GEORGIA: PROTESTS CONTINUE - NO NEGOTIATIONS FOR

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TBILISI 000850

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/04/2019
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL GG
SUBJECT: GEORGIA: PROTESTS CONTINUE - NO NEGOTIATIONS FOR
NOW

REF: TBILISI 0842

Classified By: AMBASSADOR JOHN F. TEFFT. REASONS: 1.4 (B) AND (D).


1. (C) Summary: Protests continued through the weekend
although crowds only numbered around 500-1500. Roads
remained blocked by "cells" and the opposition announced that
more disruptions are being planned. A May 2 concert
featuring Levan Gachechiladze's brother, Utsnobi ("Unknown"
or "Anonymous") failed to draw much of a crowd. EU
representative Peter Semneby spent the weekend in Tbilisi
trying to bring some opposition members to the negotiating
table, but was unable to do so. Indications are that Irakli
Alasania is willing to consider the idea of a negotiated
settlement and is working toward building some consensus
among the non-parliamentary opposition. We understand that
Alasania met Parliamentary Speaker Bakradze May 3 to discuss
a way out. GoG-organized focus groups show decreasing
support for the non-parliamentary opposition but also, no
support (including from Government supporters) for using
force to stop the protests. The Ambassador urged Minister of
Internal Affairs Vano Merabishvili, to continue to exercise
restraint. The Ambassador also met with Nino Burjanadze who
conceded that the protests have not being going as well as
hoped, but showed little willingness to negotiate. End
Summary.


2. (C) Comment: Despite Peter Semneby's efforts, there is
little indication that the non-parliamentary opposition is
currently willing to negotiate. Irakli Alasania (Alliance)
appears to be contemplating a move but has not been able to
attract any other leader to join him. For now, at least, the
non-parliamentary opposition is considering further
roadblocks, appearing to hope that further inconveniencing
the public will somehow bring different political results.
Alasania wants political cover but there are few, if any
signs, that other non-parliamentary leaders are willing to
negotiate. Indeed, most seem to be unwilling to confront
what Post and the EU are hearing, and GoG focus groups show -
that the non-parliamentary opposition is losing support by
the day. The possibility of creating more roadblocks and
"cell" cities is a negative development; nevertheless, we
continue to push for all sides to engage in meaningful
dialogue. End Comment.

Protests Numbers Still Small - Escalation Discussed


3. (C) The protesters numbered around 500-1500 Friday, May
1, Saturday, May 2, and Sunday May 3, despite a free concert
given by Utsnobi. Sunday grew an especially small crowd that
Embassy observers estimated at 100-200 in front of
Parliament. In spite of the numbers, the non-parliamentary
opposition remains defiant. Kakha Kukhava (Conservatives)
announced that no change in strategy was needed as the
rallies had been a success. Salome Zourabichvili (Georgia's
Way) called for a new April 9 to combat GoG claims that
support was waning. Although no further pickets or
roadblocks have been set up, non-parliamentary leaders are
considering blocking major roads into Tbilisi on May 5, as
well as setting up cells in front of the new City Hall.
Protests are scheduled to continue May 4.

GoG Still Patient - Watching Focus Groups


4. (C) The Ambassador spoke to Minister of the Interior,
Vano Merabishvili, on Friday May 1, and commended the GoG's
restraint and patience in handling the protests so far. The
Ambassador also cautioned Merabishvili about using force to
dislodge protesters. (Embassy Note: The Ambassador
Qdislodge protesters. (Embassy Note: The Ambassador
delivered the same message to Deputy Foreign Minister Giga
Bokeria. End Note.) Merabishvili told the Ambassador that
MOIA would continue to allow protests as long as they were
peaceful, and wished to avoid any use of force. Merabishvili
(and other GoG contacts) said its focus groups showed
widespread dissatisfaction with the non-parliamentary
opposition. The GoG was given relatively good marks for its
handling of the situation. Nonetheless, even UNM supporters
did not support using force to dislodge the protesters,
something according to Merabishvili, something the GoG had
taken to heart. Our GoG interlocutors believe that at least
a number of non-parliamentary opposition leaders are looking
for violence.

Alasania Again Flirting with Dialogue - Moderation


5. (C) According to the EU's Peter Semneby, Alasania is
planning to present a new negotiating strategy to the other
opposition leaders at a "make or break" meeting. Semneby
told the Ambassador that Alasania was looking for political
cover. Semneby spent the weekend talking to various

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non-parliamentary opposition members who did not seem to be
on the same page as Alasania regarding negotiations. Semneby
reported that it took over an hour to get Levan Gachechiladze
to concede that "negotiations are not inconceivable".
Semneby also told non-parliamentary opposition leaders
bluntly that blocking more roads was "monumentally stupid".
Alasania, despite his apparent willingness to negotiate and
public statement reiterating his desire to engage in
dialogue, has avoided a long planned meeting with Speaker
Bakradze, one in which he told the Ambassador he would have
late last week. We understand that the meeting finally took
place May 3. (Embassy Comment: Any willingness to negotiate
must be viewed as a positive sign. Alasania will likely
faces an uphill climb to find any likely partners in the
current non-parliamentary group who are willing to join him.
End Comment.)

Nino Burjanadze - Lost


6. (C) The Ambassador met with Nino Burjanadze (Democratic
Movement - United Georgia) for a frank discussion about the
protests. Burjanadze admitted the protests had not worked
yet, and in between angry monologues about Saakashvili,
seemed to understand the Ambassador's point of view that the
cell cities, the violence (perpetrated by the opposition),
paying for protesters, and unwillingness to negotiate was
further damaging her image. Burjanadze lamented that she had
to work with such a group of idiots (the non-parliamentary
opposition) who thought the cells were a good idea. She
returned to the idea that Saakashvili forced her into her
current predicament, taking no responsibility for her own
complicityin her radical turn. Burjanadze refused to
entertain negotiations and reiterated her one demand, but
could not articulate any strategy to bring about
Saakashvili's resignation. Burjanadze repeated that polls,
focus groups, and PR machines (the GoG) do not represent
actual Georgian opinion, preferring like most in the
non-parliamentary opposition to believe her gut feelings.
Nevertheless, Burjanadze conceded that the opposition does
not look good but would not back down from its sole demand.
(Embassy Comment: Burjanadze conceded little but was clearly
in a dour, somber mood not indicative of high confidence of
success. The Director of the Georgian Intelligence Service,
Gela Bezhuashvili described her as "lost". End Comment.)
TEFFT