GEORGIA: NON-PARLIAMENTARY OPPOSITION NIXES

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TBILISI 000759

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/21/2019
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL GG
SUBJECT: GEORGIA: NON-PARLIAMENTARY OPPOSITION NIXES
DIALOGUE - PREPARES SECOND ROUND OF PROTESTS

REF: A. TBILISI 0748

B. TBILISI 0747

Classified By: AMBASSADOR JOHN F. TEFFT. REASONS: 1.4 (B) AND (D).


1. (C) Summary: Protests were largely halted over the
April 17-20 orthodox Easter holiday weekend with only a
symbolic number of protesters in the streets. Despite
government and EU representative Peter Semneby's efforts to
try to engage the non-parliamentary opposition in talks, on
Saturday, April 18 the non-parliamentary opposition issued a
statement rejecting dialogue and calling once again for
President Saakashvili's resignation. The non-parliamentary
opposition is planning to resume protests again on Tuesday,
April 21 promising massive crowds and a daily increase in
momentum which will topple Saakashvili. Thus far, there is
little evidence of such a massive turnout. End Summary.


2. (C) Comment: After a four-day respite, and paltry
crowds before the holiday, the non-parliamentary opposition
is banking on Tuesday's protests to provide momentum to force
Saakashvili from office. Although they may get a few more
people in the street than immediately before the Holy Week
holidays, it is hard to imagine anywhere near a critical mass
will turn out for the 13th day of protesting. The GoG has
been and is still willing to offer the non-parliamentary
opposition a face saving way out of their predicament.
However, the non-parliamentary opposition seems determined to
take a maximalist, uncompromising line despite increasing
evidence that the public is tiring of the protests and is
only marginally supportive of the opposition position.
Non-parliamentary opposition contacts are telling us that
maintaining unity among the group is the highest priority and
appears to have become an end in itself. The protests are
becoming more detached from any semblance of a constructive
way to push for tangible democratic changes. The
non-parliamentary opposition promises to announce another new
action plan April 21, but seems paralyzed to do anything
other than continue protests and call for Saakashvili's
resignation. End Comment.

Protests Halt - New Protests Scheduled


3. (C) A token presence of protesters remained in front of
Parliament, the Public Broadcasters Building, and the
Presidential Residence although no speakers addressed the
crowd during the four-day Orthodox Easter holiday, April
17-20. A number of parties hosted a feast outside the
Presidential Residence on Easter Sunday. (Embassy Note: A
number of our Georgian staff members told us how
inappropriate the display was and that among their friends it
provoked an almost universally negative reaction. End Note.)
Although some in the non-parliamentary opposition are
privately willing to listen to calls for dialogue, their
public position has only become more resolute with Saturday's
statement being read by relative moderate David Usupashvili
(Alliance for Georgia - Republicans). Usupashvili announced
that the non-parliamentary opposition would only negotiate
President Saakashvili's resignation and went on to call for
the "dismissal of oppressors, election riggers, and censors".
Usupashvili asked for the international community to take
meaningful steps in this regard. In a private conversation,
Alasania ally and former Georgian Ambassador to Turkmenistan
Alex Petriashvili suggested to PolChief that the USG request
Saakashvili to engage in negotiations over his resignation.
Apparently this is the way the protest leaders envision a
QApparently this is the way the protest leaders envision a
role for the international community. While many in the
non-parliamentary opposition spoke of massive new crowds of
protesters for Tuesday's rally, Salome Zourabichvili
(Georgia's Way) explained that the non-parliamentary
opposition plan of involving protesters from the regions was
only "symbolic" and not intended to increase the number of
protesters. The non-parliamentary opposition is set to
announce another new action plan April 21.

Negotiation without Concessions - Opposition Avoids
Saakashvili Meeting


4. (C) Speaker of Parliament David Bakradze has been in
contact with Alasania and other non-parliamentary opposition
leaders, but told the Ambassador that Saturday's statement
was a setback. Bakradze reiterated that the GoG was not
going to agree to anything unilaterally as the
non-parliamentary opposition would just pocket the concession
and continue to insist on Saakashvili's resignation. In this
vein, Alasania repeated the non-parliamentary line saying he
would negotiate with Saakashvili on democratic reform, but
the non-parliamentary opposition would "not at all" give up
on its demand that Saakashvili resign. Bakradze indicated
that many in the non-parliamentary opposition were not

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interested in good faith dialogue and vastly overestimated
their bargaining position. Bakradze specifically mentioned
Alasania, reiterating the government's view that Alasania
uses a moderate tone in private to Western diplomats but says
radical things in public and refuses to negotiate in good
faith. According to Bakradze, Deputy Foreign Minister (and
Saakashvili insider) Giga Bokeria has also spoken with Irakli
Alasania as well as Levan Gachechiladze to discuss a face
saving way out of the non-parliamentary opposition's
self-inflicted predicament.


5. (C) Bakradze told the Ambassador that the GoG had hoped
to arrange a pull-aside meeting with Saakashvili and a number
of non-parliamentary opposition leaders at midnight Easter
mass, but the non-parliamentary leaders elected not to
attend. Bakradze told the Ambassador that UNM focus groups
showed that the public is very unhappy with the protests.
Bakradze also mentioned the same focus groups are also
unhappy with the GoG but their anger is primarily directed at
the non-parliamentary leaders for the impasse. Bakradze
expressed his regret that the non-parliamentary opposition
rejected another opportunity for dialogue, but said that the
GoG would still work on finding a "face saving" way out of
the impasse. Bakradze did not expect a large turnout fo the
April 21 protest rally and expected the rallies to continue
for a few more days before they die out.

Public Scared and Confused


6. (C) An increasing number of beatings have been reported
to the Public Defender's office (ref A). Details remain
unclear although public anxiety is increasing as stories of
robberies and crimes spread. Over the weekend, Post became
aware of two recent burglaries, one of an American citizen
and long-time Tbilisi resident, another of the former
Georgian Ambassador to the United States and Switzerland and
Alasania supporter, Levan Mikeladze. Both appear to be
crimes of opportunity; Alasania's camp has not alleged
political motivations in the Mikeladze case pending a police
investigation. Whether these are crimes of opportunity,
political violence, or otherwise, anecdotal evidence suggests
crime has increased since the protests began although the
public seems unsure whom to blame. Adding to the public
confusion, the MOIA released a video in which a Burjanadze
supporter claimed that he was approached by some
non-parliamentary opposition representatives to convince him
to use a "trivial quarrel" over a car incident and claim it
was the result of MOIA repression. Burjanadze confirmed the
person was a supporter, but denied his allegations. Finally,
seeming to confirm the rumors, over the weekend, a number of
news programs showed numerous clips of protesters being paid
for their efforts. (Embassy Comment: This is the first
instance of video footage of protesters being paid released
to the public. End Comment.)
TEFFT