Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
09TBILISI55
2009-01-13 14:03:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Tbilisi
Cable title:  

GEORGIA: RUMOR MILL CHURNING FEEDING A RUSSIAN

Tags:  PGOV PREL GG 
pdf how-to read a cable
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DE RUEHSI #0055/01 0131403
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
O 131403Z JAN 09
FM AMEMBASSY TBILISI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 0695
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TBILISI 000055 

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/25/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL GG
SUBJECT: GEORGIA: RUMOR MILL CHURNING FEEDING A RUSSIAN
DISINFORMATION CAMPAIGN

REF: TBILISI 24

Classified By: AMBASSADOR JOHN F. TEFFT. REASONS: 1.4 (B) AND (D).

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TBILISI 000055

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/25/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL GG
SUBJECT: GEORGIA: RUMOR MILL CHURNING FEEDING A RUSSIAN
DISINFORMATION CAMPAIGN

REF: TBILISI 24

Classified By: AMBASSADOR JOHN F. TEFFT. REASONS: 1.4 (B) AND (D).


1. (C) Summary/Comment: Post is closely following what has
the markings of a possible Russian disinformation campaign to
create distrust and speculation with the United States and
President Saakashvili in the Georgian public. Rumors of
impending U.S. or other outside action to remove Saakashvili
from his post and force the calling of new elections are
taking on a life of their own. We have no evidence to
suggest that any opposition figure is knowingly involved in
this possible disinformation campaign nor any evidence of any
general pro-Russian public sentiment. Instead it appears
that some elements in Russia might be quietly feeding the
Georgian rumor mill to help the extra-parliamentary
opposition succeed in forcing an early change in government.
Wild rumors are a standard part of the Georgian political
landscape, but it is unclear whether the rumors were
initially generated internally or externally. In any event,
an apparent disinformation campaign is heating up. Both the
opposition and Russia appear to believe that they can erode
Saakashvili's support by intimating that the U.S. wants him
replaced, hoping this will pave the way for new elections,
granting both the Russians and the Georgian opposition their
wish of a Georgia without Saakashvili. End Summary/Comment

A Mysterious but Familiar Letter


2. (C) Post has a copy of a purported Embassy memo dated
October 27, 2008 written by a non-existent "Senior Counsellor
Jonathan Earl" to Ambassador Tefft outlining an increasingly
problematic President Saakashvili. (Embassy Note: Letter
will be forwarded on unclassified system to the Georgia Desk.
End Note.) The memo uses Embassy letter head and is
purportedly from the consular section in Tbilisi. The letter
which is clearly written by a non-native English speaker with
phrases such as "(t)o our opinion, it is thereupon especially
noteworthy that our source in Ministry of State Security of
Georgia reports security officials to express more and more
often discontent with President Saakashvili, criticizing most
of his recent decisions in the lobbies." The lack of, or
misplaced use of articles and word order tend to indicate a

native Russian speaker. Embassy officers who have worked in
Central Asia recalled similar letters being circulated in
Bishkek and Tashkent expressing dissatisfaction with the
ruling regime. The letter allegedly shows Embassy discontent
with Saakashvili's handling of the economy; irrational
personal behavior; working with the EU "behind our back;" and
corruption. The letter advises the Ambassador to work with
opposition leaders whom we regard as acceptable substitutes
to replace Saakashvili.

Tabloids Picking Up the "News"


3. (C) In December, the Tabloid Kronika reported that the
"future of Georgian politics is now being decided in John
Tefft's residence". The article goes on to allege that the
Ambassador has been having meetings about changing the
governmental structure of Georgia to a model based on the
German Parliamentary system. The article surmises that the
U.S. supports 50-50 parity in the Parliament to limit
Saakashvili's power. Kronika reports that Minister of
Interior Vano Merabishvili and Prosecutor General Zurab
Adeishvili (Embassy Note: Adeishvili is currently the
Minister of Justice. End Note.) have been frequent guests to
the Ambassador's residence recently. (Embassy Note. Neither
has been to the residence in recent months. End note.)
QKronika reported that Senator Kerry discussed the "U.S.
suggested model" with Saakashvili during his December visit.
Kronika also speculates that Saakashvili will move to
implement this U.S. model to preempt being overthrown in
April.

Some Opposition Picking Up the Ball and Running


4. (C) Dima Shashkin (strictly protect),Director of the
local International Republican Institute (IRI) office, told
us that New Rights, the Republicans, and Nino Burjanadze were
all seeking to capitalize on these stories, although they
were not the sources of the rumors. Burjanadze, as well as
her supporters, apparently is hinting that she is the U.S.
choice for President while New Rights and Republicans are
touting Irakli Alasania as the preferred U.S. candidate.
Zurab Tkemaladze (Leader of Industrialists) confirmed the
same to Poloff. Giorgi Targamadze (Leader of Christian
Democrats) has also heard the rumors, telling Poloff that new
elections would only benefit the Russians. MP Jondi
Bahgaturi (Independent) likewise said that the rumors serve
only the purposes of the non-Parliamentary opposition and one
does not need to look any further then at who is peddling
them. It remains to be seen what effect the signing of the

TBILISI 00000055 002 OF 002


U.S.-Georgia charter and the upcoming change in U.S.
administrations will have on these rumors, although both
should serve to tamp down some speculation about U.S.
intentions at least temporarily.


5. (C) The non-Parliamentary opposition has made clear its
desire for Saakashvili's resignation. With little chance of
that happening and early parliamentary elections looking
increasingly unlikely, the scenarios to force the removal of
Saakashvili from office are becoming increasingly outlandish.
However, politicians across the spectrum from Kakha Kukava
(Conservatives) to the Christian Democrats have told us that
the public is taking them seriously. The phony letter and
dubious news reports of meetings seemingly are efforts to
backfill some factual credibility into the rumors. All the
commentators have told us a similar reasoning behind the
rumors. The U.S. supported Shevarnadze and replaced him with
Saakashvili when Shevarnadze became unacceptable. Now the
U.S. views Saakashvili as unacceptable and will replace him
with Alasania or Burjanadze. They also said that being
perceived as having U.S. support is key to political success
in Georgia and if Saakashvili is deemed to have lost U.S.
"support", it could negatively affect him. However, none
expressed the view that Saakashvili was in any political
danger.


6. (C) Tkemaladze told Poloff that political observers in
Tbilisi are watching anxiously for signs of U.S. intentions,
something that is heightened by the impending change in U.S.
administrations. Tkemaladze says speculation is rife about
David Gamkrelidze and David Usupashili's role in some sort of
grand plan. Tkemaladze noted that both have had numerous
meetings with U.S. officials and visitors. (Embassy Note:
The two were involved in many opposition roundtables as a
matter of course during the numerous high level post-war
visits. End Note.) Tkemaladze also noted both travel
frequently to the U.S. Tkemaladze alleged that at some
point, Gamkrelidze and Usupashvili were told by a senior U.S.
official to unite their parties and step back to pave the way
for Alasania to lead this newly formed opposition party.
Tkemaladze says it makes some sense because it is virtually
unheard of in Georgian politics for anybody to give up the
top spot. While our interlocutors all denied having put any
stock in the rumors and no on took credit for starting them,
Giorgi Targamadze thought enough of them to approach Dima
Shashkin in what Shashkin described as a panic and every one
who commented explained to Poloff in great detail why they
theoretically could be true. Despite the dubious merits, the
rumors have created a stir even among sophisticated actors
and will undoubtedly continue to make the rounds in Tbilisi.
TEFFT