GEORGIA: IRAN FEELING INSECURE IN CAUCASUS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TBILISI 000560

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/23/2019
TAGS: PREL MOPS KBTS UNOMIG UNSC RS IR IS GG
SUBJECT: GEORGIA: IRAN FEELING INSECURE IN CAUCASUS

REF: TBILISI 488

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Classified By: Ambassador John F. Tefft for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary and comment. In a readout to the Ambassador
of his recent visit to Iran, Reintegration Minister Temuri
Yakobashvili suggested that the Iranians seemed paranoid
about potential threats and rivals for regional influence.
Russia had effectively fueled that paranoia with allegations
of U.S. plans to use Georgia as a staging ground for attacks
on Iran. Likewise, Israel is supposedly planning to use the
UAVs it has sold to Georgia to attack Iran. Iran does not
trust Russia either, however, and sees Turkey's proposed
Caucasus platform as an effort t take a leadership role in
the region -- a role Iran considers rightfully its own, along
with its self-perceived leadership of the Islamic world.
Yakobashvili saw three basic attitudes toward the west in
Iran: openness and optimism, held by the population at large;
open but calculating skepticism, held by the bureaucracy; and
extremely hesitant caution, held by the top leadership. The
people are mostly concerned with the economy. Yakobashvili
compared the level of state control to that of the USSR, but
two key differences -- the existence of private property and
the ability of people to travel -- serve as a sufficient
safety valve to prevent frustration from exploding. End
summary.

PARANOIA, THE DESTROYER


2. (C) Yakobashvili, Georgia's only Jewish member of the
Cabinet, traveled to Tehran with Deputy Foreign Minister
Nalbandov (reftel),but stayed an additional day and had
separate meetings. During a March 18 conversation with the
Ambassador, he stated several times the Iranians were
paranoid and advised the United States to keep that fact in
mind. As Yakobashvili was waiting at the airport to depart
Tehran, Iranian officials approached him with documents
supplied by the Russians supposedly proving that the United
States was planning to attack Iran from bases in Georgia. In
earlier meetings, officials asked Yakobashvili why Georgia
wanted to join NATO, suggesting that this step would only
allow the U.S. to establish bases in Georgia. Iranian
officials also asked Yakobashvili about unmanned aerial
vehicles (UAVs) Georgia had acquired from Israel, expressing
the concern that Israel planned to use them to attack Iran.
They even asked how many Israelis had died in South Ossetia,
ostensibly fighting for the Georgian government during the
August war with Russia. Yakobashvili pushed back on these
allegations, asking the Iranians if they were aware that the
Russians were manipulating them; their answer was that they
had invited him to Iran for precisely that reason, apparently
as a check on the Russians' allegations.


3. (C) Yakobashvili suggested Iran put up with Russian
manipulation because it felt threatened and isolated and knew
it needed Russia. At the same time, he thought Iran did not
trust Russia and was wary of excessive Russian influence in
the region. Likewise, he said the Iranians were very
concerned about potential Turkish influence; they asked about
the proposed Caucasus Platform at every meeting, making clear
they did not like the idea. He thought Iran saw itself as a
leader in both the Caucasus region and the Islamic world and
Qleader in both the Caucasus region and the Islamic world and
considered Turkey a rival for both roles. He noted Iranian
contempt for Arabs as well, which he saw expressed in a video
entitled "Homo Arabicus" while in Iran. Although they did
not admit it was a defeat, the Iranians did express concern
to Yakobashvili over the recent conflict in Gaza -- and he
thought they did in fact realize it was a defeat, especially
for their hopes of establishing themselves as a leader in the
Islamic world. Yakobashvili also emphasized that the
Iran-Iraq war still is a key frame of reference for Iran;
reminders of it are everywhere, and the perceived role of the
U.S. and the EU in supporting Saddam Hussein against Iran is
still resented.

I HOPE TOMORROW WE'LL FIND BETTER THINGS


4. (C) In Yakobashvili's assessment, the Iranian people fit
in to three broad societal groups, each of which had a
different attitude toward re-engagement with the west.
First, he said the population at large was open to the idea
and optimistic about the possibilities; its main concern was
the global economic crisis. He said that the people found
recent moves to limit consumption of gasoline by civilians
(while not by the government or businesses) distressing. He
noted that Iran has everything you could want in a tourist

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destination -- Isfahan, for example, was a beautiful and
modern city -- but no tourists. Second, he said mid-career
bureaucrats were also open to engagement, but skeptical and
cautious; they saw the current global political environment
as a "bazaar," where the different sides would have to
negotiate to obtain the best result for their own interests.
Finally, although he did not say the top leadership was
opposed to engagement, he thought they were looking for ways
to delay it for now. He portrayed the government's interest
in nuclear weapons as primarily a bargaining chip; being on
the verge of achieving a nuclear device would almost be
better than actually having it, because it would keep the
west's attention and allow Iran to extract more concessions.


5. (C) As a former Soviet citizen, Yakobashvili saw many
similarities between the oppression of the Iranian regime and
that of the Soviets. Nevertheless, he suggested two key
elements of society served as a safety valve for societal
frustration and made a collapse of Iran unlikely: the
existence of private property and the ability of people to
travel. He noted the widespread existence of satellite
dishes (although many are kept covered),for example, and
that Iran is one of the world's foremost consumers of
expensive women's clothes. He said that Iranian
intellectuals hate the mullahs, but recognize they cannot
challenge them at this time. He also noted a grudging
respect for the mullahs' role in restoring Iran to a place of
prominence; 150 years ago, Iran was nothing, but these
"idiots" had at least managed to restore Iranian national
pride.
TEFFT