Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
09TELAVIV704
2009-03-25 15:54:00
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Embassy Tel Aviv
how-toVZCZCXYZ0000 PP RUEHWEB DE RUEHTV #0704/01 0841554 ZNR UUUUU ZZH (CCY AD46FEAE MSI7887-695) P 251554Z MAR 09 FM AMEMBASSY TEL AVIV TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 1143 INFO RUEHXK/ARAB ISRAELI COLLECTIVE PRIORITY RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
UNCLAS TEL AVIV 000704
SENSITIVE
SIPDIS
C O R R E C T E D COPY CAPTION
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL PGOV IS
SUBJECT: NETANYAHU SECURES A COALITION
REF: A. TEL AVIV 675
B. TEL AVIV 646
C. TEL AVIV 580
UNCLAS TEL AVIV 000704
SENSITIVE
SIPDIS
C O R R E C T E D COPY CAPTION
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL PGOV IS
SUBJECT: NETANYAHU SECURES A COALITION
REF: A. TEL AVIV 675
B. TEL AVIV 646
C. TEL AVIV 580
1. (SBU) SUMMARY. Prime Minister-Designate Binyamin
Netanyahu saw his coalition cemented the evening of March 24
when the Labor party's Central Committee voted to join the
next government. Netanyahu also has agreements with Yisrael
Beitenu (YB) and SHAS, giving him a 66-seat coalition.
Netanyahu is slated to present the government to the Knesset
on March 30 and take office that day. The agreement with
Labor helps create a less rightwing coalition, and gives the
incoming premier the Minister of Defense (Labor leader Ehud
Barak) that he had sought even before the elections. The
coalition agreements, however, will present Netanyahu with
other problems. He must now pick through what few
ministerial portfolios remain to placate members of his own
party. He also must strive to maintain a balance that will
keep Labor satisfied while not alienating his partners on the
right. That delicate balancing act has already begun, as
reports of a deal with YB for further building in the E-1
corridor appeared the same day as Netanyahu declared he
would, in fact, conduct peace talks with the Palestinians.
Barak, for his part, at least temporarily beat back his
challengers and will have an array of spoils to withhold or
reward them with. End Summary.
--------------
NETANYAHU SECURES A MAJORITY,
LOOKS TO PRESENT GOVERNMENT NEXT WEEK
--------------
2. (SBU) The Labor party (13 seats in the Knesset) vote on
March 24 to join Netanyahu's government gave Netanyahu a
66-seat coalition in the 120-member Knesset, as he had
earlier signed agreements with YB (15 seats) and SHAS (11
seats). The Likud leader the following day was set to sign a
deal with the Jewish Home party, which would expand his
coalition to 69 seats. Press reports quoting unnamed sources
close to the Likud leader say he will present his government
to the Knesset on Tuesday, March 30, at which point the
legislative body will conduct a vote of confidence in his
government and he and his ministers will officially take
office. In the interim, he reportedly will resume talks with
United Torah Judaism, which could bring him an additional
five seats, but these discussions will not push back
Netanyahu's desired timeline.
--------------
GOVERNMENT COMES WITH BENEFITS, HEADACHES
--------------
3. (SBU) The agreement with Labor gained Netanyahu not only
a government, but provided him additional international
legitimacy by having the nominally dovish Labor party on
board what would otherwise be a solid rightwing government.
It also gives Netanyahu a Defense Minister in Barak whom the
public largely trusts as Israel faces tough decisions on how
to confront Iran's nuclear ambitions, as well as the
continuing rocket attacks from the Gaza Strip and potential
threats from Hizballah and Syria. Additionally, Labor's
inclusion in the government dilutes some of the bargaining
power of Netanyahu's rightwing partners. It is not
coincidence, for example, that Jewish Home apparently gave up
its demand for the Education Ministry immediately after
Labor's deal was approved.
