GEORGIA: PROTESTS - NON-PARLIAMENTARY OPPOSITION

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TBILISI 000920

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/15/2019
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL GG
SUBJECT: GEORGIA: PROTESTS - NON-PARLIAMENTARY OPPOSITION
RIFT WIDENS

REF: TBILISI 911

Classified By: AMBASSADOR JOHN F. TEFFT. REASONS: 1.4 (B) AND (D).


1. (C) Summary: The non-parliamentary opposition's pledge
to unblock the road in front of the Georgian Public
Broadcaster (GPB) was rescinded, then reinstated and finally
implemented early May 14. The back and forth highlighted the
now open and obvious rift within the leadership of the
non-parliamentary opposition. Nino Burjanadze (Democratic
Movement - United Georgia) and her supporters, in a direct
challenge to Irakli Alasania (Alliance),managed to keep the
road closed at least temporarily; she told the DCM that the
"people" in the "cells" had refused to move because this
would be a "step backwards." However, later Alasania,
apparently backed by Levan Gachechiladze, won the day and
moved the "cells" off of the road. Two major TV stations
announced they would not cover the corridor of shame that the
opposition was forcing GPB journalists to pass through en
route to work, expressing solidarity with their fellow
journalists. A crowd of about 1000 gathered in front of
Parliament May 14, but no other plans were announced. In a
meeting with a visiting Council on Foreign Relations
delegation, Alasania announced his willingness to enter into
a dialogue and drop his calls for Saakashvili's resignation;
he expects that the protests and street closures would end by
May 26. GoG democracy point man Corrections Minister Dmitri
Shashkin told visiting EUR/ACE Director Rosenblum that the
Government was waiting for the non-parliamentary opposition
to respond to the President's concrete offers of reform, but
would move ahead soon with or without them. Salome
Zourabichvili (Georgia's Way) accused President Saakashvili
of a disinformation campaign, claiming Ambassador Tefft
verified as much. End Summary.


2. (C) Comment: Burjanadze and her supporters appear to be
fighting a rear-guard action against Alasania and his efforts
to move toward a more moderate position. Privately,
Burjanadze has been undercutting Alasania within the
non-parliamentary opposition leadership, but the May 14
events represent an open and public challenge. With various
leaders publicly exchanging words, contradicting one another,
and challenging each other's authority, the deep animosities
and rifts among the non-parliamentary group are heating up
and approaching a public boiling point. Alasania appears to
be walking back from demands of the President's resignation
to a more realistic and pragmatic position. However,
Burjanadze, who has gambled her political future on the
success of these protests, is looking increasingly desperate.
Despite the growing rifts in the non-parliamentary
opposition ranks, it appears that the end game may drag on
for a while longer. End Comment.

Private Disagreements Become Public


3. (C) In a challenge to Alasania's announcement that the
non-parliamentary opposition would clear Kostava Street on
May 15 (in front of the Georgian Public Broadcaster),
Burjanadze led her supporters to the Public Broadcaster and
forced Levan Gachechiladze and others to back down, leaving
the cells in place. Alasania responded by telling protesters
to respect the non-parliamentary leaders' decisions. Later,
Burjanadze told the DCM that she had gone to Kostava Street
in response to the "people in the cells" who had refused to
leave the street since this would have been a "step
backwards." Apparently as a result of a subsequent
non-parliamentary opposition meeting, the cells were removed
early Friday morning. Burjanadze left the meeting early,
Qearly Friday morning. Burjanadze left the meeting early,
filmed on tv visibly furious; she refused to speak to the
press for the first time in recent memory. A chance meeting
in the Marriott lobby between Burjanadze and Alasania
(witnessed by PolOff) provided further evidence of the
extreme animosity between the two. Burjanadze glaed in
disgust when she saw Alasania, who returned the look of
contempt. Despite being only three feet apart, the two did
not speak to each other.

Plans Still Not Apparent


4. (C) The internal disagreements among the
non-parliamentary opposition resulted in no further
statements about their intentions. The "corridor of shame"
will be maintained in front of the Public Broadcasters, and
daily meetings will continue to take place at 5pm in front of
Parliament, but no other plans have been announced.
Providing no further clarity, David Usupashvili (Alliance -
Republicans) said that the non-parliamentary opposition had
discussed their still-unannounced action plan with a group of
experts, who "found it less radical than they expected."
Usupashvili did not disclose either the action plan or who
constituted the experts. In a show of solidarity with
Journalists from the Public Broadcasters, Rustavi 2 and Imedi

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announced that they would no longer report on protests in
front of the Public Broadcaster Building. A statement read
that "(w)e believe that any type of pressure exerted on
journalists and impeding their work, no matter by whom, is
unacceptable."

