GEORGIA: AMBASSADOR FRIED MEETS WITH GOVERNMENT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TBILISI 001525

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/09/2019
TAGS: PREL PGOV RR GG
SUBJECT: GEORGIA: AMBASSADOR FRIED MEETS WITH GOVERNMENT
LEADERS, DISCUSSES RUSSIA-GEORGIA SITUATION

Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Kent D. Logsdon for Reasons 1.4 (b) an
d (d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: During his visit to Tbilisi on August 5
and 6, Special Envoy for Guantanamo Bay Ambassador Daniel
Fried met with a range of senior Georgian officials,
including Minister of Foreign Affairs Grigol Vashadze,
Secretary of the National Security Council Eka
Tkeshelashvili, Minister of Internal Affairs Vano
Merabishvili, and Minister of Defense David Sikharulidze.
During these meetings, much of the discussion revolved around
the ongoing tension in the South Caucasus on the eve of the
anniversary of the August 2008 war with Russia, and Georgian
assurances that they would not be the cause of any renewed
fighting. Vashadze stressed that the Georgian government was
lying "lower than grass," and Tkeshelashvili noted her belief
that events were moving in a positive direction following a
tense weekend. Sikharulidze commented that though the
situation remains tense, he did not think the Russians were
positioned in an offensive military posture. He further said
that the alert status the Russian military had engaged in the
entire North Caucasus region was rather to keep Georgia
nervous. He expressed concern that the Russians have started
to work on military infrastructure in the disputed
territories. End Summary.

LYING LOWER THAN GRASS


2. (C) During his meeting with Minister of Foreign Affairs
Grigol Vashadze, Ambassador Fried stressed the significance
of the high level engagement in the current tension by senior
policymakers in Washington, citing phone calls from both the
President to the Russian President and from the Vice
President to the Georgian President. Ambassador Fried urged
continued Georgian strategic patience in solving its
separatist problems and urged Georgia not to fall into any
traps laid by the separatists or Russians during this tense
period. Vashadze expressed his appreciation for the support
of Georgia from Washington, and noted the more positive
strategic position currently enjoyed by Tbilisi in comparison
to Moscow as it tried to handle the separatist areas.
Describing Russia's positions towards South Ossetia and
Abkhazia as attempting to carry "two suitcases without
handles," Vashadze said that the economic and political
situation in Russia was continuing to worsen, and the
difficult positioning left by the tactical success of the
August 2008 war was increasingly realized by the Russians.
He was convinced that Russia did not want a new war, and
would not push it much further in the near term. He noted
that President Obama's call to Medvedev had been salutary for
the Russians, who may have hoped to be able to pressure
Georgia "in the dark" without U.S. reaction.

RUSSIAN DIFFICULTIES


3. (C) Vashadze emphasized his belief that the Russians had
significant concerns about the status of their economy, with
unemployment increasing and inflation running at 15 percent,
while the Georgian economy was relatively stable and
certainly better than that of any of the CIS countries. He
noted that everywhere the Russians went, they were forced to
talk about the Georgia issue, and they had no coherent or
realistic policy towards Georgia other than to keep the
Georgian government off balance and scare away foreign direct
investment. He believed that the war had resulted in
strategic losses for Russia, including cutting off Armenia
and increasing the desire of the west to continue expanding
pipelines and resource infrastructure in Georgia so as to
bypass Russia. Vashadze also speculated that the Russians
Qbypass Russia. Vashadze also speculated that the Russians
had interest in causing tension and provoking incidents in
Georgia during the anniversary of the August 2008 war based
on a strong desire to talk specifically about the causes of
last year's war. Vashadze stated that according to a friend
he recently visited in Europe, Russians were redeploying OMON
units from their home regions to other areas because of a
growing concern that they would not follow orders to subdue
unruly crowds if those crowds were friends and family from
the same towns and neighborhoods.

