Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
09TBILISI618
2009-03-26 14:15:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Tbilisi
Cable title:  

GEORGIA: APRIL 9 PROTEST MACHINATIONS IN FULL SWING

Tags:  PGOV PHUM PREL GG 
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OO RUEHDBU RUEHFL RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHNP RUEHROV RUEHSR
DE RUEHSI #0618/01 0851415
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
O 261415Z MAR 09
FM AMEMBASSY TBILISI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 1268
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TBILISI 000618 

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/25/2018
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL GG
SUBJECT: GEORGIA: APRIL 9 PROTEST MACHINATIONS IN FULL SWING

REF: A. TBILISI 585

B. TBILISI 559

Classified By: AMBASSADOR JOHN F. TEFFT. REASONS: 1.4 (B) AND (D).

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TBILISI 000618

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/25/2018
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL GG
SUBJECT: GEORGIA: APRIL 9 PROTEST MACHINATIONS IN FULL SWING

REF: A. TBILISI 585

B. TBILISI 559

Classified By: AMBASSADOR JOHN F. TEFFT. REASONS: 1.4 (B) AND (D).


1. (C) Summary: Both the GOG and non-parliamentary
opposition groups are formulating their plans to handle the
upcoming April 9 protests at which the opposition will demand
the resignation of President Saakashvili and holding new
presidential elections. The GOG intends to take a low key
approach, and is apparently willing to let protesters stay as
long as they desire as long as the demonstrators are peaceful
and lawful. The makeup of the non-parliamentary participants
is still in flux as they debate how to organize, how to
maintain control over the crowd, and how to stop violence.
Both sides are concerned the other will provoke violence, yet
both seem to be striking the right chord about the importance
of maintaining a peaceful protest. End Summary.


2. (C) Comment: Tension is growing among the public
especially after the Ministry of Internal Affairs (MOIA)
released video footage of Burjanadze supporters allegedly
purchasing illegal arms. Nonetheless, the GOG and the
non-parliamentary opposition have been saying they are
committed to lawful expression of views and both sides have a
strong incentive to avoid violence. The GOG, at least on the
surface, appears to have learned some valuable lessons from
its handling of the November 2007 protests and vows to take a
hands off approach. Most of the non-parliamentary opposition
appear to be unflinching in their demands for Saakashvili to
resign and determined to carry out what is shaping up to be a
significant protest. GOG officials for their part seem
concerned about the potential for violence but largely
unconcerned about the political significance of the protests.
It remains to early to judge what if any effect the arrest
of Burjanadze supporters will have on the political dynamic,
but as of yet, the news has not served to galvanize support
for the demonstrators. End Comment.

GOG Confident - Prepared to Let the Protesters Stay as Long
as Protests are Peaceful


3. (C) From the highest levels of government on down, GOG
officials say, both publicly and privately, they will take a

hands off approach to the protests. Minister of Interior
Vano Merabishvili told the Ambassador that he intended to set
up a monitoring mechanism so international observers could
see from the inside how the MOIA was handling their response
to the crowd. He reiterated this point before a March 25
gathering of the diplomatic corps at MOIA. Speaker Bakradze
told the Ambassador that the GOG intended to let the protests
last as long as the protesters wanted if they were
non-violent. In fact, GOG leaders see no upside in
dispersing the protesters before they are ready to leave.
UNM MP David Darchiashvili (Chairman of Euro-Integration
Committee) told Poloff that he expected the protests to be
sizable but that most would lose interest after a day or two
of non-violent protests. Darchiashvili explained that the
"Vake and Saburtalo" elites liked to complain and strongly
dislike "Misha" but that they valued their privileged
existence more. Darchiashvili said this group, which he
expected would make up a majority of the protesters had jobs,
obligations and ultimately had no real interest in assuming
the arduous task of actually engaging long term on political
issues.


4. (C) UNM MP Akaki Minashvili (Chairman of Foreign
Relations Committee) and UNM MP Chiora Taktakishvili (Deputy
Chairperson of the Legal Committee) agreed with
Darchiashvili's statements. Minashvili said he expected the
QDarchiashvili's statements. Minashvili said he expected the
crowds to be around 25-30,000 but that was only a "guess".
The apparent operating assumption of the GOG is that any
large-scale protests will quickly fizzle out, and any
reaction by the GOG would only serve to legitimize a movement
that is fully capable of destroying itself if left to its own
devices. None of the MP's appeared concerned that the
protesters would actually accomplish their aim of regime
change nor did any other GOG interlocutors. Nonetheless, the
GOG has made clear it has an obligation to maintain the peace
and that any violent action by the opposition such as
storming a government building or otherwise would necessitate
that law enforcement organs react accordingly to prevent
criminal behavior. The major underlying GOG concern is that
with a large crowd, any "drunken idiot" could incite violence.

Both Side Want to Avoid Violence


5. (C) The one issue all agree on is the need to refrain
from violence. According to Former UN Ambassador, Irakli
Alasania (Alliance),the non-parliamentary opposition has
been discussing ways to deal with those among their ranks who
would incite violence. He stated that they had spoken about
blocking the Parliament themselves if protesters tried to

TBILISI 00000618 002 OF 003


storm it among other things. Alasania agreed that a larger
crowd could be more difficult to control. Numerous
opposition members have expressed their concerns tha the
MOIA would plant provocateurs among the crowd to incite
violence which would be blamed on the protesters. The
provocation would then serve as a pretext for a GOG crackdown
on protesters. GOG officials dismiss this scenario as
absurd, pointing out that any violence whatsoever would have
very negative consequences for the GOG and any such plot
would soon be uncovered. (Embassy Comment: We see no
incentive for the Government to incite violence. If violence
occurs, the side largely seen as initiating violence would
face serious political backlash, domestic and
internationally. End Comment).