Alasania Takes Another Cautious Step


5. (C) Alasania, in comments to a Council on Foreign
Relations delegation, said that he hoped the streets would be
cleared by May 26 and the process would move to the
negotiation table; he looked forward to another session with
the government. This position put him squarely at odds with
the stated plans of the non-parliamentary opposition.
Alasania acknowledged the discrepancy, noting that some
elements of the opposition did not believe in negotiation; he
admitted that pronouncements on April 9 of unending protests
until Saakashvili resigned were a mistake, and he explained
that now the opposition just needed to find a way out. In
terms of basic demands, he said he would be satisfied with
early parliamentary elections and would not insist on early
presidential ones. When asked about a possible timeline for
parliamentary elections, Alasania said he would not insist on
a specific date; the most important thing would be for key
reforms to be implemented first, such as a new election code,
a new electoral commission, and monitoring of the Ministry of
Internal Affairs, so that the elections would be legitimate.
Nevertheless, he expected a clear and public commitment from
the government to early elections once those reforms were in
place.


6. (C) When asked whom he was speaking for, Alasania replied
the Alliance (as opposed to the whole non-parliamentary
opposition). In discussing the events of May 6 at the police
station, Alasania called them damaging for the opposition and
said they needed to move away from confrontation.
Acknowledging that some elements did want to escalate the
situation, he said he would distance himself publicly from
those elements, if necessary. At this point, however, he
thought he could do more good inside the full group.
(Comment: Not only the substance, but the forum for
Alasania's comments represents another step away from the
rest of the opposition and toward potential compromise. A
conversation with a private, non-governmental organization
like the Council falls somewhere between a private exchange
with the Embassy and a public pronouncement. His new demands
largely correspond to what the GoG has said it is willing to
offer. The fact that he made clear that he spoke for the
Alliance, not the united opposition, suggests that he
realizes he is moving away from a position that many
opposition leaders will accept. End Comment.)


7. (C) During a May 14 meeting with visiting EUR/ACE
Coordinator Dan Rosenblum, GoG Democracy Point Man and
Corrections Minister Dmitri Shashkin reviewed the concrete
offers that the President had put on the table for the
opposition, both from within the Parliament and from the
non-parliamentary opposition, to consider. He said that the
Government had wanted to give the opposition a chance to
study the proposals, but planned to begin real discussions as
early as this coming weekend. Shashkin said that the plan
was for Speaker Bakradze to publicly announce the start of
discussions regarding a constitutional commission -- and to
see who agreed to come. He fully expected the parliamentary
opposition to take part; he was less certain about which
non-parliamentary leaders might participate.

It's Left or Right but Not Down the Middle


8. (C) MP Peter Mamradze (For a Fair Georgia - Noghaideli's
Q8. (C) MP Peter Mamradze (For a Fair Georgia - Noghaideli's
Party) told Poloff that he hoped Alasania's performance on a
May 13 episode of the BBC's Hardtalk program, which Mamradze
described as utterly embarrassing (and luckily in English, so
most Georgians would not see it),would shake some sense into
him. Mamradze said that Alasania's position as being for
dialogue while calling for Saakashvili's resignation was
absurd and simply insulted everybody's intelligence.
According to Mamradze, there were only two choices:
meaningful political dialogue or street confrontation, and
Alasania needed to decide quickly in which camp he resided.
Giorgi Targamadze (Christian Democrats) told Poloff they have
been sending Alasania the same message. (Embassy Comment:
Alasania is no fan of Targamadze, but has a good relationship
with CDM MP Nika Laliashvili, who has been trying to get
Alasania to the negotiating table. End Comment.) Targamadze
said that he understood Alasania's reluctance to break from
the non-parliamentary opposition for fear of an all out
attack and attempt to destroy his political career.
Targamadze (who is held in contempt by most of the
non-parliamentary opposition leaders) said that Alasania
might as well pursue his own path, since Burjanadze and
others would attack him anyway. Targamadze said Alasanias

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pursuit of the middle route would ultimately only serve to
upset non-parliamentary supporters and supporters of dialogue
alike, leaving him unpopular among all voting constituencies.
In Targamadze's opinion, the only rational political choice
was to break and pursue dialogue.

Salome Attacks the Ambassador


9. (C) Salome Zourabichvili (Georgia's Way) caused a bit of a
stir May 14 when she accused the Ambassador of both being
duped by and perpetuating Saakashvili's alleged efforts to
run a disinformation campaign against her and other
opposition leaders. Zourabichvili said that Saakashvili told
foreign diplomats that Zourabichvili participated in the
recent riot at a women's prison. (Embassy Note: Minister of
Corrections and Legal Aid, Dmitri Shashkin told the
Ambassador that Zourabichvili and others were caught on MoIA
intercepts talking to inmates inside the prison encouraging
them to riot. End Note.) Zourabichvili cornered the
Ambassador at a recent event, accused Saakashvili of passing
him the information, and the Ambassador participating in a
disinformation campaign against her. The Ambassador did not
engage an irate Zourabichvili other than to suggest they
discuss any issues she had in a more proper, private forum.
Zourabichvili declined. The Embassy issued a statement in
response refusing to comment on private talks.
TEFFT