GEORGIA: WINTER LULL IN INCIDENTS ABRUPTLY ENDS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TBILISI 000096

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EUR/CARC

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/20/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL MOPS KBTS RU GG
SUBJECT: GEORGIA: WINTER LULL IN INCIDENTS ABRUPTLY ENDS

REF: A. 08 TBILISI 2495

B. HTTP://WWW.MFA.GOV.GE/INDEX.PHP?LANG_ID=ENG&S EC_I-
D=36&INFO_ID=8778

Classified By: Ambassador John F. Tefft for Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary and comment. After a few weeks of relative
calm over the holidays -- which saw several attacks, but no
injuries -- a number of serious incidents occurred along the
administrative boundaries with South Ossetia and Abkhazia in
recent days. On January 16 a Georgan police officer was
murdered in Knolevi, outside South Ossetia; on January 18 a
Georgian police officer was wounded near Khurcha, outside
Abkhazia; and on January 19 two Georgian police officers were
wounded in Dvani, outside South Ossetia. The Georgian
government is concerned that Russian forces may have
perpetrated some of the attacks and plans to suggest to
European missions that the EU Monitoring Mission (EUMM) be
strengthened, either with increased numbers or weapons.
Although the Georgian side has shown remarkable restraint in
not responding to these attacks in recent months, they did
return fire in the January 18 and 19 incidents, and it is
becoming harder for them to refrain from defending
themselves. Considering the February 15 end of UNOMIG's
mandate and the February 18 end of the OSCE monitoring
mission, with no immediate agreement permitting the
continuation of either yet in sight, the Georgian request for
additional help is understandable. End summary and comment.

"CALM" BEFORE THE STORM


2. (SBU) All three monitoring missions -- the EUMM, OSCE, and
UNOMIG -- have noted an absence of serious incidents in
recent weeks, attributing the relative quiet to both the
holidays and the cold weather. This sense of "quiet" can
only be defined by the lack of injuries, however; attacks
have continued. In all these instances, post is unaware of
cases in which the Georgian side has returned fire. On the
night of January 13-14, a number of rocket-propelled grenades
(RPGs) and small-arms fire were directed at a Georgian
Interior Ministry post near Khurcha from the Abkhaz side of
the administrative boundary; no one was injured. Likewise on
January 11 an explosive device, possibly an RPG, and
machine-gun and small-arms fire were directed from the South
Ossetian side of the administrative boundary at a Georgian
Interior Ministry post in Zemo Nikozi; no one was injured.
Some property damage was sustained by an Interior Ministry
post at Ganmukhuri on January 8 in an attack involving
roughly 15 automatic grenades and small-arms fire; no one was
injured. On January 4, an Interior Ministry post in
Ganmukhuri also came under attack, possibly by grenades and
small-arms fire; no one was injured.

THE STORM


3. (SBU) At 10:00 A.M. on January 16, an OSCE patrol visited
a Georgian Interior Ministry post in Knolevi, which is
between 500 and 800 meters from the South Ossetian
administrative boundary southwest of Tskhinvali. The
monitors heard a single "muffled shot" and saw a police
officer standing on the outside porch fall to the ground.
The Georgian side did not return fire. After taking steps to
protect themselves, the monitors then saw that 27-year-old
Mamuka Kakhniashvili had taken a single shot directly to the
heart and likely died instantly. They concluded that a
silenced sniper rifle could have been used in the attack.
Interior Ministry investigators later told them that the shot
QInterior Ministry investigators later told them that the shot
was likely taken from 200-250 meters away, and a 7.62mm
bullet was used. The Interior Ministry informed post that
two Russian MI-8 helicopters, as well as a Russian "Tiger"
all-terrain vehicle, were seen in the area, and suggested
that Russian forces may have been behind the attack. The
OSCE did not observe the helicopters, but did receive reports
of them in the area afterwards, and suggested that Russian
forces may have arrived to defuse tensions.


4. (SBU) At 5:00 A.M. on January 18, UNOMIG reported one RPG
and gunfire were directed at a Georgian Interior Ministry
post near Khurcha, on the Abkhaz administrative boundary;
Georgian officers returned fire. One police officer was
slightly wounded in the arm, either by shrapnel or a bullet.


5. (SBU) At 5:00 P.M. on January 19, the Interior Ministry
confirmed two of its vehicles -- a pickup truck and a COBRA
armored vehicle -- came under sustained fire while traveling
near Dvani, on the South Ossetian administrative boundary
southwest of Tskhinvali, and the Georgian officers returned

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fire. The OSCE determined that the attack originated in the
vicinity of Veleebi, northwest of Dvani on the Ossetian side
of the boundary; that a machine gun was likely used; and that
two Georgian officers were wounded. The driver of the pickup
received a serious wound in shoulder, and one other officer,
who was outside the vehicles, received a minor wound in the
leg. The Ministry reported that a "Tiger" vehicle was also
seen in the vicinity in this incident and again suggested
that Russian forces may have perpetrated the attack.

GOVERNMENT SEEKS INTERNATIONAL RESPONSE


6. (C) Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs Alexander Nalbandov
summoned the DCM on January 20 to express concern about these
recent incidents. He also indicated that the government
intends to summon representatives of all 16 European missions
resident in Tbilisi to deliver a similar message and to
request that the EUMM strengthen its mission in Georgia. In
particular, he suggested that the EUMM should increase the
number of monitors, or arm them. The Georgian Foreign
Ministry also released a public statement protesting Russia's
aggressive acts (ref B).

COMMENT: IS THE "RESPITE" OVER?


7. (C) Although even some Georgian officials expected the
holidays would provide a certain rest from the violence (ref
A),the shooting never really stopped, and now it seems the
targeting has become deliberate and malicious again.
Kakhniashvili's murder is particularly worrisome; a single
shot from a possibly silenced weapon at a few hundred yards
that hit the target directly in the heart is not the work f
a drunken militiaman, but of a focused professional killer.
Post has consistently urged the Georgian side to resist
provocation and avoid escalating the violence, and the lack
of response to most recent attacks, including on January 16,
indicates the Georgian side has tried hard to follow that
advice. Georgian officers did return fire on January 18 and
19, however; when under sustained attack, it is
understandably difficult for police officers to refrain from
defending themselves. Georgia's appeal to the international
community reflects the seriousness of these attacks and the
government's recognition of the difficulty of withstanding
them without outside help, especially in the face of a lack
of international agreement on the continuation of both UNOMIG
and OSCE missions, both of which face closure next month.
End comment.
TEFFT