4. (SBU) That said, Labor's entry into the coalition poses
three key challenges to Netanyahu. First, will Netanyahu
actually have Labor's full support? At least seven Labor MKs
stridently opposed the agreement with Netanyahu, and it is
possible some of these MKs will operate as a dissident
faction or split off from Labor entirely. Second, the
incoming premier will have to mollify as many as 11 members
of his own party who had expected to be ministers. With
Labor gaining five ministerial positions Netanyahu has only
six portfolios remaining, none of which rise to the level of
a senior cabinet position. One key factor working in
Netanyahu's favor is that opponents in the party are likely
to be chastened by Likud's last rebellion, which led to the
party garnering only 12 seats in the 2006 election. With
Tzipi Livni and her Kadima party already having won a
plurality in the February elections, and standing ready to
pounce at another electoral opportunity, disappointed Likud
MKs are likely to swallow their pride for now. The third
challenge for Netanyahu will be maintaining a middle ground
between Labor and his rightwing partners. Already Netanyahu
has begun the delicate dance, telling a group of Israeli,
Arab, and foreign businessmen today that he will engage in
peace talks with the Palestinians, while unconfirmed reports
leaked that he had reached a secret agreement with Lieberman
to commence construction in the E-1 area that would threaten
the contiguity of Palestinian population centers in the West
Bank.
--------------
BARAK PREVAILS AGAINST PARTY FOES
--------------
5. (SBU) In the Labor vote that provided Netanyahu his
majority, the party's Central Committee by a 58 to 42 percent
margin opted to approve Barak's agreement to enter the
coalition. The days and hours leading up to the vote proved
acrimonious, as the party appeared split over which course --
joining the government or playing second to Kadima in the
opposition -- would prove the death knell of the once-proud
party. However, a high voter turnout, along with strong
backing from Histadrut labor federation chairman Ofer Eini,
helped Barak secure the victory. Notably, the Central
Committee vote also gives Barak the sole discretion in
appointing Labor ministers to the new government. How Barak
uses that power -- will he appoint foes as well as friends?
-- will help determine whether the party rift will heal or
widen.
6. (SBU) Though bringing in a relatively small number of
seats, Barak has significant spoils to spread around. Israel
media reports that Labor is slated to get the Defense
Ministry, Industry and Trade, Agriculture, and Welfare
ministries, along with a ministry without portfolio, two
deputy minister positions (one in the Ministry of Defense),
and a rotating chairmanship of the powerful Foreign Affairs
and Defense Committee in the Knesset. The agreement also
gives Labor and Histadrut a formal say in economic decisions,
provides for increases in pensions and unemployment benefits,
and stipulates that the Defense Minister will be a full
partner to the limited forum of Cabinet decisionmakers.
********************************************* ********************
Visit Embassy Tel Aviv's Classified Website:
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/telaviv
********************************************* ********************
CUNNINGHAM
SENSITIVE
SIPDIS
C O R R E C T E D COPY CAPTION
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL PGOV IS
SUBJECT: NETANYAHU SECURES A COALITION
REF: A. TEL AVIV 675
B. TEL AVIV 646
C. TEL AVIV 580
1. (SBU) SUMMARY. Prime Minister-Designate Binyamin
Netanyahu saw his coalition cemented the evening of March 24
when the Labor party's Central Committee voted to join the
next government. Netanyahu also has agreements with Yisrael
Beitenu (YB) and SHAS, giving him a 66-seat coalition.
Netanyahu is slated to present the government to the Knesset
on March 30 and take office that day. The agreement with
Labor helps create a less rightwing coalition, and gives the
incoming premier the Minister of Defense (Labor leader Ehud
Barak) that he had sought even before the elections. The
coalition agreements, however, will present Netanyahu with
other problems. He must now pick through what few
ministerial portfolios remain to placate members of his own
party. He also must strive to maintain a balance that will
keep Labor satisfied while not alienating his partners on the
right. That delicate balancing act has already begun, as
reports of a deal with YB for further building in the E-1
corridor appeared the same day as Netanyahu declared he
would, in fact, conduct peace talks with the Palestinians.
Barak, for his part, at least temporarily beat back his
challengers and will have an array of spoils to withhold or
reward them with. End Summary.
