Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
09TBILISI711
2009-04-10 14:42:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Tbilisi
Cable title:  

GEORGIA: PROTESTS PEACEFUL, OPPOSITION TURNOUT

Tags:  PGOV PHUM PREL GG 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXRO5502
OO RUEHDBU RUEHFL RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHNP RUEHROV RUEHSR
DE RUEHSI #0711/01 1001442
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
O 101442Z APR 09
FM AMEMBASSY TBILISI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 1357
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TBILISI 000711 

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/25/2018
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL GG
SUBJECT: GEORGIA: PROTESTS PEACEFUL, OPPOSITION TURNOUT
LESS THAN HOPED

REF: TBILISI 693

Classified By: AMBASSADOR JOHN F. TEFFT. REASONS: 1.4 (B) AND (D).

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TBILISI 000711

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/25/2018
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL GG
SUBJECT: GEORGIA: PROTESTS PEACEFUL, OPPOSITION TURNOUT
LESS THAN HOPED

REF: TBILISI 693

Classified By: AMBASSADOR JOHN F. TEFFT. REASONS: 1.4 (B) AND (D).


1. (SBU) Summary: The much anticipated April 9 protests
proceeded peacefully, lasting about 6 hours from 2pm to 8pm.
Non-parliamentary opposition leaders gave President
Saakashvili twenty-four hours to resign or they will engage
in further actions. The bulk of the protest took place in
front of Parliament although a sizable portion broke away at
4:30pm to protest in front of the Public Broadcaster. The
protests were covered extensively by the local media.
Organizers asked the crowd to return on April 10 at 3pm and
only a small group of protesters remained overnight in front
of Parliament. There was no visible police presence except
for a small group of guards near Parliament. Estimates vary
about the crowd size. MOIA estimated the crowd at roughly
25,000; while observers affiliated with the Caucasus Research
Center put the estimate at 50,000 at its peak. Embassy
Observers believe the crowd ranged from 30,000 to 40,000.
There was also a small protest of about a 1,000 in Batumi.
On April 10, President Saakashvili publicly thanked the
protesters for demonstrating peacefully and responsibly, said
he understood why people were frustrated, and said the GoG
was still willing to engage in dialogue. Approximately
5,000-10,000 protesters turned up for the April 10 follow-up
rally. The non-parliamentary opposition leaders pledged to
engage in civil disobedience by picketing and blocking roads
until Saakashvili resigns. They plan on protesting at the
Presidential Palace, the Public Broadcaster, and Parliament
everyday from 3pm until 9pm. End Summary.


2. (C) Comment: The non-parliamentary opposition organized
a sizable crowd but nowhere near the 100,000-200,000 they
predicted. Despite the modest turnout, the non-parliamentary
opposition did not deviate from its repeated demand for
Saakashvili's resignation. Saakashvili's April 10 statement
appears to us to capture the general sense of the public who
may be dissatisfied with current economic and political
conditions, but who are tired of the tactics of protests and
ultimatums. We have heard from many that while they are

unhappy with the government, they are also unhappy with the
opposition. The decision to picket and block traffic could
increase tensions and could be an attempt to force some sort
of confrontation with the police. We are continuing to urge
all sides to show restraint and encourage dialogue, and will
observe the protests closely. End Comment.

Protests Start - Crowd Subdued


3. (C) The long-awaited April 9 protest started at 2pm
local time. Channel 1, Imedi, and Rustavi showed some live
coverage of the rallies, while Maestro and Kavkasia showed
the rallies in their entirety. (Embassy Note: Channel 1,
Imedi, and Rustavi all provided live coverage during their
news updates which were extended to allow for more coverage
but did not have non-stop coverage. Maestro and Kavkasia
provided live non-stop coverage until roughly 7 or 8pm. End
Note.). Initial estimates of the crowd varied from 50,000
(based on an estimate by the Caucasus Research Center) to
25,000 by the MOIA (based on aerial photos) to 30-40,000
(based on Embassy Observer estimates). (Embassy Note: The
MOIA estimate was arrived at in part with Austrian and
Hungarian police experts and other international law
enforcement observers who actually thought the MOIA numbers
were too high. End Note.). The consensus among the
observers was that 2 pm represented the high-water mark and
Qobservers was that 2 pm represented the high-water mark and
the crowd started to slowly dissipate throughout the day.
Various speakers stood on a stage set up in front of
Parliament and gave speeches. Apart from an occasional
applause line, the crowd was very subdued.


4. (C) The crowd was generally middle aged with few people
prepared for a continuous protest (no sleeping bags or warm
clothes). We estimate that as much as half the crowd had
little interest in the protest per se but were simply on
Rustaveli Avenue to see the event. Embassy observers saw
people chatting with friends, milling around, and only about
half the crowd faced the speakers at any given time. The
opposition did not have music or any other means of
entertaining the crowd between speeches and the sound system
they used worked poorly. The GoG followed through on its
promise to have minimal police presence, and thus far,
appears to have learned valuable lessons from the November
2007 protests. All sides deserve credit for keeping the
rally peaceful.


