GEORGIA: SKEPTICAL VIEW ON CAUCASUS STABILITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TBILISI 000223

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/04/2019
TAGS: PGOV GG TK
SUBJECT: GEORGIA: SKEPTICAL VIEW ON CAUCASUS STABILITY
PLATFORM

REF: ANKARA 00137

Classified By: CHARGE D'AFFAIRES A.I. KENT LOGSDON FOR REASONS 1.4 (B)
AND (D)


1. (C) SUMMARY/COMMENT. In a frank discussion, MFA
International Organizations Director Sergi Kapanadze made it
clear that the Georgians have no hope that anything
substantive will come out of the Turkish proposed Caucasus
Stability and Cooperation Platform, now or in the future, but
were unwilling to be seen as the instigators of a collapse of
the forum. He noted that the late January talks were the
"strangest" he had ever been involved in, as every party
aside from the Turks had no interest in accomplishing
anything other than an airing of mutual recriminations, but
no one wanted to be blamed for obstructing the talks.
Kapanadze, who accompanied Georgian delegation head Deputy
Minister Giga Bokeria to the meeting, expected that Georgia
will continue to participate in the Platform, but will also
look to slow down meetings, water down any goals, and
otherwise try to placate the Turks in what they view as a
relatively harmless attempt to exert influence from Ankara
into the Caucasus. However, he did acknowledge that the
forum could turn out to be a useful place to discuss other
issues in the future. END SUMMARY.

THE TURKISH PROPOSAL - "JUST STRANGE"


2. (C) Poloffs met with Georgian Director of the Department
of International Organizations at MFA on February 4 to
discuss Georgian views on the Turkish-led Caucasus Stability
and Cooperation Platform (CSCP). Promising at the outset to
speak frankly, Director Kapanadze stressed the sheer
strangeness of the late January CSCP meeting in Ankara, which
included representatives from Azerbaijan, Armenia, Georgia,
Russia, and Turkey; Georgia was represented by Deputy Foreign
Minister Giga Bokeria. He noted that of these five seats at
the table, four are made up of odd couples that do not want
to talk to each other, and the fifth is completely aware of
the near term futility of talks, but firmly committed to the
possible national prestige associated with sponsoring a forum
for regional cooperation. While the parties disagreed on
most issues of substance, no party wanted to be seen as
responsible for any breakdown in talks. When asked about any
contact between the Russian and Georgian delegations,
Kapanadze said that nothing occurred beyond the typical
"quarrels" often seen in official gatherings, and that
neither side seemed interested in anything more. In separate
conversatios with Emboffs, Deputy FM Bokeria relayed a
similar cynical view towards the talks.

THE SLOWER THE BETTER


3. (C) Kapanadze stressed that, in his opinion, the primary
goal of the Turks in the CSCP was to orchestrate a future
ministerial level meeting, which no other party wanted. Both
the Azeris and Georgians openly opposed such a high-level
meeting, the Armenians quietly noted their opposition, and
the Russians generally appeared to be uninterested in
anything. If pushed, the Georgians would be amenable to a
future meeting at the Deputy Minister level, but do not
believe it would result in anything outside of a weak
non-paper that avoids serious issues. According to him, the
Armenians were opposed to a Deputy Ministerial-level meeting.
Kapanadze stated that they are open to continuing the
dialogue, but prefer less frequent meetings, and plan on
telling the Turks that they prefer not to meet again until
April or later as they are otherwise "busy."

A NON-DRAFT OF A NON-PAPER


4. (C) When asked about the status of any draft of a
Q4. (C) When asked about the status of any draft of a
statement or communique from the Ankara meeting, Kapanadze
stated that the Georgians were waiting for a "quasi-draft" of
a non-paper, but that it was getting progressively shorter as
well as worsening in substance as the parties viewed what the
Turks had compiled into a draft and requested changes. At
best, a watered down non-paper could be the result of a
future gathering, but he stressed his own view of the small
probability such a document would ever be completed.
Instead, he believed that the most that could achieved was a
ministerial meeting sometime well in the future that
accomplished relatively little. While not desirable, the
Georgians appear to be slightly more open to this than the
Armenians.

GEORGIAN VIEWS ON TURK MOTIVATIONS


5. (C) Kapanadze thought that the CSCP was a pet project of
senior Turkish officials who surely understood its minimal

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chance for success, but regardless was viewed as essential by
a Turkish government eager to increase its prestige in the
region. Kapanadze noted that the Turks had nothing to lose
by organizing such meetings under the auspices of the CSCP,
and even he said that it could turn out to be a useful venue
to discuss issues in the future. However, the participants
besides Turkey seem unwittingly to have agreed on the need to
minimize the importance of the forum. Georgia was more than
willing to take part, comfortable in the knowledge that there
was little to lose. They believed that the other countries,
equally eager to not have any negative publicity arise from a
overt failure, had similar positions.


LOGSDON
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LOGSDON