Non-Parliamentary Opposition - Still Divided


6. (C) The non-parliamentary opposition continues to be
united by one issue, their desire to see Saakashvili resign.
They continue to discuss tactics and goals; however,
confusion rather than coherence continues to plague their
efforts. Alasania told DAS Bryza and the Ambassador March 25
that he was attempting to convince the non-parliamentary
opposition to limit the protest to one day. He thought such
a signal would show that the non-parliamentary opposition
could organize large numbers of citizens peacefully and would
serve as a strong political statement. Alasania expressed
doubt that all parties would agree to such a tactic.
Continuing to be substantially more moderate in private than
in public, Alasania agreed that Saakashvili would not resign,
and the goal of continuos protests to achieve it was
unrealistic and counterproductive for the country.
Nevertheless, it remains unclear if Alasania can convince any
other non-parliamentary leaders to follow his lead. Alasania
stated that he believed if the protests simply die out, the
non-parliamentary leaders will have little political
leverage. Alasania worried that some of his colleagues had
painted themselves into a rhetorical corner and expressed to
both DAS Bryza and the Ambassador that he was ready, willing,
and able to speak with GOG authorities about a way to avoid
confrontation.

Channels Are Open but Will They Be Used?


7. (C) Speaker Bakradze explicitly told the Ambassador that
the GOG was willing to speak with non-parliamentary
opposition members, especially Alasania, regarding potential
areas of compromise to avoid further conflict. Among the
areas the GOG was open to discussing was constitutional
changes which would reduce the power of the President and
increase that of Parliament. Bakradze mentioned Givi
Targamadze as a potential channel of communication between
the UNM and the opposition. Opposition MP Gia Tortladze has
also been mentioned as a go-between. Alasania told DAS Bryza
and the Ambassador that he was under the impression that he
would be able to speak briefly with Saakashvili when both
were recently in Brussels for the German Marshall Fund
conference, but it did not materialize. At a minimum, the
GOG and Alasania appear to be open to dialogue, but Alasania
admitted that many in the non-parliamentary opposition have
no interest in any sort of dialogue or compromise.


8. (C) Deputy Minister Gia Baramidze told the Ambassador
and Polchief March 26 that he was also trying to reachout to
the opposition. As the leader of the wing in UNM associated
with former Prime Minister Zurab Zhavania, Baramidze said
that he understood from participating in political protests
over the past 20 years how quickly demonstrations could get
Qover the past 20 years how quickly demonstrations could get
out of control. He had scheduled a meeting later in the day
with Republican Party leader David Usupashvili, and said he
would also attempt to meet Alasania. He said that President
Saakashvili supported his efforts. (Embassy Note:
Saakashvili called Baramidze twice during the meeting. End
Note.). The Ambassador encouraged Baramidze to seek to open
a dialogue and find a peaceful way out of the political
impasse.

Let's Negotiate - But What About and With Whom


8. (C) While members of both sides may be open to dialogue,
the obvious roadblock remains the opposition's call for the
president's resignation and presidential elections.
Currently, the non-parliamentary opposition has no other
political demands. Deputy Foreign Minister, Giga Bokeria
told DAS Bryza and the Ambassador March 25 that dialogue
would be "great" but pointedly asked why President
Saakashvili should reach out to somebody (Alasania) who is
calling for his unconstitutional removal. Bokeria continued
saying that Alasania refused to join the Election Law Working
Group, and recently signed "some ridiculous document" in
support of Burjanadze claiming the arrest of her supporters
was political intimidation without having even seen the
evidence. Bokeria said that the GOG would be willing to

TBILISI 00000618 003.2 OF 003


speak to Alasania but that Alasania had a tendency to talk
out of both sides of his mouth, and at every turn had
rebuffed avenues of cooperation. As Bokeria noted, Alasania
cannot have it both ways, being a moderate in private and a
radical in public. Bokeria indicated that Alasania would
have to signal something significant in public before anybody
would take his willingness to negotiate at face value.


9. (C) Bokeria wryly noted that after April 9, the
non-parliamentary opposition would negotiate. From the
non-parliamentary opposition, only Alasania seems ready to
consider an alternative way forward to avoid street
confrontation, but even he expressed doubts that others would
follow. There have been few indications that the more
radical members of the non-parliamentary opposition would be
open to negotiations even if the protests fizzle out.
Until the non-parliamentary opposition drops their
"non-negotiable" demand for the president's resignation, any
sort of compromise is hard to imagine. Secondly, beyond
their desire to oust the president, the non-parliamentary
opposition's aims are widely divergent, serving to further
complicate any potential for negotiations both before and
after April 9.

Guns, Burjanadze, and Armed Uprising


10. (C) The arrest of nine of Nino Burjanadze's supporters
on weapons charges has captivated an increasingly worried
public. Burjanadze initially told DAS Bryza and the
Ambassador March 25 that the whole scenario was an MOIA
orchestrated set-up. Burjanadze questioned the authenticity
of the videos, and said she was investigating what truly had
occurred. Later in the conversation she admitted that some
of those arrested might actually have violated the law and
sought to promote violence. She disassociated herself from
both. While it appears a majority of the public has not
formed a hardened opinion on the matter, the arrests have
heightened a growing anxiety among the public that the
protests have the potential to turn violent. Opposition
leaders have claimed the evidence was fabricated to deter
individuals from protesting, while the GOG has maintained the
arrests were not politically motivated. Burjanadze said the
arrests will not affect her decision to participate (or not)
in April 9 protests.
TEFFT