GEORGIA: NON PARLIAMENTARY OPPOSITION REJECTS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TBILISI 000693

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/25/2018
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL GG
SUBJECT: GEORGIA: NON PARLIAMENTARY OPPOSITION REJECTS
CALLS FOR DIALOGUE

REF: A. TBILISI 679

B. TBILISI 660

C. TBILISI 657

D. TBILISI 618

Classified By: AMBASSADOR JOHN F. TEFFT. REASONS: 1.4 (B) AND (D).


1. (C) Summary/Comment: While public calls for dialogue
increase, the non-parliamentary opposition remains adamant
that they will only discuss the terms of President
Saakashvili's resignation. The Patriarch, the Ambassador,
the EU, President Saakashvili, Christian Democrats and
business leaders have all publicly and repeatedly called for
dialogue, but the calls appear to be falling on deaf ears.
By rejecting any sort of dialogue, the non-parliamentary
opposition appears willing to hand the President the moral
high ground politically and to gamble that a large turnout on
April 9 will push Saakashvili and his government to make
concessions. With the Patriarch (considered the most
trustworthy figure in Georgia) calling for calm and dialogue,
the non-parliamentary opposition is taking a sizable
political risk by rejecting talks outright and planning on
engaging in non-stop protests. Despite taking a tack that
looks increasingly politically tone deaf, the
non-parliamentary opposition is charging straight ahead. If
the April 9 protests do not produce regime change, the
non-parliamentary leaders may find themselves with little
political space in which to maneuver. End Summary/Comment.

Patriarch Speaks - People Listen


2. (C) The recent IRI poll (March 2009) demonstrates the
continuing powerful appeal of the Georgian Orthodox Church
with the church getting a 91 percent favorable rating across
Georgia. The Patriarch, who is immensely popular and
respected, repeated his calls for dialogue during his sermon
on April 7, Georgia's Day of the Annunciation. He called on
all sides to engage in dialogue saying "I hope we'll
understand each other and learn to listen to each other".
This message follows his similar previous public statements
urging the same. While always cautious in his public
pronouncements, the Patriarch's message is clear to Georgians
-- that constant protests and ultimatums are not viewed
positively by the church, echoing his more candid private
statements to the Ambassador (ref C). While the overall
effect of the Patriarch's statements is unquantifiable,
refusing to negotiate and ignoring the Patriarch's urging can
only work to the non-parliamentary opposition's political
detriment.

Saakashvili Sees Where the Political Winds are Blowing


3. (C) Traveling in the regions, President Saakashvili
stated on April 7, that "there is no alternative to
dialogue," and reiterated his proposal to the
non-parliamentary opposition that he and the GoG are willing
and able to engage. Saakashvili continued saying that
"dialogue is needed with even the smallest and most radical
groups as well, no matter how unacceptable their demands
might be, because Georgia simply does not have an
alternative." Saakashvili's comments echo those of the
Patriarch and the EU, which released a statement that in part
read "the people of Georgia can only benefit from political
pluralism and constructive political dialogue between the
Government and the opposition." Regardless of Saakashvili's
motives, the call for dialogue appears to be a smart play
politically and generally in line with broad popular
sentiment.

Non-Parliamentary Opposition Defiant


4. (C) Alliance for Georgia leader Irakli Alasania called
the President's calls for dialogue an "inadequate" reaction.
Former Presidential Candidate Levan Gachechiladze said that
"(d)ialogue will only take place live on air and only if
Q"(d)ialogue will only take place live on air and only if
Saakashvili bows to the demands of the people and resigns."
In an April 7 briefing to the diplomatic corps and subsequent
press conference in which most non-parliamentary leaders
attended, a press release contained only one demand -
Saakashvili's resignation - and ominously called on the
international community "to refrain from any kind of
interference during the crisis by trying to comfort the
President." Nino Burjanadze in a meeting with Congressmen
John Tanner (D-TN) and Congresswoman Jo Ann Emerson (R-MO),
completely ruled out the idea of dialogue calling Saakashvili
untrustworthy and anti-democratic. Burjanadze rejected out
of hand that President Saakashvili should be allowed to serve
out his term in office. Even among the non-parliamentary
opposition, any signal that dialogue could be acceptable is
quickly shouted down. On Maestro TV when David Gamkrelidze
(Alliance for Georgia) indicated that dialogue was
theoretically possible if President Saakashvili made a number

TBILISI 00000693 002 OF 002


of major concessions (including the "return" of Imedi to
Badri Patarkatsashvili's family and the dismissal of the
heads of the Central Election Commission and Supreme Court),
e was quickly interrupted by Levan Gachechiladze who said
the non-parliamentary opposition would never agree to any
dialogue.
TEFFT