Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
09TBILISI787
2009-04-23 13:45:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Tbilisi
Cable title:  

GEORGIA: DEFINING THE ROOTS OF OPPOSITION

Tags:  PREL PGOV GG 
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P 231345Z APR 09
FM AMEMBASSY TBILISI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 1427
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RHEHAAA/NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUEKJCS/OSD WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TBILISI 000787 

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/22/2019
TAGS: PREL PGOV GG
SUBJECT: GEORGIA: DEFINING THE ROOTS OF OPPOSITION

Classified By: AMBASSADOR JOHN F. TEFFT FOR REASONS 1.4 (b) AND (d).

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TBILISI 000787

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/22/2019
TAGS: PREL PGOV GG
SUBJECT: GEORGIA: DEFINING THE ROOTS OF OPPOSITION

Classified By: AMBASSADOR JOHN F. TEFFT FOR REASONS 1.4 (b) AND (d).


1. (C) Introduction and Comment: Beyond the constantly
changing parties which define Georgia's opposition inside and
outside of parliament, there are four core groups that have
fundamentally opposed President Saakashvili since the early
days of his tenure in 2004. In large part, these are the
people and institutions which lost positions, prestige and
power with President Shevardnadze's resignation. Four groups
emerged: the police and security services, the first families
of Tbilisi, those who had supported the Rose Revolution but
were quickly disillusioned by President Saakashvili's
consolidation of executive power in 2004, and a small group
that has left the United National Movement within the last
year. Deputy Foreign Minister and Saakashvili insider Giga
Bokeria told us in the summer of 2008 that Saakashvili has
always raced the clock -- he believed that he did not have
the luxury of developing consensus in order to bring
irreversible democratic change to Georgia. That mentality
has kept these opponents firmly entrenched in the cafes and
universities of Tbilisi's elite neighborhoods in Vake and
Saburtalo. One constant criticism of President Saakashvili
is that he "threw out the good with the bad" of
Shevardnadze's team. These four groups now form the core of
opposition which seeks to bring about Saakashvili's
resignation.


2. (C) The key to understanding Saakashvili, is
understanding his history as a politician. When he, Zurab
Zhvania and Nino Burjanadze led the Rose Revolution, they
made big promises about Georgia's future: promises of
economic prosperity, increased democracy, and membership in
Western organizations including NATO and the EU. Saakashvili
has made notable progress in some of these areas and less in
others. Part of understanding who opposes Saakashvili
requires understanding the high expectations which were
raised and the unrealized promises of the President. These
groups are scattered throughout a variety of parties and
support different leaders. The four groups do not capture
all of those who oppose Saakashvili, but they represent the
crux of the supporters for current radical protests calling
for the President's resignation. Understanding the long-term

perspective of those in the opposition helps explain why some
are singularly intent on Saakashvili's resignation. End
Introduction and Comment.

Police, Security and the Over-50 Crowd


3. (C) Following the 2003 Rose Revolution and Saakashvili's
election as president in early 2004, Saakashvili's government
decided to quickly end corruption in the police by simply
firing all of them. They integrated special forces scattered
around the government in an effort to hold them accountable
to the President rather than ministers. The move was
designed to end petty corruption on the street, which the
government largely succeeded in doing. As President
Saakashvili routinely notes, he terminated the bulk of the
traffic police, whose primary role was to collect
insignificant bribes for real or imagined traffic violations
while standing on Georgia's street corners. The firing of
those traffic police created an immediate, tangible benefit
for Georgia's drivers -- but it also alienated an older
generation of police who felt entitled to these revenue
streams. It is not entirely clear how many police lost their
jobs following the Rose Revolution, but government officials
Qjobs following the Rose Revolution, but government officials
routinely cite about 200,000 throughout the country.


4. (C) In addition to the street cops, Saakashvili decided
to skip a generation of Georgia's elite throughout the
government when he successfully attracted young 20-something,
western-educated but politically inexperienced Georgians to
the government. Many diplomats at the MFA tell us that
those who came out of MGIMO or Soviet diplomacy have seen
their careers come to a standstill, although, of course, the
current Foreign Minister is the exception. He was trained in
Moscow and began his diplomatic career in the Soviet Foreign
Ministry. In a recent meeting, President Saakashvili told a
visiting senior U.S. official that he had to skip over a
generation -- he needed people who did not remember the
Soviet period to help him enact his ambitious reform agenda.
Saakashvili admitted, however, that within the defense arena,
he needed the expertise of military officials and could not
reject out of hand those with Soviet experience. In an April
conversation with the Ambassador, Deputy PM Gia Baramidze
said that, following the Rose Revolution, Saakashvili and his
team had no choice but to move fast. Georgia was at risk of
becoming a failed state and immediate action was needed.

