GEORGIA: PROTESTS GEARING UP FOR MAY 26

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TBILISI 000945

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/21/2019
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL GG
SUBJECT: GEORGIA: PROTESTS GEARING UP FOR MAY 26

REF: TBILISI 937

Classified By: AMBASSADOR JOHN F. TEFFT. REASONS: 1.4 (B) AND (D).


1. (C) Summary: Protests remained small on May 20.
Utsnobi (Giorgi Gachechiladze) performed a rally concert in
Batumi to kick off the non-parliamentary opposition's plan to
bring "all of Georgia" to Tbilisi for a May 26 rally
(independence day parade). Post heard payments to protesters
have recently increased from 40-50 lari a night to 70 lari a
night. David Gamkrelidze (Alliance - Republicans) was
involved in a brief scuffle with police after a car
registered to his security guard was allegedly stopped and
impounded for speeding and reckless driving. Gamkrelidze and
Nino Burjanadze (Democratic Movement - United Georgia)
described the event as a "new wave of terror". Traffic
police confiscated some 60 cars involved with blocking the
airport road on May 20. Non-parliamentary leaders blocked
the two river roads for 40 minutes on May 21, as a result.
Pollster Jeremy Rosner briefed the Ambassador privately on
his protest-related polling data, which showed that while
ruling party numbers remain low, Saakashvili is still
enjoying 65% approval ratings and Alasania's popularity
numbers appear to have increased as a result of the protests.
End Summary.


2. (C) Comment: The apparent increase in payments to
protesters in the lead up to March 26 tends to indicate the
non-parliamentary opposition is placing its bets on the
planned Independence Day rally to be a game changer. Other
than preparing for the March 26 rally, the non-parliamentary
opposition seems to be content maintaining a holding pattern.
Meanwhile, the Rosner polling data tends to conform to
previous focus group data and anecdotal evidence that the
government's restrained reaction to the protests are helping
Saakashvili's rating and diminishing the non-parliamentary
opposition. Interestingly, Rosner's numbers seem to
correspond to our view that a large portion of the Georgian
electorate who is neither in the UNM nor non-parliamentary
opposition camps is looking for somebody to take a measured
approach and engage in dialogue. The current perception
appears to be that Alasania can fill that role and likely
explains his increase in popularity. If Alasania breaks and
engages in dialogue, he might find very few, if any, of his
non-parliamentary allies joining him, but a potentially
sizable number of the general electorate ready, willing, and
able to support him and his efforts. End Comment.

Protests Meager - Gamkrelidze Involved In Scuffle


3. (C) A group of non-parliamentary leaders headed by
Utsnobi and Levan Gachechiladze gave a concert in Batumi on
May 20 to kick off their "march on Tbilisi". A small group
of protesters remained in front of Parliament in Tbilisi.
More concerts are scheduled in western Georgia in the lead up
to May 26. Highlighting the growing frustration and split
among the non-parliamentary opposition, Kakha Kukava
(Conservatives) announced that the non-parliamentary
opposition needs to decide if it will engage in dialogue or
more radical actions, as uncertainty and indecision were
destroying the momentum of the protests. Meanwhile, rumor on
the street has the payment for staying overnight increasing
to 70 lari. An Embassy contact, who has a friend staying in
the cells confirmed price increases. While anecdotal, the
individual staying in the cells is not an opposition
supporter, says at night he gives his passport to a
non-parliamentary opposition representative, then collects it
in the morning to receive payment. This individual estimated
Qin the morning to receive payment. This individual estimated
that 100% of those currently at the protests were being
compensated. (Embassy Comment: The increase in payments
likely corresponds to the non-parliamentary opposition's
focus on a large turnout on May 26. End Comment.)


4. (C) At roughly 10am on May 20, patrol police stopped
Gamkrelidze's bodyguard who was allegedly driving well beyond
the speed limit and recklessly. Gamkrelidze said that
although the car was registered to his bodyguard, the car is
actually his, and the traffic stop was a result of political
retribution. Post spoke with Gamkrelidze directly who
offered a confused and unclear version of events. According
to press reports and news footage, Gamkrelidze heard about
the traffic stop and immediately proceeded to the impound
lot, sat in the patrol car and refused to leave. After
sitting in the car for an hour, Gamkrelidze was removed from
the patrol car a brief scuffle ensued. Gamkrelidze alleged
that the incident was only one in a massive MoIA crackdown
but, as of now, no other incidents have been reported. Nino
Burjanadze called the incident "political terror". According
to the press, Burjanadze also objected to the recent stopping
by patrol police of her son for a minor traffic violation.
The MoIA for its part called Gamkrelidze's version of events
a "complete falsehood".


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5. (C) The traffic police temporarily seized 60 vehicles
that blocked the airport road on May 19. The
non-parliamentary opposition gave the GoG a deadline to
release the vehicles and threatened to close off main
highways if the GoG does not comply and followed through on
their threat, closing the river roads for roughly 40 minutes
on Thursday afternoon, May 21. MoIA representatives told
Poloff that the vehicles have been available to be picked up.
According to the MoIA, owners only need to present their
documents of ownership and pay the administrative fine.

Parliamentary Opposition - Quietly Moving Forward on Reform
Agenda


6. (C) The Christian Democratic Party, Paata Davitaia (We
Ourselves),and MP Gia Tortladze announced that they agreed
that a draft of the new constitution should be prepared by
December 31, 2009 and work should start immediately. The
group said that although Saakashvili had offered the
chairmanship of the constitutional committee to an agreed
upon opposition figure, the parliamentary minority group said
they intended to nominate a well-respected non-partisan legal
expert to chair the commission. Possible nominees included
former chairpersons of the Constitutional Court, Avtandil
Demetrashvili and Joni Khetsuriani.

Rosner Briefs Ambassador


7. (C) Jeremy Rosner of the political consulting firm
Quinlan, Greenburg, and Rosner which is under contract with
the UNM briefed the Ambassador privately on the latest
polling numbers that he has prepared for the Government
(please fully protect this proprietary information). In
general, previous drops in popularity for Saakashvili and the
UNM had leveled out with Saakashvili's personal job approval
rating at 65%. A hypothetical presidential poll gives
Saakashvili vote in the high 30s, Alasania around 15% with
Giorgi Targamadze (Christian Democratic Movement) slightly
behind Alasania. Burjanadze's numbers were the lowest among
those polled. Rosner attributed Alasania's numbers to him
finding a temporary sweet spot, engaging in protests has not
damaged him politically, and his more reasonable rhetoric has
set him apart from the other non-parliamentary leaders.
Saakashvili and the GoG are also getting credit for reaching
out to the non-parliamentary opposition, and showing patience
with the protests. According to Rosner, Targamadze has lost
a little ground for being too passive and having been
generally sidelined during the protests. Few view the
protests as being successful, and the poll shows that the
public has a general negative reaction towards them.
Georgians view their individual economic situation as
improving slightly, up three percent from last poll, and now
view security and stability as their major concern. The poll
also reflects the large difference of opinion between Tbilisi
and the rest of the country where Saakashvili's numbers are
up as a whole but down 11% in Tbilisi. Rosner believed the
key issue for Saakashvili and the GoG was to make good on
promises of increased democracy.
TEFFT