though his
large government means he is not beholden to Labor, will have
to be careful to avoid making policy decisions or statements
that further alienate the rebellious faction in that party if
he seeks to keep their 13 seats. Lieberman's hardline public
statement on assuming control of the Foreign Ministry the
afternoon of April 1, in which he dismissed the Annapolis
process and suggested that only strength, not more
concessions, would bring peace, is likely to add to the
misgivings within Labor about being in a coalition with
Lieberman.
--------------
TITLES AND INFLUENCE -- NO CORRELATION
--------------
6. (SBU) Positions and titles do not provide the best
insight to how the Netanyahu government will operate. The
clearest example of this is Bibi's choice for the Finance
portfolio, Yuval Steinitz. Bibi was long rumored to be
holding this post for himself. With limited spoils to spread
around, he offered it to a capable and loyal MK with no
background in economics, and then named himself Minister of
Economic Strategy. Netanyahu also named a coterie of Vice
Premiers (party rival Silvan Shalom and political newcomer
Moshe "Bugi" Yaalon) and Deputy Prime Ministers (Barak,
Lieberman, and Dan Meridor),but refused to name an heir
apparent who would take over should he become incapacitated
or need to step down. In the end, Bibi prefers Bibi, and he
will rely on his own counsel, along with those who have
earned his trust over the years, regardless of their
positions.
********************************************* ********************
Visit Embassy Tel Aviv's Classified Website:
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/telaviv
********************************************* ********************
CUNNINGHAM
SENSITIVE
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV IS
SUBJECT: NETANYAHU SET TO MANAGE BROAD BUT UNWIELDY
COALITION
1, (SBU) SUMMARY. Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu took
office April 1 after assembling the largest government in
Israeli history. Negotiations with other party leaders had
quickly established a steep cost to secure their
participation, but Netanyahu was intent on a broad government
that would give him his best shot at serving a lengthy term.
The 74 seat-coalition offers him a cushion against sudden
defections, but Israel's bare knuckle politics offers him
little sense of security. Netanyahu likely will face some
friction within his coalition - Yisrael Beitenu (YB) and SHAS
are a good bet to squabble - and he will be required to
further sort out roles and responsibilities of his ministers
and fellow Likudniks, which also could lead to ruffled
feathers. The nascent revolt within the Labor party means
that some of those seats could slip away from Netanyahu. It
is too early to gauge exactly how Netanyahu will lead his
government, but we anticipate that titles will have little
bearing on responsibilities. End Summary.
--------------
BROAD COALITION WITH A PRICE...
--------------
2. (SBU) Prime Minister Netanyahu takes office as head of
the largest government in the history of Israel, and
apparently one of the largest in the world. The government
of 30 Ministers, at least 7 deputy ministers, and various
newly-created posts is a product of political wheeling and
dealing that began soon after the election in February.
Netanyahu needed YB -- which had indicated its openness to
forming a coalition with Kadima -- to ensure that he would
become the next Prime Minister, and his offer to YB head
Avigdor Lieberman was roundly viewed as generous. The deal
with Lieberman established a high market rate for securing
coalition partners, and Netanyahu paid handsomely to Labor
and, to a lesser extent SHAS and United Torah Judaism (UTJ).
With few ministries (Finance being the only major one) left
over to dole out to Likud party stalwarts and rising stars,
Netanyahu was forced to split ministries, add deputy
positions, and enforce committee chair rotations to stifle
grumbling within Likud.
--------------
...THAT MIGHT JUST BE WORTH IT
--------------
3. (SBU) The government, though it appears bloated, may
provide Netanyahu with his best hope for long-term stability.
The 74-seat coalition means that any one party, save for YB,
could leave Netanyahu's coalition without depriving him of a
governing majority. It also provides an additional buffer
should the dissident faction within Labor (which opposed
joining the coalition) split off from, or assume control of,
the party. Israeli politics are extremely dynamic, however,
and what appears to be a solid majority today, can quickly be
a coalition crisis tomorrow.
--------------
WHERE ARE TE POINTS OF FRICTION?
--------------
4. (SBU) A coalition and government thislarge can promote
longevity, but it is likely toalso be a painful existence.
Netanyahu has good elations with the party heads in his
coalition (ost notably, his relationship with Defense
Miniser Barak is much better than the relationship betwen
former Prime Minister Olmert and Barak in the last year of
Olmert's term),but Lieberman's stridently secular positions
could cause significant friction with the ultraorthodox SHAS
and UTJ parties. Barak and Lieberman are neither enemies nor
close friends, but Barak had earlier criticized Netanyahu's
decision to offer Lieberman, who is under criminal
investigation, control over the Justice Ministry and the
police. Lieberman, for his part, was openly critical of
Barak's execution of Operation Cast Lead, and reportedly
sought to block Netanyahu's plans to bring Barak and Labor
into the coalition. Beyond party disputes, Netanyahu may be
called on to delineate (either explicitly or implicitly) a
clear division of responsibilities and pecking order among
his ministers (some of whose portfolios appear to overlap),
which could spark resentment among those relegated to the
second and third-tiers.
5. (SBU) The disunity in Labor also could pose a challenge
to Netanyahu. Five Labor holdouts did not vote confidence in
his government (note: by not voting they technically did not
break with party discipline, which suggests this is not yet
an all-out rebellion),and they seem intent on ousting Barak
TEL AVIV 00000786 002 OF 002
in the next party leadership primary. Netanyahu, though his
large government means he is not beholden to Labor, will have
to be careful to avoid making policy decisions or statements
that further alienate the rebellious faction in that party if
he seeks to keep their 13 seats. Lieberman's hardline public
statement on assuming control of the Foreign Ministry the
afternoon of April 1, in which he dismissed the Annapolis
process and suggested that only strength, not more
concessions, would bring peace, is likely to add to the
misgivings within Labor about being in a coalition with
Lieberman.
--------------
TITLES AND INFLUENCE -- NO CORRELATION
--------------
6. (SBU) Positions and titles do not provide the best
insight to how the Netanyahu government will operate. The
clearest example of this is Bibi's choice for the Finance
portfolio, Yuval Steinitz. Bibi was long rumored to be
holding this post for himself. With limited spoils to spread
around, he offered it to a capable and loyal MK with no
background in economics, and then named himself Minister of
Economic Strategy. Netanyahu also named a coterie of Vice
Premiers (party rival Silvan Shalom and political newcomer
Moshe "Bugi" Yaalon) and Deputy Prime Ministers (Barak,
Lieberman, and Dan Meridor),but refused to name an heir
apparent who would take over should he become incapacitated
or need to step down. In the end, Bibi prefers Bibi, and he
will rely on his own counsel, along with those who have
earned his trust over the years, regardless of their
positions.
********************************************* ********************
Visit Embassy Tel Aviv's Classified Website:
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/telaviv
********************************************* ********************
CUNNINGHAM