Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
09TBILISI858
2009-05-05 13:31:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Tbilisi
Cable title:  

GEORGIA: ESCALATION OF PROTESTS POSTPONED AFTER

Tags:  PGOV PHUM PREL GG 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXRO6445
OO RUEHDBU RUEHFL RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHNP RUEHROV RUEHSR
DE RUEHSI #0858/01 1251331
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
O 051331Z MAY 09
FM AMEMBASSY TBILISI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 1512
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEKJCS/OSD WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RHEHAAA/NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TBILISI 000858 

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/05/2019
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL GG
SUBJECT: GEORGIA: ESCALATION OF PROTESTS POSTPONED AFTER
TANK BATTALION MUTINY

REF: A. TBILISI 850

B. TBILISI 852

C. TBILISI 857

Classified By: AMBASSADOR JOHN F. TEFFT. REASONS: 1.4 (B) AND (D).

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TBILISI 000858

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/05/2019
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL GG
SUBJECT: GEORGIA: ESCALATION OF PROTESTS POSTPONED AFTER
TANK BATTALION MUTINY

REF: A. TBILISI 850

B. TBILISI 852

C. TBILISI 857

Classified By: AMBASSADOR JOHN F. TEFFT. REASONS: 1.4 (B) AND (D).


1. (C) Summary: The non-parliamentary opposition told the
press that it intends to escalate the protests by blocking
major roads into Tbilisi between 4pm and 5pm local time on
Tuesday, May 5. Non-parliamentary leaders intend to give
President Saakashvili 72 hours to resign or else they will
continuously block all major highways, and entry points. GoG
interlocutors tell us they do not intend to stop the
protesters on Tuesday, but would not allow protesters to
block entry points or major highways. Meanwhile, Irakli
Alasania (Alliance) has been speaking privately with
Parliamentary Speaker Bakradze and agreed in principle to a
framework to enter negotiations. Protesters remained in very
small number (300-500) in front of Parliament and the Public
Broadcasters Building. At mid-day on May 5, the opposition
announced that it would postpone the escalation of the
protests (to wit, the blocking of major highways leading into
Tbilisi),in light of the mutiny at the tank battalion base
in Mukhravani. Soon after, major opposition leaders,
including Alasania, went to the press to accuse the
Government of staging the "virtual uprising" in order to
obstruct opposition plans. End Summary.


2. (C) Comment: We anticipate that tensions will rise
among the non-parliamentary opposition if Alasania sticks to
his promise and agrees to enter negotiations since all others
as of now, apart from perhaps David Usupashvili (Republicans
- Alliance),appear to have made the choice to try to bring
President Saakashvili down by bringing the country to a
standstill. MoIA was prepared to permit a one hour blockage
of roads, but views shutting down major highways, and border
crossings as a red line so if/when the blockages occurs, the
police would likely intervene. EU Ambassadors, EU
representative Peter Semneby, and the Ambassador have
expressed their views publicly and privately to
non-parliamentary leaders that dialogue is the only solution
and major road blockages are dangerus, an illegal
escalation, and would be viewed as such. End Comment.


Protests Down to Next To Nothing - Escalation to Ensue - MoIA
Will Respond


3. (C) The protests have become more sparsely attended both
by protesters and leaders alike, indicating a broad though
unspoken acknowledgment among the non-parliamentary
opposition and their supporters that the protests have run
their course, and are unlikely to bring about Saakashvili's
resignation. Alasania told the Ambassador that members of
the group were now trying to out-radical each other and that
Nino Burjanadze was working behind the scenes to undermine
him, leading the charge against any compromise. Alasania
said members of the National Forum (a relatively obscure
opposition party),were among the most radical pushing for
confrontation. National Forum leader, Gubaz Sanikidze stated
on Tuesday night on Kavkasia TV that if the GoG broke up the
protests, an armed revolt would follow. Early, Tuesday
morning, protesters assaulted and beat a journalist in front
of the Public Broadcasters building and according to reports,
the protesters are becoming increasingly aggressive.
Speaker Bakradze told the Ambassador that the GoG would
permit the opposition to conduct a one hour blockage (so it
would likely further damage the opposition's standing in the
Qwould likely further damage the opposition's standing in the
country),but not allow protesters to bring the country to a
stand still and that the GoG would ensure that major highways
and ports of entry would remain open. Mid-afternoon May 5,
the opposition decided to postpone its plans to expand the
protests and block major highways in light of the tank mutiny
crisis in Mukhravani.

Alasania Still Talking Compromise and Dialogue - Will Actions
Follow?


4. (C) Alasania and Bakradze told the Ambassador separately
that a meeting had taken place on Sunday evening and general
agreement had been reached between the two on moving
negotiations forward. Alasania would not call for
Saakashvili's resignation, but would call for pre-term
elections using a phrase along the lines of "when the time is
appropriate" which would give Alasania wiggle room, leave a
main demand on the table, and take ultimatums of the
President's resignation out of the equation. Other areas
Alasania would put forth were Constitutional changes to
strengthen Parliament vis-a-vis the President; Electoral Code
changes (and possible early elections to follow). Alasania
said that David Usupashvili (Republicans - Alliance) was on

TBILISI 00000858 002 OF 002


board in principle albeit privately, other "ally" David
Gamkrelidze (New Rights - Alliance) was not supportive but
would not stand in the way of negotiation. Bakradze told the
Ambassador the same, calling the meeting "positive".
Bakradze said that he would be in touch with Alasania
regarding going public with the initiative after Alasania met
with other non-parliamentary opposition leaders. Alasania
was due to present his case to the other leaders on Monday
night, May 4 and had planned to make a public announcement
either on Tuesday, May 5, or Wednesday, May 6. Alasania met
with the opposition group again May 5 to try to convince them
to negotiate, but talks were suspended due to the tank mutiny
crisis in Mukhravani. When the Ambassador spoke to Alasania
following the meeting, Alasania said that he would delay his
announcement until things clarify about the tank battalion
mutiny.

Patriarch Has Meeting - All Agree Dialogue Only Solution


5. (C) The Georgian Patriarch had an audience, organized by
the Papal Nuncio to discuss the current protest situation May

4. The Patriarch called for dialogue, unity, and compromise.
The Ambassador repeated his call for dialogue, and expressed
his personal concern that blocking highways, ports, and other
infrastructure represented an unfortunate and illegal
escalation which would only provoke a confrontation,
highlighting the potential danger for the average Georgian.
After the Ambassador expressed his views, a number of other
EU Ambassadors rose to echo his points. (Embassy Comment:
EU Ambassadors and their representatives have been telling us
privately, and telling non-parliamentary leaders the same
message. End Comment.) From Brussels, Peter Semneby said
that his position on picketing was the same - that protests
should be taken out of the streets and disputes should be
resolved through the political process.
TEFFT