Tbilisi's First Families


5. (C) Many observers of Tbilisi's elite recognize that,

TBILISI 00000787 002 OF 003


like many capitals around the world, an unofficial and
socially-accepted group of "first families" has played an
important role in the society. Through the Soviet period and
Shevardnadze's presidecy, these families wielded significant
influence. They could easily pick up a phone to have a
family member admitted to a prestigious university or help a
friend find a job with a Western salary. They were socially
influential individuals with known family pedigrees. They
primarily live in Tbilisi's toniest neighborhood, Vake.


6. (C) These families had, and have, expectations of an
elevated role in Georgian society. They believe, according
to our interlocutors, they are entitled to a privileged role
in society. With the reform of Georgia's education system --
led by current Georgian Ambassador to the UN Kakha Lomaia who
previously served as Minister of Education -- corruption in
the universities largely ended. Poloff has been anecdotally
told of some doctors, who could barely pass basic science
classes, graduating with honors from medical school because
of graft. Since 2004, university applicants are required to
pass standardized tests. The days when parentage or wealth
guaranteed admittance to a prestigious university and career
are over. Parents were humiliated when their under-achieving
children were denied admittance to Tbilisi State University
or Chavchavadze University. These families derisively
dismiss the president as being "provincial" because he did
not emanate from this group and because he does not protect
their entitlements.

The Disillusioned and Disappointed


7. (C) A third significant segment of the opposition is a
small but politically-committed group that stood with
Saakashvili, Zurab Zhvania and Nino Burjanadze during the
Rose Revolution. They opposed the corruption of the
Shevardnadze era. Most notable among this group are Dato
Usupashvili (now with the Alliance for Georgia) and his wife
political activist Tina Khidasheli. They supported
Saakashvili initially in 2003, but immediately moved into an
opposition camp following changes to Georgia's constitution
in 2004 which led to enhanced executive powers. Koba
Davitashvili (Party of the People) is another example of a
political figure who supported Saakashvili in 2003, but broke
with him following the constitutional changes in 2004 and the
changes to the status of Ajara's autonomy (also spring 2004).
Usupashvili and Davitashvili stand proudly on principle but
are generally considered to have little popular support.

Seeking Opportunity Beyond the UNM


8. (C) Those who have left the United National Movement
since the November 2007 protests form the final group. Oddly
enough, Saakashvili lost few senior party members immediately
following the severe actions taken against protesters in

2007. Nino Burjanadze, former Speaker of Parliament and
acting President, did not leave the UNM fold when the police
moved on protesters, nor did she leave as a response to
allegations of inappropriate activities during the January
2008 presidential elections. She left in May 2008 when,
according to one of her long-time supporters, she had a
disagreement with President Saakashvili over the placement of
her supporters on the UNM party list. Upon her resignation,
Burjanadze announced she intended to devote her energies to a
new think tank which would provide oversight of the
administration and the parliament. But after the August war,
she quickly entered party politics by launching her own
Qshe quickly entered party politics by launching her own
party, Democratic-Movement, United Georgia. During the April
protests, she has been criticized by people in the street for
her perceived role in the events of November 2007.


9. (C) Former PM Zurab Noghaideli left office in January
2008 with extremely low favorability ratings, according to
IRI and NDI polling. He was basically moved out so that the
President could show he was being responsive, although
officially health reasons were cited, but he re-emerged as a
politician after the August war and has focused his platform
largely on economic failures by the president. The most
recent and highest profile defector from the UNM is former
Ambassador to the UN Irakli Alasania and his team of
supporters, the Alliance for Georgia. They have publicly
stated and privately told us that they felt compelled to
leave the President's team and launch their political efforts
because of the President's incompetence in handling the
events of August 2008. Their platform is based on improving
the functioning of Georgia's national security structure.
Alasania leads a team comprised primarily of former diplomats
and government officials -- well-known figures whose names
engender respect throughout Georgia. The Alliance for
Georgia includes several former Ambassadors and has sharply
criticized President Saakashvili for leading hasty and
poorly-informed decision-making processes, and Alasania

TBILISI 00000787 003 OF 003


promises a more responsive and inclusive approach to
governance. Since Alasania has only been a political actor
since February, it remains to be seen how much traction he
will gain for his movement.
TEFFT