UZBEKISTAN: SCENE SETTER FOR US TRANSCOM COMMANDER GENERAL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TASHKENT 000575

SIPDIS
US TRANSCOM FOR KATHY JOHNSON-CASARES AND TIMOTHY PEPLAW
AMEMBASSY HELSINKI PASS TO AMCONSUL ST PETERSBURG
AMEMBASSY MOSCOW PASS TO AMCONSUL VLADIVOSTOK
AMEMBASSY MOSCOW PASS TO AMCONSUL YEKATERINBURG
AMEMBASSY BELGRADE PASS TO AMEMBASSY PODGORICA
AMEMBASSY ATHENS PASS TO AMCONSUL THESSALONIKI

E.O. 12958: DECL: 2019/04/24
TAGS: MARR PREL PGOV UZ
SUBJECT: UZBEKISTAN: SCENE SETTER FOR US TRANSCOM COMMANDER GENERAL
MCNABB

CLASSIFIED BY: Timothy P. Buckley, Second Secretary, Department of
State, Political and Economic Section; REASON: 1.4(B),(D)


1. (C) Summary: In the context of the roll out of the new strategy
for Afghanistan and the signing of the exchange of letters on
transit, your visit is an opportunity to reinforce the message that
Afghanistan is a common endeavor in which the United States and
Uzbekistan are partners. Although the Uzbek agreement on transit
reflects a recognition of their own national interest in
Afghanistan, our overall bilateral relationship remains delicate.
Our message to the Uzbeks is that while our relationship continues
to be multifaceted, we are prepared to engage with them in a
pragmatic and constructive dialogue across the full range of
issues. Afghanistan transit and the possible commercial cooperation
associated with it can serve to build trust and strengthen this
relationship. In the meantime, however, the GOU continues to view
our intentions with a great deal of suspicion, a tendency that is
amplified by Russia and the proclivity to view U.S. interests in
the region through the nineteenth century lens of the Great Game.
End Summary.

Afghanistan Transit

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2. (C) Considering the state of our bilateral relationship with
Uzbekistan several years ago, the signing of the agreement on the
Northern Distribution Network (NDN) represents a major step forward
on cooperation toward the shared goal of stabilizing Afghanistan;
it also presents the opportunity to deepen engagement in the
commercial realm. Indications are that the GOU is looking forward
to this visit and to discussing opportunities for further
cooperation, particularly relating to efforts to develop a
logistics hub at Navoi Airport.


3. (C) The cargoes of the first two test rail shipments reached
Afghanistan quickly and the recent air cargo delivery via
Uzbekistan's nascent transportation hub at Navoi Airport has gone
smoothly, with freight already moving through Afghanistan to
Kandahar. Additionally, the GOU has responded affirmatively to
your offer to host a cross-ministry group of GOU logistics experts
to various TRANSCOM operational sites in the United States the week
of July 26, 2009, and expressed their appreciation for the offer.
Approval of shipments since the April 3 signing of the NDN
agreement has been slower than desired, but is still well within
the thirty-day window that we agreed to in the exchange of letters.
Our impression is that the GOU is still working out the kinks in
its approval process and it is our hope that these authorizations
will move more quickly going forward. All the same, it is in
keeping with GOU practice in other areas to wait until the last
minute to make a decision and it is possible they will routinely
take the full 30 days.

Addressing Misinformation

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4. (C) Central Asia is fertile ground for rumors and conspiracy
theories. The Russian-language media that dominates this region
eagerly propagates rumors and offers a substantial amplifying
effect. One recent Russian television broadcast repeated a story
that has been circulating for some time already alleging that the
U.S. military is complicit in the narcotics trade in Afghanistan
and is using Manas for this purpose. Meetings here will be an
opportunity to assure the GOU that US airfields in Afghanistan are
operationally secure and well-protected. Commercial-contract
aircraft arrive safely every day, including Russian carriers and
other global air cargo carriers.

Commercial Navoi-to-Afghanistan options

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5. (C) The GOU's budding Navoi Transportation hub and adjacent Free

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Industrial-Economic Zone (FIEZ) is being followed very closely by
the most senior levels of the GOU leadership. The GOU continues to
pour money into this project, which benefits from critical advice
and assistance from the South Korean logistics conglomerate Hanjin
Group (and subsidiary Korean Air). The Navoi hub is mentioned
specifically in the US-Uzbek Transit Agreement. However, currently
there are GOU-imposed prohibitions on both aircraft
freight-forwarding and truck-freight-forwarding from Navoi to
Afghanistan, in that shipments must be trans-loaded from aircraft
or rail at Navoi to truck for follow-on delivery to Afghanistan.
Another trans-load is necessary at the Afghan port city of
Hairaton. This is an opportunity to communicate to GOU leaders
that such restrictions preclude the full use of Navoi as an air hub
in support cargo transit to Afghanistan. Specifically, if US
contract or other third party air cargo carriers were permitted to
fly to Afghanistan from Navoi, USTRANSCOM could easily and
immediately conduct six commercial air cargo landings a week by 747
freighters and arrange 12 follow-on air tender deliveries per week.
USTRANSCOM does not need Navoi Airport to move supplies into
Afghanistan; however, it can help provide an instant commercial
customer base for this multi-model hub. In addition, the U.S.
Government and USTRANSCOM can also help attract to Navoi other U.S.
government contractors such as DHL, UPS and FEDEX. The Navoi hub
concept will long outlast the Afghan stabilization effort; but
during its initial development phase, USTRANSCOM could be a helpful
business partner. The recent test air cargo shipment to Navoi
required two trans-load operations, making Navoi a costly shipping
option at this time. If this trans-load requirement and inability
to flight-forward to Afghanistan remains, Navoi will be viable only
for a very limited number of air cargo flights.

Local Procurement and CENTCOM J4 Command MG Dowd visit

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6. (C) We are actively pursuing local purchase options in
Uzbekistan, which we believe to be a key element for a long-term
partnership with the Uzbeks in support of Afghanistan. The Uzbek
Ministry of Foreign Economic Relations, Investment and Trade has
been very forthcoming in helping the U.S. military logistics
purchasers conduct a local market survey, and to conduct the recent
successful USVETCOM food safe inspections of seven local foodstuff
and beverage producers. At present, all Central Asian countries
including Azerbaijan are involved, but the effort is moving faster
in Uzbekistan than anywhere else. As part of the local purchase
endeavor, we suggest that you propose that MG Dowd, CCJ4 at
USCENTCOM visit Uzbekistan in late June 2009 to view transit
facilities and local purchase options (with a particular focus on
construction materials). MG Dowd will also update the Uzbek
Minister of Defense on possible further assistance related to their
MOD's inventory of Harris radios.
BUTCHER