GEORGIA: PROTESTS: NEGOTIATIONS TO BEGIN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TBILISI 000899

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/11/2019
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL GG
SUBJECT: GEORGIA: PROTESTS: NEGOTIATIONS TO BEGIN

REF: TBILISI 0894

Classified By: AMBASSADOR JOHN F. TEFFT. REASONS: 1.4 (B) AND (D).


1. (C) Summary: Protests continued through the weekend,
bu with no major incidents. The one month anniversary of
the start of the protests on Saturday, May 9 drew what might
have been as many as 15,000 protesters on a beautiful sunny
day. On Friday, May 8, Speaker Bakradze met with a group of
deputy leaders from the non-parliamentary opposition after
Irakli Alasania backed out of a previously agreed upon
meeting. According to Bakradze, the non-parliamentary group
only wanted to discuss technical details about meeting with
Saakashvili or Saakashvili's resignation, offering nothing of
substance. In the early hours of Sunday morning, President
Saakashvili agreed to meet both the non-parliamentary and
parliamentary opposition on Monday afternoon at 2 pm and
4:30pm local time, respectively. We asked the Ministry of
Internal Affairs to comment on observations made by the EU
Ambassador that the three young opposition activists were
beaten while being detained in connection with the beating of
a Georgia Public Broadcaster journalist. According to the
MOIA, the activists were battered and bruised when they
arrived at the police station. End Summary.


2. (C) Comment: The non-parliamentary opposition's
decision to send its second string to the meeting with
Bakradze was clearly meant to be a slight rather than a
good-faith beginning to negotiations. Bakradze was
disappointed, particularly in Alasania with whom Bakradze
thought he had a good faith deal to begin negotiations.
Despite the obvious public slight, Bakradze held the meeting.
Regarding Saakashvili's decision to meet with the
opposition, some leaders are claiming success, and touting
their strength. However, from our vantage point, the
non-parliamentary opposition seems as divided and confused
than ever. Some leaders appear to want a negotiated way out,
while others seem unwilling to compromise. A positive sign
is that Levan Gachechiladze -- who is publicly viewed as a
key leader -- has been quietly talking to GoG interlocutors
about bringing the protests to an end. Our GoG contacts seem
calm and determined to let this play out, confident that with
every day in the street the non-parliamentary opposition
loses credibility and its internal fissures become more
exacerbated. Despite the talks, the non-parliamentary
radicals vow to continue the protests. The planned meetings
represent a significant step forward and we will continue to
push all sides to negotiate in good faith. End Comment.

Protests Still Modest - Bakradze Meeting Not Productive


3. (C) Only Saturday, May 9 drew a significant crowd of
approximately 15,000 on the one month anniversary of the
beginning of protests (which was also Victory in Europe Day).
Speeches ranged from defiant to the conciliatory. No new
initiatives or policies were discussed with speeches largely
focused on Saakashvili. Despite what Speaker David Bakradze
thought was Irakli Alasania's word to meet without
preconditions, Alasania backed out at the last minute,
leaving a team of lesser known individuals to meet the
Speaker. (Embassy Note: Having spoken with both
individuals, our understanding was that Alasania had agreed
to meet Bakradze alone if he could not convince others in the
non-parliamentary opposition to compromise. End Note.) The
team included Gubaz Sanikidze (National Forum),Tina
Khidasheli (Republicans and wife of David Usupashvili),
QKhidasheli (Republicans and wife of David Usupashvili),
Viktor Dolidze (Alasania's team and former Ambassador to
OSCE),and Koka Guntsadze (Independent). Sanikidze had early
stated that "those who do not participate in the protest
actions are stinking corpses" and announced the
non-parliamentary opposition had a retribution list and would
"devastate" the families of police officers loyal to the GoG
when they came to power. Despite having a reputation as a
moderate, Bakradze told the Ambassador that Dolidze was the
most aggressive of the four.