5. (C) The public defender's office, priests,
self-identified party members, and NGO volunteers all served
as observers to help enure the rally remained peaceful.
Embassy observers noticed a visible police presence only near
Parliament which consisted of a few officers, who did not

TBILISI 00000711 002 OF 003


engage with protesters. The speeches varied from somewhat
moderate to hysterical, though crowd reaction remained
largely apathetic regardless of the speaker addressing the
crowd. Labor Party Leader, Shalva Natelashvili got the best
response. Notably, Nino Burjanadze was loudly booed when she
spoke. She indicated that she understood the crowd's
frustration, but asked them to understand her move from
government to opposition was "for the people." Burjanadze
later claimed those who whistled and booed were GoG plants.
By 4 pm both speakers and some among the crowd were urging
protesters to remain (Embassy Note: Post estimated the crowd
at roughly 20-25,000 at this point. End Note.).

The Protests Move


6. (C) At roughly 4:30pm, a group of 5,000-10,000 led by
Levan Gachechiladze and Goga Khaindrava left the Parliament
and headed to the Public Broadcaster's building in what
seemed to be a semi-spontaneous idea rather than a
pre-planned maneuver. Only about half of the original group
made it to the Public Broadcaster's office which is over a
mile walk away. Goga Khaindrava took the microphone and said
that the protesters would storm the building unless the
Public Broadcaster let them in and acceded to their
"demands". Other speakers spoke of a round the clock
picketing action. A brief scuffle appeared to break out
between protesters and a security guard. However, the Public
Broadcaster agreed to let three representatives in to conduct
negotiations. According to the MOIA, Levan Gachicheladze,
Koba Davitashvili (Party of the People),and Zviad Dzidziguri
(Conservative Party) were allowed to enter the building to
negotiate. Gachechiladze's reported demand was that that
Channel 1 provide live (though intermittent) coverage of the
protests which the Public Broadcaster agreed to do. (Embassy
Note: This was a bizarre request considering that the Public
Broadcaster had already been providing what Gachechiladze
demanded. Gachechiladze then demanded 6 minutes of live
airtime every day for himself personally, a demand which was
rejected. End Note.). They also reportedly requested that
Channel 1 show the Patriarch's speech on April 9 in its
entirety and issue invitations for opposition leaders to
appear on public talk shows. Once the "demands" were met,
Gachechiladze returned to the street and addressed the crowd
which had now dwindled to roughly 2,000 people.
Subsequently, Khaindrava claimed that 3,000 special forces
troops were inside the building and ready to attack the
crowd. Khaindrava stated that they would move back to
Parliament to avoid bloodshed. The crowds reaction was
largely one of confused looks and silence. After the
announcement, about 500-1,000 of the protesters walked back
and joined the group in front of Parliament at roughly
6:30pm. By this time, the crowd had dwindled significantly
and Embassy observers could make their way into the crowd,
directly in front of the stage.

Let's Call it a Day - And Back on April 10


7. (C) Speakers continued to implore protesters to stay or
if they left, to come back with two additional people. As of
7pm the crowd had dwindled to roughly 5,000 protesters. At
that time, Levan Gachechiladze asked for protesters to return
at 10am on April 10. After some brief discussion with other
leaders, he revised the time to 3pm. In a press conference,
Irakli Alasania claimed that he conservatively estimated
125,000 people were at the rally (Embassy Note: This claim
does not withstand even minimal scrutiny. End Note.).
Alasania said that if Saakashvili did not resign, the
QAlasania said that if Saakashvili did not resign, the
non-parliamentary opposition would announce a further action
plan. Non-parliamentary leaders did not provide any clarity
into further actions until the April 10 rally where they said
they would engage in "civil disobedience". Nino Burjanadze
claimed that the protests had "really scared the
authorities". (Embassy Comment: Post is unsure if certain
opposition members are putting a positive spin on events or
actually believe their own rhetoric. End Comment). A few
supporters stayed overnight in front of Parliament, singing,
dancing and drinking. A number appeared on TV news programs
to be intoxicated (including some lesser "leaders") and
dancing late into the night.


8. (C) About 5,000-10,000 protesters returned to Parliament
on April 10 at 3 pm and listened to another round of speeches
made by opposition leaders. The new plan outlined asked
protesters to return to the Parliament each day at 3 pm. At
that time, orders would be given and protesters would move to
designated locations (i.e. the President's office in Avlabari
and the Public Broadcaster's office) to engage in unspecified
"acts of civil disobedience," before returning to Parliament
at 9 pm. It is unclear as to how many protesters will follow
these instructions and whether they can continue this kind of
activity over the weekend and into orthodox holy week.


TBILISI 00000711 003 OF 003


GoG Remains Calm - Continues to Offer Dialogue


9. (C) In spite of claims by the non-parliamentary
opposition, GoG contacts tell us that they intend to let the
protests continue if they remain non-violent. Security
Council Chief Eka Tkeshalashvili told the Ambassador that
Georgian law nforcement is under strict orders to avoid
confrontation. The Ambassador urged her to maintain maximum
restraint. Tkeshalashvili reassured the Ambassador that the
GoG had no intentions of using force to disperse the
protests, but agreed that the coming days might be more
dangerous as the crowd dwindles and becomes more desperate.
In this backdrop, President Saakashvili called for dialogue
saying "yesterday was a very important for our democracy, one
part of our society has expressed its will." Saakashvili
went on to express his gratitude to the protesters for
remaining peaceful and indicated that he understood why some
were upset with him. Saakashvili then called on all sides to
work together to solve Georgia's problems.
TEFFT