GEORGIA: PROTEST UPDATE - NO IDEAS, NO PROTESTERS,

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TBILISI 000809

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/25/2018
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL GG
SUBJECT: GEORGIA: PROTEST UPDATE - NO IDEAS, NO PROTESTERS,
STILL NO COMPROMISE

REF: TBILISI 800

Classified By: AMBASSADOR JOHN F. TEFFT. REASONS: 1.4 (B) AND (D).


1. (C) Summary: Protests on Monday, April 27 which were
supposed to include announcement of a new action plan
consisted of no more than 1000 protesters in front of
Parliament and a few more scattered at the Presidential
Residence, Public Broadcasters Building, State Chancellery,
and Freedom Square. A concert is scheduled for Tuesday,
April 28, but a meeting with Levan Gachechildze revealed that
the non-parliamentary opposition has not come to any
decisions as to how to move forward. Gachechildze hinted at
a willingness to talk, but only with President Saakashvili.
The Patriarch called on both Government and opposition
leaders to attend a penance service on April 28 at 6 pm. End
Summary.


2. (C) Comment: Once again, the non-parliamentary
opposition could only turn out a minimal crowd on a sunny
afternoon. In private, some non-parliamentary opposition
leaders sem to be signaling a willingness to end the
protests, but they seem en masse unable to realistically
assess their relative bargaining power and popularity.
Questions of a lack of support are routinely explained away
by relying on their "gut instincts" as to what the people of
Georgia want and conspiracy theories as to why turnout has
been so small. Though seemingly aware in some sense that
they are losing leverage by the day, the non-parliamentary
opposition continues to draw the wrong conclusions.
Preferring to ignore the possibility that the Georgian public
does not support them or their goals, non-parliamentary
leaders are focusing on "educating" diplomats and blaming the
media - again highlighting the small echo chamber in which
many of the non-parliamentary leaders operate. End Comment.

Protest's New Action Plan .... We'll Get Back to You


3. (C) A small crowd of about 1000 protesters appeared on
Monday, April 27. No substantial change occurred since late
last week with a small number of protesters staying in cells
outside of Parliament, the Presidential Residence, Public
Broadcasters Building, State Chancellery, and Freedom Square.
The roads in front of MOIA, Public Broadcasters Building,
and Rustaveli Avenue to Freedom Square remained blocked.
Former Presidential Candidate Levan Gachechiladze told the
DCM that they were considering blocking Chavchavadze Avenue
(a major thoroughfare in the Vake District) in front of
Tbilisi State University with cells on the recommendation of
a "couple" of students. Other well-trafficked areas around
Tbilisi are being considered for "cell cities" according to
Gachechiladze. Gachechiladze dismissed questions about
whether roadblocks simply alienate people and serve to
further marginalize the non-parliamentary opposition. He
said that nothing has been agreed upon as far as new tactics.
One notable moment on April 27 was when an elderly lady took
to the stage and started to deliver a speech apparently
complaining about the protest organizers and the protests
(her speech was inaudible on TV and to Embassy observers).
Her microphone was then cut off and she was escorted away.

Willingness to Talk or Deja Vu All Over Again


4. (C) Gachechiladze said the non-parliamentary opposition
was willing to talk, but only with President Saakashvili at a
publicized event. Gachechiladze said the meeting needed to
be without an agenda and could be private (except for the
fact the meeting had taken place). He said it was up to
Qfact the meeting had taken place). He said it was up to
Saakashvili to provide a concrete time and place.
Gachechiladze indicated that the non-parliamentary opposition
would pick a few leaders to represent the group. He said
that Nino Burjanadze has pushed the idea of a meeting with
Saakashvili saying negotiations with anybody else are
worthless. Gachechiladze dismissed concerns that the
non-parliamentary opposition was too divergent in its aims
and personalities to provide a coherent group with which to
negotiate. He noted that Saakashvili could name the number
of opposition leaders to meet and the opposition would choose
its spokesmen. (Embassy Comment: Gachechiladze seemed open
to negotiations but again apart from Saakashvili's
resignation, had no clear fallback position. Gachechiladze,
along with Burjanadze, appears to have taken on somewhat of a
"first among equals" leadership role so his comments might
signify a greater willingness of the group as a whole to
negotiate. However, Tbilisi based diplomats and other
interlocutors have been given private messages of moderation
before from non-parliamentary leaders only to be followed by
more radical public statements the next day. End Comment.)