4. (C) Bakradze outlined the offers and areas in which the
GoG was willing to negotiate. Bakradze told the Ambassador
that the non-parliamentary group was not authorized to speak
about anything of substance, and apparently told Bakradze the
only thing they would discuss was the logistics regarding a
meeting with Saakashvili. Bakradze told the Ambassador that
he had spoken with Alasania and informed him that the GoG
would negotiate with the larger non-parliamentary opposition
instead of him personally. (Embassy Comment: Alasania had
numerous chances to break out and play the major role in
negotiating with the GoG. By choosing to remain part of the
larger non-parliamentary group, Alasania, whose professed
goal was to initiate serious democratic changes, increasingly
appears to be just another voice in a group that is mainly
focused on demanding Saakashvili's resignation and has yet to

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put forward any coherent vision for positive democratic
change. End Comment.)

Misha Agrees to Meet


5. (C) Late May 10, Saakashvili's office announced that the
President would meet with the non-parliamentary and
parliamentary opposition in separate meetings at the new MoIA
building. The non-parliamentary opposition was scheduled to
meet at 2 pm local time and the parliamentary opposition at
4:30 pm local time. Non-parliamentary leaders scheduled to
attend include Alasania, Gachechiladze, Salome Zourabichvili
(Georgia's Way),and Kakha Shartava (National Forum).
Immediately, several non-parliamentary leaders expressed
their unwillingness to discuss anything but Saakashvili's
resignation in the meetings. Nino Burjanadze made a terse
statement saying that no compromise was acceptable and only
Saakashvili's resignation would be discussed. Tina
Khidasheli said that she wanted to be "maximally optimistic"
that Saakashvili would see the light and resign. She
returned to hard-line statements that only regime change was
acceptable. Other leaders issued similar statements, leaving
no room for compromise. In fact, Bakradze told the
Ambassador that Burjanadze was working behind the scenes at
every turn to undercut those who would compromise. For his
part, Saakashvili issued a statement reaffirming his
readiness to meet with any political force and expressed hope
their joint efforts could overcome existing problems.

GoG Appears Calm, Philosophical


6. (C) Speaker Bakradze met with a visiting Codel on May 8
and explained that the legacy of the Rose revolution gives
some legitimacy to the idea of fighting political battles in
the streets rather than Parliament, but drew a distinction
between Georgia under Shevardnadze and the current political
situation in Georgia. Bakradze said the GoG's goal was to
de-legitimize the idea that holding constant street protests
and delivering ultimatums was an effective way to engage in
politics. Bakradze said the GoG's goal was to break the
cycle rather than come to some sort of temporary truce that
would only kick the problem down the road. He was also frank
about November 7, 2007, saying the GoG needed to exercise
extreme patience in light of its past mistakes.


7. (C) Head of the Foreign Affairs Committee, Akaki
Minashvili (UNM) told Poloff that the GoG would continue to
be patient. Minashvili expressed his view that the protests
were waning, and the general public was tired of it.
Minashvili thought that everyday the non-parliamentary
opposition continued to protest, it decreased in stature and
became more divided. Minashvili said the non-parliamentary
opposition was trapped by raising the expectation that they
could force Saakashvili to resign but now were well aware
that they could not deliver on that promise. According to
Minashvili, the GoG expected the process to play out like it
had thus far, and called it an essential step that Georgia
needed to pass to normalize and consolidate democracy.


8. (C) EU Ambassador to Georgia Per Eklund told the
Ambassador that he met with the three young opposition
activists who had been detained in connection with the
beating of a Georgia Public Broadcaster journalist and who
were the cause of the May 6 opposition attack on a police
station. According to Eklund, all three activists showed
bruises that Eklund believed were a result of mistreatment
during detention. We have asked senior levels at the
Ministry of Internal Affairs for a reaction to Ambassador
QMinistry of Internal Affairs for a reaction to Ambassador
Eklund's observations. MOIA Spokesman Utiashvili told us
that the activists appeared battered and bruised when they
arrived at the police station. He said that the bruises came
from their scuffle with the journalist and their attack on
two police cars before they were arrested (windows were
broken). According to Utiashvili, force was also required to
apprehend the three. In his view, the force used was
"appropriate" and he maintained that no force was required or
exerted upon them after their arrival at the police station.
TEFFT