GEORGIAN NSC DIRECTOR FOCUSED BUT CONFIDENT


4. (C) In a lunch meeting with Secretary of the National
Security Council Eka Tkeshelashvili, Ambassador Fried
reiterated points that the Georgian government must be calm,
calculating, and patient as it sought to win the strategic
dialogue with the Russians about the future of the separatist
zones. Tkeshelashvili was confident in the Georgian
government's ability to weather this most recent storm and
survive relatively unscathed, and believed that thus far
events were moving in a positive direction. She stressed
that the most disturbing thing for the Russian government was
that the Saakashvili government did not fall either during or

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after the war in August 2008, and instead managed to survive
in a "decent way." She was confident that the prospects for
the future, both politically and economically, were quite
good, and relations with Europeans also continued to improve.
In assessing Moscow, she stated that while there was a
willingness to do something militarily in Georgia, pragmatism
and a sense that significant action would be immediately
denounced internationally was restraining them. Events over
the weekend were concerning, particularly what she viewed as
a media campaign ("probing the ground" as she called it) to
gauge the willingness of the international community to
engage. Since the strong response from the Americans and a
weaker, but still important, EU statement, the risk of war
had been significantly reduced.

ECONOMY FRAGILE BUT STABLE


5. (C) She believed that a proposed free trade agreement
with the EU was moving forward, in spite of some significant
negotiating hurdles necessary to clear before any final
agreement. While this would be a boon to the Georgian
economy, there remained a sense of fragility that continues
to impede the economy and overall interest of foreign
investors to stake long term claims in Georgia. While
investment flows obviously dropped significantly following
the war in August 2008, the naturally conservative Georgian
banking sector managed to survive certainly better than its
counterparts in Russia and even parts of the west. She noted
that Georgia only receives 10 percent of its gas from Russia,
and events in2006 taught the government the importance of
diversification.

DEFENSE MINISTER CALM; DOESN'T RULE OUT FUTURE AGGRESSION


6. (C) In his meeting with Defense Minister David
Sikharulidze, Ambassador Fried mentioned and expressed
agreement with the point made by NSC Secretary Eka
Tkeshelashvili that the Russians were testing the Georgians
psychologically. He emphasized the need for Georgian
restraint, and stressed that Georgia needs to make the story
about the Russians being provocative, rather than the
Georgians being unstable. The Minister reiterated the need
for proper, targeted responses to recent Russian press
outlets accusing Georgia of shelling South Ossetia, including
the EUMM statement on August 1 denying that they had seen
evidence to confirm any firing had taken place toward
Tskhinvali. The Minister expressed concern that Russia has
started to work on military infrastructure in the disputed
territories. Though Sikharulidze noted that the Russian
military had declared an alert status for the entire Northern
Caucasus region, including air units, he perceived the move
as an effort to keep Georgianervous rather than pre
paration for aggressive action.

TROOP READINESS, EUMM and NATO


7. (C) Minister Sikharulidze discussed Georgian troop
readiness, stating that the normal 30 percent of the Georgian
military is in barracks at this time and they are following
their regular training cycles. He also mentioned that all
air equipment that Georgia currently has is operable, and
that they are working on special anti-armor and anti-tank
units. He said that the Georgian MOD's main priority is
education and that the ministry recently announced a tender
on the rebuilding of a defense academy. The Minister
further stated that the Georgian Joint Staff is continually
working on contingency and operation plans, and that they
have asked for U.S. assistance. Sikharulidze raised the
upcoming anti-insurgency training of Georgian infantry by the
Qupcoming anti-insurgency training of Georgian infantry by the
Marines, with Sikharulidze expressing appreciation for the
assistance. Sikharulidze described relations with EUMM,
stating that Georgia gives EUMM access to Georgian military
bases, invites EUMM to all military exercises and works to
develop good relations between Georgian military commanders
and EUMM officers. On NATO membership, Sikharulidze
mentioned that, by keeping the situation on the ground tense
andtrying to prevent investment in Georgia, Russia's
ultimate goal is to encourage Europeans not to take Georgia's
prospect for NATO membership seriously. Sikharulidze stated
that Georgia places great importance on continuing to work on
technical issues which will lead to NATO membership.
Ambassador Fried, agreeing that working on technical military
development for NATO is positive, encouraged the Minister to
focus on economic development and security. Fried further
agreed that the EUMM has proven its value. However, he noted
many hurdles to U.S. involvement, including an EU willingness
to enlarge the mission.


8. (U) Ambassador Fried has cleared on this cable.
LOGSDON