--------------
NETANYAHU SECURES A MAJORITY,
LOOKS TO PRESENT GOVERNMENT NEXT WEEK
--------------
2. (SBU) The Labor party (13 seats in the Knesset) vote on
March 24 to join Netanyahu's government gave Netanyahu a
66-seat coalition in the 120-member Knesset, as he had
earlier signed agreements with YB (15 seats) and SHAS (11
seats). The Likud leader the following day was set to sign a
deal with the Jewish Home party, which would expand his
coalition to 69 seats. Press reports quoting unnamed sources
close to the Likud leader say he will present his government
to the Knesset on Tuesday, March 30, at which point the
legislative body will conduct a vote of confidence in his
government and he and his ministers will officially take
office. In the interim, he reportedly will resume talks with
United Torah Judaism, which could bring him an additional
five seats, but these discussions will not push back
Netanyahu's desired timeline.
--------------
GOVERNMENT COMES WITH BENEFITS, HEADACHES
--------------
3. (SBU) The agreement with Labor gained Netanyahu not only
a government, but provided him additional international
legitimacy by having the nominally dovish Labor party on
board what would otherwise be a solid rightwing government.
It also gives Netanyahu a Defense Minister in Barak whom the
public largely trusts as Israel faces tough decisions on how
to confront Iran's nuclear ambitions, as well as the
continuing rocket attacks from the Gaza Strip and potential
threats from Hizballah and Syria. Additionally, Labor's
inclusion in the government dilutes some of the bargaining
power of Netanyahu's rightwing partners. It is not
coincidence, for example, that Jewish Home apparently gave up
its demand for the Education Ministry immediately after
Labor's deal was approved.
4. (SBU) That said, Labor's entry into the coalition poses
three key challenges to Netanyahu. First, will Netanyahu
actually have Labor's full support? At least seven Labor MKs
stridently opposed the agreement with Netanyahu, and it is
possible some of these MKs will operate as a dissident
faction or split off from Labor entirely. Second, the
incoming premier will have to mollify as many as 11 members
of his own party who had expected to be ministers. With
Labor gaining five ministerial positions Netanyahu has only
six portfolios remaining, none of which rise to the level of
a senior cabinet position. One key factor working in
Netanyahu's favor is that opponents in the party are likely
to be chastened by Likud's last rebellion, which led to the
party garnering only 12 seats in the 2006 election. With
Tzipi Livni and her Kadima party already having won a
plurality in the February elections, and standing ready to
pounce at another electoral opportunity, disappointed Likud
MKs are likely to swallow their pride for now. The third
challenge for Netanyahu will be maintaining a middle ground
between Labor and his rightwing partners. Already Netanyahu
has begun the delicate dance, telling a group of Israeli,
Arab, and foreign businessmen today that he will engage in
peace talks with the Palestinians, while unconfirmed reports
leaked that he had reached a secret agreement with Lieberman
to commence construction in the E-1 area that would threaten
the contiguity of Palestinian population centers in the West
Bank.
--------------
BARAK PREVAILS AGAINST PARTY FOES
--------------
5. (SBU) In the Labor vote that provided Netanyahu his
majority, the party's Central Committee by a 58 to 42 percent
margin opted to approve Barak's agreement to enter the
coalition. The days and hours leading up to the vote proved
acrimonious, as the party appeared split over which course --
joining the government or playing second to Kadima in the
opposition -- would prove the death knell of the once-proud
party. However, a high voter turnout, along with strong
backing from Histadrut labor federation chairman Ofer Eini,
helped Barak secure the victory. Notably, the Central
Committee vote also gives Barak the sole discretion in
appointing Labor ministers to the new government. How Barak
uses that power -- will he appoint foes as well as friends?
-- will help determine whether the party rift will heal or
widen.
6. (SBU) Though bringing in a relatively small number of
seats, Barak has significant spoils to spread around. Israel
media reports that Labor is slated to get the Defense
Ministry, Industry and Trade, Agriculture, and Welfare
ministries, along with a ministry without portfolio, two
deputy minister positions (one in the Ministry of Defense),
and a rotating chairmanship of the powerful Foreign Affairs
and Defense Committee in the Knesset. The agreement also
gives Labor and Histadrut a formal say in economic decisions,
provides for increases in pensions and unemployment benefits,
and stipulates that the Defense Minister will be a full
partner to the limited forum of Cabinet decisionmakers.
********************************************* ********************
Visit Embassy Tel Aviv's Classified Website:
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/telaviv
********************************************* ********************
CUNNINGHAM