GEORGIA: DISCONTENT IN ABKHAZIA WITH RUSSIA'S WARM

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TBILISI 001035

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/02/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL PREF MOPS KBTS RU GG
SUBJECT: GEORGIA: DISCONTENT IN ABKHAZIA WITH RUSSIA'S WARM
EMBRACE

REF: A. TBILISI 924

B. TBILISI 1034

C. TBILISI 321

D. 08 TBILISI 2174

Classified By: AMBASSADOR JOHN F. TEFFT FOR REASONS 1.4 B AND D


1. (C) Summary and comment. According to press reporting and
the Abkhaz government-in-exile, civil society groups and
others in Abkhazia have begun to criticize de facto Abkhaz
"president" Sergey Bagapsh for handing Abkhazia over to the
Russians. Opposition leaders and ordinary Abkhaz appear
especially unhappy with the arrival of Russian border guards
on the administrative boundary line. They have also
expressed concern over economic deals made that give Rosneft
an exclusive license to explore for oil and gas deposits in
the Black Sea off the coast of Abkhazia, and the transfer of
management rights of the Sukhumi airport and "Abkhaz" railway
to the Russians. With "presidential" elections slated to be
held in Abkhazia on December 12, opposition figures are
speaking out publicly against these actions. This discontent
is yet another example of Abkhazia's struggle to find a
balance between dependence on Russia for security and
financial resources and their desire for independence. End
summary and comment.

RUSSIA FULLY IN CONTROL


2. (C) On April 30, Russia and Abkhaz de facto authorities
signed an agreement delegating to Russia the authority to
protect the Abkhaz administrative boundary, and the Russian
border guards are well on their way to assuming full
responsibility for the boundary (ref A). On May 26, the
Abkhaz granted a license to state-owned Russian company
Rosneft to develop offshore oil and gas deposits off the
coast of Abkhazia, which are estimated at between 80 and 200
million tons. Earlier, on May 15, de facto Abkhaz officials
granted Russia 10-year management rights to both the rail
system and Sukhumi airport, in exchange for which the
Russians are providing the Abkhaz with a two million ruble
credit for railway reconstruction work (ref B).


3. (C) While Bagapsh has stressed that this is only a
temporary transfer, the Abkhaz population sees this as one
more sign that their territory is being handed over to the
Russians, according to Malkhaz Akishbaia, Chairman of the
Governent of the Autonomous Republic of Abkhazia (in exile).
Akishbaia maintains strong contacts in Abkhazia and believes
that ordinary Abkhaz citizens are distressed by what they see
as the Russian takeover of Abkhazia. He highlighted the
Upper Kodori region (an ethnic Georgian area) as another
example of Russian control, as only six or seven Abkhaz
militia are stationed with 350 Russian border guards. He
said that the Russians are attempting to circumvent local
property laws, which require Abkhaz "citizenship" to own
land. He reported that the Russians are inventorying all
houses and property in Gali region in anticipation of
bringing thousands of most likely Russian military personnel
and their families in to Gali.

PUSHING BACK AGAINST RUSSIAN CONTROL


4. (C) Leaders of six political and social organizations in
Abkhazia released a declaration in May criticizing Bagapsh
for allowing the Russians to assume so much control over
their territory and calling for a more balanced relationship
with Russia. The leader of the opposition party Economic
Development, Beslan Butba, who has been mentioned as a
possible "presidential" candidate, issued a similar
statement. The de facto "vice-president" Raul Khajimba
resigned his post on May 26, citing disagreements with
Qresigned his post on May 26, citing disagreements with
Bagapsh over his treatment of the opposition, but also
criticizing the border agreement signed in April with Russia;
he is another possible rival to Bagapsh. Perhaps with an eye
on the December elections, Bagapsh was recently quoted in The
New York Times stating that the independence of Abkhazia was
one of his main concerns. He noted that he had pushed back
on the Russians several times when they wanted more from
Abkhazia then he was supposedly willing to concede.
Akishbaia said that while the last election, in 2005, was
split among Abkhaz, the Georgians voted as a bloc for
Bagapsh, and that recently Bagapsh's party, United Abkhazia,
had been treating the Georgians in Gali better in an attempt
to again win their vote in December. According to Akishbaia,
the Georgians in Gali still support Bagapsh because, despite
their disappointment in his policies since the conflict, he
is at least a familiar face to them.

COMMENT


TBILISI 00001035 002 OF 002



5. (C) Although few would call Abkhaz local politics
democratic, it appears there is some room for public debate.
In the lead up to "presidential" elections in December, it is
instructive that the one issue Bagapsh's rivals have seized
upon is his enthusiastic embrace of Russian influence.
Ironically, Russia opposed Bagapsh and supported Khajimba in
the last "presidential" election - and now Khajimba is
criticizing Bagapsh for being too close to Moscow, while
Bagapsh must defend those ties. Although the ethnic Abkhaz
and Armenian residents of Abkhazia are still strongly
supportive of independence, they clearly have become quite
uncomfortable with the true impact of Russia's actions. As
one Abkhaz from Sukhumi joked to EmbOff, "we used to have our
freedom, but now we have our independence."
TEFFT