PROBABLE NEW ISRAELI DEFENSE MINISTER'S HARDLINE

S E C R E T TEL AVIV 000617

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/12/2019
TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER KWBG EG IR SY IS
SUBJECT: PROBABLE NEW ISRAELI DEFENSE MINISTER'S HARDLINE
VIEWS ON THE PALESTINIANS, IRAN, AND SYRIA

Classified By: DCM Luis G. Moreno, Reason 1.4 (b) (d)


1. (S) Summary. Former IDF Chief of General Staff Boogie
Ya'alon is widely expected to be Bibi Netanyahu's Defense
Minister in the government that Netanyahu will likely
announce next week. Ya'alon is something of a political
enigma in Israel since he has roots in the left but has
become known for his hardline views on Israel's security
needs and what he sees as the current impossibility of peace
with the Palestinians. Ya'alon is said to have a difficult
relationship with the current IDF Chief of General Staff,
Gabi Ashkenazi, but they share a tough view of the IDF's
responsibility to take military action if necessary to stop
Iran's development of a nuclear weapon. While some in the
Israeli peace camp think Ya'alon may show flexibility toward
restrictions on Palestinian movement and access in the West
Bank, others recall that he was the driving force behind
Operation Defensive Shield in 2002, and predict that he will
limit Netanyahu's flexibility. We also anticipate that
Ya'alon will adopt an even tougher posture toward Gaza than
Ehud Barak. End summary.


2. (C) According to most Israeli accounts, former IDF Chief
of General Staff, Lt General (res) Moshe (Boogie) Ya'alon is
Prime Minister-designate Netanyahu's leading choice as
Minister of Defense. Ya'alon is something of a political
enigma since he grew up on a kibbutz and has roots in the
political left, but is known for his hardline views on
Israel's security, including a strong conviction that further
territorial withdrawals would threaten Israel's survival. In
a conversation with PolCouns last year, Ya'alon said Israelis
must be prepared for at least another generation of
intermittent warfare since he believes that most Palestinians
do not accept Israel's existence and believe that constant
pressure, including terrorism, will eventually force Israel
to collapse. Ya'alon said the perception among many Arabs
that Iran is the rising regional power, along with an Arab
education system and media that inculcates the view that
Israel even within the 1967 borders is illegitimate and must
disappear, make peace impossible in the near term. Ya'alon
argued that any Israeli withdrawal from the West Bank under
current conditions would only result in that territory
becoming a staging area for attacks on Israel. During the
campaign for the January 2009 elections, Ya'alon expressed
opposition to possible Israeli withdrawal from the Golan
Heights as well.


3. (C) Yair Hirschfeld, the founder of the Tel Aviv-based
Economic Cooperation Foundation and one of the negotiators of
the Oslo Agreements, has challenged Ya'alon in public debates
about the peace process, but Hirschfeld was surprisingly
upbeat March 12 about a phone conversation he had just held
with Ya'alon. Hirschfeld told PolCouns that Ya'alon was
heavily focused on the Iranian threat, but also interested in
exploring whether Israel could develop a common approach
toward Iran with Egypt, Turkey and other regional states.
Hirschfeld said Ya'alon is opposed to pursuing permanent
status negotiations with the Palestinian Authority, but
largely because Ya'alon mistakenly believes that permanent
status negotiations would necessarily lead to near-term IDF
withdrawal from the West Bank.


4. (C) Hirschfeld's positive assessment of the conversation
was based on Ya'alon's comment that, as Defense Minister, he
would be willing to consider any reasonable proposal from ECF
for ways to reduce obstacles to Palestinian movement in the
West Bank and would strongly support a bottom-up approach to
developing the Palestinian security services and governing
institutions as long as the IDF retained overall security
responsibility. Hirschfeld also noted that while Ya'alon is
a security hardliner, he has no ideological or emotional
commitment to the settlement enterprise. Ya'alon and
Hirschfeld agreed that Netanyahu's government should focus on
changing Palestinian attitudes by making the West Bank a
model that Gazans will want to emulate.


5. (C) Former Deputy Defense Minister Efraim Sneh offered a
more pessimistic view of Ya'alon's attitudes during a March
13 meeting with the Ambassador. Sneh described Ya'alon as a
likely obstacle to Netanyahu's ability to adopt a flexible
approach toward the West Bank, although Sneh conceded the
Ya'alon would likely support efforts to improve the quality
of life for Palestinians on the West Bank. Sneh said that as
commander of the West Bank during the Second Intifada,
Ya'alon was insistent on the need to impose tough military
measures to control Palestinian movement and access. In
contrast to Hirschfeld's comments, Sneh said Ya'alon was
solicitous of the security concerns of the West Bank
settlers, who often quoted him when discussing security
issues with the Ministry of Defense. Sneh also described
Ya'alon as "uncorruptable;" Netanyahu would not be able to
buy his support by offering him budgetary benefits or
parliamentary perquisites.


6. (S) Comment: Ya'alon's abilities as a soldier and
commander are respected in the IDF, but he is known not to
have an easy relationship with Chief of General Staff Lt
General Gabi Ashkenazi. Ashkenazi served as Ya'alon's deputy
when Ya'alon was Chief of General Staff. Ashkenazi has been
quoted in the press as saying that an Israeli defense
minister should have political experience, perhaps reflecting
a concern that Ya'alon will be less politically adept than
Barak and more inclined to intervene in strictly military
matters. Ya'alon published a book last year in which he
harshly attacked his successor as IDF Chief of Staff, Dan
Halutz, who had already resigned due to the perceived command
failures in the Second Lebanon War. PM Olmert and others
have publicly questioned the professionalism of Ya'alon's
scornful references to Halutz in the book. Ashkenazi and
Ya'alon have a common view of the need for Israel to take
military action, alone if necessary, if economic pressures
fail to stop Iran's nuclear program. Ya'alon's hostility to
Hamas and record of aggressive responses to terrorism likely
portend a harsh posture toward Gaza, both with regard to
possible further Israeli military action and in terms of his
likely views on supporting humanitarian relief efforts.

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