GEORGIA: PROTESTS TACTICS CHANGE SLIGHTLY, CROWDS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TBILISI 000728

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/25/2018
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL GG
SUBJECT: GEORGIA: PROTESTS TACTICS CHANGE SLIGHTLY, CROWDS
STILL MODEST

REF: A. TBILISI 0716

B. TBILISI 0711

Classified By: AMBASSADOR JOHN F. TEFFT. REASONS: 1.4 (B) AND (D).


1. (C) Summary: A crowd of roughly 5,000-9,000 gathered in
front of Parliament at about 3 pm Monday, April 13 to listen
to another round of speeches and take further direction from
non-parliamentary opposition leaders. At roughly 5:30 pm,
the majority of the crowd (Embassy Observers estimate
3,000-4,000) marched to the Presidential Residence to
continue protests. The crowd at the Presidential Residence
dispersed fairly quickly so that by 7:30 pm only about 1000
people remained. At 8 pm, roughly 1,500 people remained in
front of Parliament to protest. The non-parliamentary
opposition announced its plan to stay in tents outside of the
Presidential Residence, and said it would call protesters to
Parliament every day at 3 pm to announce new action plans.
End Summary.


2. (C) Comment: Good weather in Tbilisi appears to have
helped turnout with the crowd featuring a few more females
but nevertheless consisting mainly of older males. Levan
Gachechiladze still appears to be the "first among equals" of
the non-parliamentary leaders and took the lead in directing
the crowd movements. The tent city idea appears to have been
somewhat spontaneous as none of the leaders had thought to
procure tents beforehand, which leads us to believe the
non-parliamentary opposition is making this up as they go
along. While the non-parliamentary opposition can likely put
3,000-10,000 protesters in the street at any time, the public
remains largely apathetic towards the protests.
Increasingly, we are hearing grumbling about the autocratic
nature of many of the non-parliamentary leaders from
political observers and opposition sympathizers alike. End
Comment.

The Rallies Continue but Still No Long Term Plan


3. (C) The non-parliamentary opposition led by Levan
Gachechiladze addressed the crowd of 5,000-9,000 in front of
Parliament saying that they were going to protest at the
Presidential Residence rather than block the roads in front
of the Public Broadcasters and traffic circle in Avlabari as
they had previously done. (Embassy Comment: EU special
representative Peter Semneby told the opposition that he
viewed blocking city streets as an unwarranted escalation.
This message may have played a role in the changed tactics.
End Comment.) MOIA representatives said that they had been
told the decision was made to split the crowd into two rather
than three groups so as to not dilute their numbers. At
approximately 5:30 pm a large column of protesters made their
way up to the Presidential Residence where leaders began to
make speeches. Another group of about 200-300 headed by Nino
Burjanadze and Irakli Alasania, neither of whom attended the
rally at Parliament, met the estimated 3,000-4,000 protesters
who had made their way from Parliament to the Residence. The
group started to disperse soon after it arrived. Observers
saw three or four small tents being set up in front of the
main gate. Meanwhile, a small group of younger protesters
aged 18-24 were seen openly mocking, taking pictures, and
taunting security guards at the residence. MOIA
representatives told Poloff they estimated some 1000
protesters were at the Presidential Residence at 7:30 pm.


4. (C) A smaller group of roughly 1,500 stayed at
Parliament to listen to speeches. An observer told Poloff
that as of 9 am the next morning, no tents were seen in front
Qthat as of 9 am the next morning, no tents were seen in front
of Parliament and the crowd had dwindled to about 20
protesters. The non-parliamentary opposition has not
declared what its next steps will be. Kakha Kukava
(Conservatives) told protesters at one point to reconvene at
3 pm at Parliament to await further instructions. MOIA
representatives are generally of the opinion that the protest
is starting to lose steam and are wary that certain members
(Burjanadze is constantly mentioned) will try to create an
incident. MOIA again told Poloff their intention is to let
the protests simply die out, guessing that the public will
soon grow tired of them. The non-parliamentary opposition
does not appear to have decided on a long term strategy.
Minister of Corrections and Legal Assistance, Dimitry
Shashkin told the Ambassador he thought the non-parliamentary
opposition will come under pressure to call off the protests
for the Orthodox Easter holidays. Shashkin relayed that he
had also been told that the non-parliamentary opposition was
considering postponing further demonstrations until May 26
which is the Georgian Independence Day Holiday.

Dissent - Not Particularly Welcome Among the Protest Leaders


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5. (C) In what has now become a public spat, International
Chamber of Commerce head, Fadi Asly wrote a scathing letter
to David Gamkrelidze (New Rights Party Chairman and Alliance
for Georgia Member) which was circulated to the Diplomatic
Corps. In the letter, Asly details Gamkrelidze's public
comments at Saturday's rally threatening Mr. Asly and one of
his colleagues, warning Asly and others to refrain from
expressing any negative opinions about the protests.
Gamkrelidze's comments were in response to an op-ed that Asly
wrote prior to April 9 questioning the wisdom of the protests
and expressing his opinion that the protests were bad for
Georgia's business climate. (Embassy Note: AmCham
considered writing a similar op-ed but decided against it,
fearing just such a public reprisal from the
non-parliamentary opposition. End Note.) In the letter,
Asly chastised Gamkrelidze for threatening those who speak
out, noting that Gamkrelidze had "made the freedom of
expression and of democracy (his) leitmotif". Asly called
upon the non-parliamentary opposition to think less of their
personal interests and think about the "immense damage that
your sterile protests are causing to every single business in
Georgia."


6. (C) Vasil Kacharava, Director of American Studies at
Tbilisi State University told Poloff that he was very unhappy
with the Saakashvili administration but would not take part
in protests. Kacharava said he viewed the non-parliamentary
opposition as a significantly worse alternative. Kacharava
told Poloff that he was disappointed Saakashvili did not use
the abundance of expertise available at the university, but
that Saakashvili was at least somewhat open to discussion.
Kacharava said that while he did not speak for the whole
faculty, he and his colleagues were amazed at how the
non-parliamentary opposition treated them. Kacharava said
that it was impossible to speak to most of the leaders who
generally tolerated no opinion that did not conform to their
own narrow viewpoints. Kacharava said he found himself in a
growing group of politically interested and policy oriented
moderates that had no political home. Irakli Alasania
himself made the point on numerous occasions to the
Ambassador that he could not leave the non-parliamentary
opposition for fear they would destroy him politically if he
publicly dissented from their course of action.
TEFFT