GAZA SITREP, JANUARY 12, 1200

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TEL AVIV 000064

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/08/2019
TAGS: PREL MOPS PINS KWBG CASC EG IS SY KPAL EAID
PHUM
SUBJECT: GAZA SITREP, JANUARY 12, 1200

Classified By: DCM Luis G. Moreno. Reason 1.4 (b/d)


1. (SBU) Summary: Political debate continues within Israel
about the future of Operation Cast Lead, with Prime Minister
Ehud Olmert, most of the security cabinet, and some senior
leaders in the Israeli military successfully pushing forward
with the campaign, while Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni and
Defense Minister Ehud Barak reportedly lean toward ending
hostilities. The cabinet has not authorized the next stage
in operations -- which reportedly would require thousands of
additional troops to enter Gaza, and could involve an
additional 20 days of combat -- but reservists have begun
participating in fighting within the Gaza Strip. While most
Israel Defense Forces (IDF) ground activity is concentrated
in the north of the strip, troops had begun operating inside
densely-populated Gaza City. Embassy and ConGen Jerusalem
officers are working with the ICRC and GOI to coordinate a
U.S.-led multinational evacuation of foreign nationals from
the Gaza Strip on Wednesday January 14 that would involve
approximately 138 AMCITs and several hundred evacuees from
over 20 other nations. A key issue remains how the evacuees
from southern Gaza will cross Israeli lines. Israeli forces
are scheduled to observe a humanitarian pause in fighting
between 1000 and 1300 local, and Kerem Shalom, Erez, and --
for the first time since hostilities began -- Karni crossings
are slated to be open. Nahal Oz fuel depot is closed. The
Ambassador will meet on January 12 with the GOI humanitarian
coordinator to discuss ways to facilitate improvements in
humanitarian conditions. On the diplomatic front, Israeli
Ministry of Defense Political Bureau head Amos Gilad's trip
to Cairo to discuss Egyptian efforts to halt Hamas smuggling
into Gaza was cancelled, according to press reports. End
Summary.

ISRAELI DECISIO-MAKING


2. (SBU) The political and strategic debate about "Operation
Cast Lead" continues in Israel, with Prime Minister Ehud
Olmert's determination to continue and expand operations
holding sway. Olmert at the cabinet meeting on Sunday
January 11 said that "Israel is approaching the goals it set
for itself, but another effort is needed, and determination,
in order to change the security reality in the south and
bring security to its citizens." Israeli media reported that
most of the security cabinet supports Olmert's view, as does
the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) commander in the South, who
was quoted as saying that stopping the operation now would be
an historic mistake. He recommended that the Prime Minister
authorize the next stage in fighting, which would involve
thousands of additional reservist troops deploying in Gaza.
Senior military sources said that the next stage of the
operation could take 20 days. Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni
reportedly prefers a halt in the offensive because she fears
potential diplomatic fallout and she assesses that deterrence
has been established and would only be undermined if
hostilities continue. Defense Minister Ehud Barak, according
to Israeli media, also opposes escalation because of his
concerns about inserting ground troops deep into densely
populated areas of Gaza.

MILITARY OPERATIONS


3. (C) The Cabinet has not been asked to authorize the
so-called third stage of operations, but Israeli newspapers
all led on January 12 with stories recounting how reserve
units had recently been deployed in Gaza. So far, this
appears to be only a tactical change rather than strategic
change in the operation, and it may be meant to signal to
Hamas that an intensification of operations is imminent and
that the terrorist group should meet Israel's demands for a
cease-fire immediately. Elsewhere, Israel continued to
concentrate efforts in the northern part of the Gaza Strip,
but began operations inside Gaza City over the weekend.
Militants reportedly fired as many as 22 rockets on Sunday,
though the IDF on Sunday said that there has been a
"dramatic" drop in Hamas's ability to launch rockets at
Israel. On the morning of January 12, a Grad rocket scored a
direct hit on a home in Ashkelon, but the inhabitants managed
to escape injury in the basement of the building. Nearly 900
Palestinians have been killed during Operation Cast Lead,
along with 3,695 who have been injured. Israeli casualty
totals stand at 10 soldiers and three civilians killed, with
several hundred soldiers wounded.

HUMANITARIAN


4. (C) Embassy and ConGen are working with the ICRC and GOI
to coordinate a U.S.-led multinational evacuation of foreign
nationals from the Gaza Strip on Wednesday January 14. We
currently anticipate 138 AMCITs and several hundred evacuees
from over 20 other nations to participate in the evacuation.

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GOI has pledged to keep the Allenby border crossing between
Israel and Jordan open as long as necessary to accommodate
the transfer. EMBOFFs are coordinating with the IDF on how
evacuees from southern Gaza will cross IDF lines en route to
the Erez crossing.


5. (SBU) The IDF has reiterated its intention to board and
arrest any vessel that approaches within 20 nautical miles of
the Gaza coast. On January 11, the "Free Gaza Movement"
formally notified the Israeli MOD of its intention to
navigate a vessel called "The Spirit of Humanity" (flying a
Greek flag) from Larnaca, Cyprus, to the port of Gaza City.
The movement, which is currently holding a press conference,
indicated that it expected the vessel to depart January 12
(1200 local) and to arrive in Gaza on January 13 carrying
medical supplies.


6. (SBU) Israel is slated to again observe a "humanitarian
pause" in fighting on January 12 between 1000 and 1300 local.
The IDF observed a similar three-hour pause on Sunday.
Kerem Shalom crossing is open today, with up to 105 trucks
expected to transit into Gaza. Karni crossing was to open
for the first time since hostilities began and 90 truckloads
of grain were to pass through the crossing. However, no
Palestinian trucks have shown up on the Gaza side as of 1200
hours. Erez crossing was open for urgent humanitarian cases
and the crossing of relief workers. Fifty of the 88 NGO
medical team members who applied for entry have been vetted,
approved, and have entered or will enter via Erez today,
according to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. The Nahal Oz
fuel crossing is closed for security reasons.


7. (U) The Ambassador is meeting with Joint Coordination
Room chief Gen. Baruch Spiegel (Res.) at 1600 hours local to
discuss the GOI's current and proposed humanitarian relief
efforts in Gaza. The Israeli Defense Ministry also
announced that it is transmitting live video of humanitarian
supplies transiting the Kerem Shalom crossing, a further step
in its efforts to counter many of the negative images being
broadcast by local and international media during the war.

DIPLOMACY


8. (U) Israeli newspapers on Monday January 12 reported that
Israeli Ministry of Defense Political Bureau head Amos
Gilad's follow-up trip to Cairo to discuss Egyptian efforts
to halt Hamas smuggling into Gaza had been called off. One
Israeli newspaper suggested that the Prime Minister's office
scuttled Gilad's trip so that Israeli operations could
continue unabated. Separately, sources in Olmert's bureau
said that Egypt has begun to relax its stance on bringing in
American and European engineering experts to deal with
tunnels near the Rafah crossing.

NORTHERN BORDERS


9. (C) Israeli media reported that gunshots were fired at an
IDF vehicle operating along the border with Syria. The
vehicle was carrying Israeli civilians and soldiers who were
conducting engineering work along the border. No injuries
were reported. Military sources said it was likely a lone
Syrian gunman. UNDOF was notified and the IDF has heightened
its patrols along the route, according to the USDAO.
Elsewhere in the north, the USDAO reported that there was no
new movement of reservists headed south for combat or for
pre-combat training at the Tse'elim National Ground Training
Center.

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