REP. WEXLER DISCUSSES IRAN WITH IDF INTELLIGENCE

S E C R E T TEL AVIV 001060

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/13/2019
TAGS: PREL MPOS KNNP IR IS
SUBJECT: REP. WEXLER DISCUSSES IRAN WITH IDF INTELLIGENCE
CHIEF YADLIN

Classified By: DCM Luis G, Moreno, Reason 1.4 (b) (d)


1. (S) Representative Robert Wexler (D, Florida),
accompanied by Deputy Chief of Staff Joshua Rogin and DCM
Moreno, met with Israel Defense Forces Intelligence Chief, MG
Amos Yadlin, on Sunday 10 May 2009. MG Yadlin focused his
discussion on the preparations for the upcoming visit of
Prime Minister Netanyahu to the United States and the Iranian
nuclear program. MG Yadlin informed Rep. Wexler that the PM
was preparing intensely for his upcoming visit to Washington.
In addition to hours of policy review, the PM had been
provided significant amounts of intelligence from the IDI and
Mossad on Iran's nuclear program. The intelligence presented
included assessments of the current status of the Iranian
program; timelines, effects of sanctions; views of the
international community; and outcomes of engagement. The
differences that exist between the intelligence community in
interpretations of the Iranian nuclear program as well as the
relationship between Iran and the Palestinians were also
presented. MG Yadlin indicated that the IDF had presented
its information last week, leaving the cabinet on Friday 08
May 2009 to consider policy options and how information will
be presented during the upcoming visit to Washington.
Although no direct feedback was provided, MG Yadlin opined
that the PM appears determined on Iran.


2. (S) Rep. Wexler asked MG Yadlin to expand on the
differences in the interpretations of the intelligence. MG
Yadlin explained that until 2003, Iran had violated the
Nuclear Proliferation Treaty by having a weaponization group
and although Iran could show civilian uses for a missile
program and a fissile program, there was no justification for
a weaponization group. He went on to say that Iran halted
its program in 2003 after the invasion of Iraq, but
reinvigorated the program in 2005. He expressed that some in
the US agree with this and others do not. He went on to
explain that Israel is not in a position to underestimate
Iran and be surprised like the US was on 11 September 2001.


3. (S) MG Yadlin explained that Israel tries to be more
precise than the US in estimating Iran's intentions and
timeline for obtaining a nuclear bomb. Iran is in the
position of wanting to pay only a minimum cost for its
current program. It does not want to be North Korea or what
Iraq was before 2003. Iran intends to keep resolutions and
sanctions at a certain manageable level and continue to
produce low enriched uranium until there is enough for
several bombs. MG Yadlin stated that Iran could decide to
produce a bomb by 2010, but Iran is waiting for the right
time in the future and that there are some who will always
doubt it despite the evidence.


4. (S) Rep. Wexler then asked about the prospect of
engagement. MG Yadlin said he does not oppose engagement,
and in fact gave a speech approximately six months ago
expressing that Israel needed to find a way to find positives
in engagement. He feels there needs to be an agreed upon
deadline; a measure for success or failure; and a plan B if
engagement does not work in order for engagement to have any
chance. He also expressed strongly that engagement should
have already started. MG Yadlin outlined four possible
outcomes of engagement. Two good outcomes would be the
Iranian nuclear program stopped or a failure of engagement
that allows Russia and China to see the US made all efforts
to prevent the program diplomatically and allows for greater
cooperation in the future. Two bad outcomes would be Iran
playing for time with no claim of failure on the part of
engagement or a bad bargain that still allows Iran to obtain
a nuclear bomb even if in a longer timeline. Rep. Wexler
went on to discuss that there is a third good option in that
the President may have better leverage with the American
public to support action if engagement efforts are attempted
and failed. Rep Wexler recommended that the Israeli people
need to consider the US perspective and public opinion. MG
Yadlin responded that he is not recommending the US enter a
third front, but it has to be understood that Israel sees
things differently and that Israel has to be ready and can
not remove the military option from the table. Rep Wexler
stated that he expected Israel would be pleasantly surprised
by the President's acceptance of all possible options in
regards to Iran.

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