Don't Bother Us With the Facts

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5. (C) Gachechiladze argued that the public overwhelmingly
supports the opposition cause and claimed that 1000
protesters were sleeping in front of Parliament and 300 at
the Public Broadcasters Building. (Embassy Note: These
figures are wildly exaggerated with only perhaps 25-50 in
front of Parliament and 5-10 at the Public Broadcasters. The
cage infrastructure, if full, could only hold a fraction of
what Gachechiladze claimed. End Note.) He stated that every
family in Tbilisi was sending one representative a day to the
protests on a rotating basis to explain their support was
much greater than it appeared. Then, in a strange non
sequitur to a question that was never asked, Gachechiladze
said that "(y)ou know, we're not paying them!".
Gachechiladze claimed that the non-parliamentary opposition
was having no financial trouble in spite of the public
requests for donations. Gachechildze went to complain about
the unfairness of the media and that polling data was not
objective, but rather, controlled by Minister of Interior
Vano Merabishvili and was not an accurate gauge of public
sentiment. In response to French Ambassador Fournier's
pointed remarks (reftel) about the non-parliamentary
opposition, a new task force has been established to ensure
that diplomats are getting access to "correct information"
about what is actually happening in Georgia. The group will
consist of Nino Burjanadze (Democratic Movement - United
Georgia),Salome Zourabichvili (Georgia's Way),Irakli
Alasania (Alliance for Georgia),and Kakha Kukava
(Conservatives). Gachechiladze said that the opposition
hoped to brief diplomats on next steps on April 30.

Bakradze Leaks Private Radical Opposition Meeting


6. (C) Speaker David Bakradze's public announcement that he
had met with a number of radical members of the
non-parliamentary opposition was publicly met with opposition
derision. Nino Burjanadze said she was unaware of any
meetings and called the statement an attempt to sow discord
among the non-parliamentary oppoition. Tina Khidasheli
(Republican Party) called the Speaker's statement
irresponsible and demanded that he name the people with whom
he met. We know that Bakradze met fringe presidential
candidates Konstantine Gamsakhurdia (Freedom Party),Giorgi
Maisashvili (Party of the Future),and may also have met
former MP Guguli Magradze on Saturday, April 25. PolChief
met with the three at their request in the Sheraton Hotel
following a briefing to the diplomatic corps. When they
realized Bakradze was also at the Sheraton, they requested a
meeting which Bakradze accepted, according to his chief of
staff. The meeting is evidence of the Speaker's willingness
to talk -- although it is unlikely that results would emerge
from this channel. Irakli Alasania told PolOff that these
three opposition leaders were "nuts" and were only
begrudgingly allowed to be involved in the protests after
much discussion. Bakradze's leak appears to be a tactical
move to sow doubt and uncertainly among the non-parliamentary
opposition. Other sources have told Post that although the
public face was to dismiss the meeting, the news has
heightened the already widespread distrust among various
non-parliamentary figures.

Counter Accusations of Violence Continue


7. (C) An activist for the Alliance for Georgia was
allegedly beaten on Monday night in Kakheti. The activist
was assigned to bring protest participants from the region to
Qwas assigned to bring protest participants from the region to
Tbilisi. Two other protesters were claimed to have been
beaten Monday evening about a mile from Parliament. Post has
inquired with MOIA about both incidents. A Rustavi 2
journalist and cameraman were allegedly assaulted by three
protesters outside of Parliament. TV footage showed the
cameraman being punched in the face by a protester and the
journalist being shouted at while reporting on the protests.
The group opposition youth group Ratom ("Why") got into a
brief scuffle with security guards outside the Mayor's office
when they were not allowed to spray paint and put signs on
the government building. They left without further incident.
TEFFT