TFH01: BUSINESS LEADERS LUKEWARM ON POSSIBLE

C O N F I D E N T I A L TEGUCIGALPA 001058

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/19/2019
TAGS: PGOV ECON KDEM PREL PHUM HO OAS
SUBJECT: TFH01: BUSINESS LEADERS LUKEWARM ON POSSIBLE
AGREEMENT

Classified By: Ambassador Hugo Llorens for reasons 1.4 b/d.


1. (C) Summary: At an October 17 meeting, leading members
of the business community told the Ambassador and OAS
Ambassador John Biehl that they had reservations about a
proposed political accord that was agreed upon by
representatives of both President Zelaya and the de facto
regime before being rejected by de facto president
Micheletti. They expressed concern that members of Congress,
who under the accord would be responsible for deciding
whether to reinstate President Zelaya, were being paid off by
Zelaya. They advocated placing the decision in the hands of
the Supreme Court, a solution that had been proposed by the
Micheletti team and immediately rejected by the Zelaya team.
After a lengthy discussion, however, the business leaders
took the position that if the two sides agreed to a deal,
they would support it and urge Congress to assume its
responsibility and ably manage the issue. End summary.


2. (C) The Ambassador met with leading members of the
business community on October 17 to discuss the ongoing
negotiations between representatives of the Zelaya
administration and the de facto Micheletti government. OAS
Ambassador John Biehl also participated, as did the DCM,
Economic Counselor, and Consul General. Honduran
participants in the meeting included Amilcar Bulnes,
President of the Honduran Private Enterprise Council (COHEP);
Norman Garcia and Tony Tavel, both COHEP directors; Camilo
Atala, President of the Latin American Enterprise Council
(CEAL); Adolfo Facusse, President of the Association of
Industrialists (ANDI); Roque Rivera, president of the
Honduran Association of Banking Institutions (AHIBA); and
Aline Flores, President of the Tegucigalpa Chamber of
Commerce.


3. (C) The Ambassador and Ambassador Biehl presented a
detailed briefing on the negotiations. The Ambassador told
the group that the Zelaya and Micheletti negotiating teams
had agreed to a settlement whereby the National Congress
would decide whether President Zelaya would be returned to
office. However, when the agreement was taken to Micheletti
and his team for consideration, they rejected it, suggesting
instead that the Supreme Court be responsible for deciding on
Zelaya's fate (a non-starter for the Zelaya side, given the
court's agreement in his dismissal).


4. (C) The business community representatives expressed
fear over rumors that the Zelaya side was paying off many of
the 79 lame-duck legislators. Another concern was that there
would not be enough time to put into place an interim
government and a verification commission before the November
29 presidential elections. The business representatives
reiterated longstanding concerns about the damage that
President Zelaya and Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez could
do if the former were restored to office. The group also
worried that the Supreme Court could decide that the plan was
unconstitutional, resulting in a renewed state of crisis.
The consensus among them was that the Supreme Court rather
than the National Congress should be given responsibility for
deciding whether Zelaya would return to power.


5. (C) The Ambassador and Ambassador Biehl encouraged the
group to consider the advantages of a political solution to
the crisis rather than focusing on the potential downside.
The Ambassador said that a settlement would allow a return to
fully normalized relations following the inauguration of a
new government in January. Ambassador Biehl said that there
would be visits by a number of very senior officials in the
region following the agreement, in addition to the presence
of the members of the verification commission, which would be
comprised of eminent persons from a number of countries,
probably including the United States.


6. (C) The business representatives emphasized that they do
not see themselves as being in a position to influence either
the Micheletti faction or the Zelaya camp, which, they noted,
has very little contact with the business community. They
agreed, however, to respect any solution that resulted from
an agreement of the two sides, and to urge Congress to assume
its responsibility and ably manage the issue.
LLORENS